Welcome to the 2021 Dynasty Football Week 11 Stock Watch.
One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater. Each player has one game of data from which to draw conclusions, and we certainly have no problems with that exercise.
We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season. But we can also draw conclusions from a Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity this week? Who saw it fall due to their own performance? Perhaps most importantly, did the performance of teammates affect the opportunity?
This weekly piece will look at each week's games from a Dynasty Football mindset. I will gather information on whose stock has risen and whose is falling as we make the long-term decisions about our Dynasty franchises.
2021 Dynasty Football Week 11 Stock Watch
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AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
We never want fantasy and dynasty options to open up this way, but AJ Dillon is about to get a promotion from understudy to leading role thanks to the MCL injury suffered by Aaron Jones on Sunday. The irony is, however, that Dillon was starting to get much more of the featured performances before Sunday, and he passed his auditions.
Dillon had been hovering around 40% of snaps in Week 6-9 and that bumped up to 49% in Week 10 thanks to the injury. Dillon responded with 128 total yards and two touchdowns. Even in a back-up role, Dillon averaged the 16th most yards per touch coming into Week 10, so if he is thrust into 75% of the snaps for the next two weeks, this has the potential to be a high-end RB1 against the Vikings and Rams.
This is unfortunately Aaron Jones' nightmare Wally Pipp scenario, where Dillon comes in and is overwhelmingly the better back, allowing the Packers to exercise the out they have in Jones' contract after 2022. Don't be surprised if the timeshare favors Dillon moving forward, sending his dynasty value to the moon.
Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots
Mac Jones may have been the fifth quarterback taken in a loaded draft back in April, but he is quickly showing why he is number one among all rookie QBs in fantasy points. On Sunday, he did something no other Patriots rookie has ever done. Yes, even the GOAT (because Brady played only one game his rookie year).
Mac Jones is the first rookie in Patriots franchise history with at least three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a single game.
— Morgan ???? (@SheTalksNFL) November 15, 2021
Jones also now has the Patriots in playoff position, which is something the other rookie quarterbacks can't even sniff right now.
He looks poised beyond his years, ranking second in the NFL in completion percentage when pressured, and he's money when it counts. His 62.8% completion percentage in the Red Zone ranks tenth among all quarterbacks.
For a first half of a rookie, season, Jones is doing more than anyone expected, including his dynasty managers. His stock continues to climb each week and likely isn't anywhere close to it's peak.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Answer this question without looking ahead: How old is Josh Jacobs?
The right answer is just 23, and he won't turn 24 until after the Super Bowl. He just seems much, much older because the injuries are already piling up and the efficiency and playing time are starting to suffer.
Jacobs peaked in Weeks 4-6 with about 66% of Las Vegas snaps. But since that time he has been on the field for 36.4%, 49.3% and 57.4% most recently in Week 10. This just happens to coincide with Jon Gruden's termination and a shift to a much-more pass-happy approach for the Raiders.
In the last three weeks, Las Vegas passes at the sixth-highest rate in the league (65.2%) and those just aren't the downs where Jacobs is on the field. In fact, Jacobs has 13 total targets in his last four games. Backfield partner Kenyan Drake has 11 just in his last two.
The truth of the matter is that Jacobs has been on the injury report for chest, ankle, knee and toe injuries since the beginning of 2020. He has missed four games in that span. But more concerning than that is the league-wide shift away from plodding bell-cow backs to a more dynamic, multi-back approach.
If Jacobs puts up another couple games this year, consider that your window to sell.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I don't care who you are, a 3:2 touchdown to interception ratio over five games is not going to help you win ball games. This is exactly what Trevor Lawrence has done over the last five games, leaving dynasty owners scratching their heads.
For supposedly the best quarterback prospect to come out of college since Andrew Luck, it has been mostly disappointing. Of his nine games, six of them produced a passer rating of 70 or below and he enters Week 11 with more interceptions than passing touchdowns.
Volume hasn't been the issue for Lawrence, it's not that the Jaguars are bringing him along slowly. His team ranks twelfth in pass plays per game and Jacksonville has the seventh-highest pass rate in the league. It's been a disappointing combination of passing scheme plus inaccuracy that is sinking Lawrence's fantasy season.
T-Law ranks 26th among quarterbacks in air yards per attempt and 29th in adjusted yards per attempt. Alright, that makes sense, they aren't trying to make him do too much in his first season; get him some easy throws he can complete. Well then try and make sense of the fact that he is 29th in accuracy rating as well. It just hasn't clicked for Lawrence through nine games, and I fear as long as he is under this repressive Urban Meyer regime, we may not see him break out.
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