Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Week 12 Stock Watch

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Welcome to the 2021 Dynasty Football Week 12 Stock Watch.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater. Each player has one game of data from which to draw conclusions, and we certainly have no problems with that exercise.

We tend to evaluate each week’s Fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season. But we can also draw conclusions from a Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity this week? Who saw it fall due to their own performance? Perhaps most importantly, did the performance of teammates affect the opportunity?

This weekly piece will look at each week’s games from a Dynasty Football mindset. I will gather information on whose stock has risen and whose is falling as we make the long-term decisions about our Dynasty franchises.

2021 Dynasty Football Week 12 Stock Watch

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Stock Up

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Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

Before Sunday, Gaskin’s career-high in rush attempts came on September 24, 2020. In Week 11, Gaskin rushed the ball 23 times against a hapless Jets rush defense and added three catches plus a touchdown through the air.

Gaskin’s 73.6% snap share was also a season-high, besting the 72% he posted against another awful rush defense by the Houston Texans. It’s clear the Dolphins’ coaching staff is starting to trust Gaskin with a bigger role and that trust is well-deserved, especially in the passing game.

Gaskin currently ranks fourth among running backs with 48 targets, fifth in receptions with 38 and seventh in routes run (174). In fact, when Gaskin ran just 22 routes on Sunday, it was a significant disappointment.

The “every odd week he’s good” theory may come true the next couple of games as Gaskin gets the Panthers in Week 12 and the New York Giants in Week 13. But as the RB16 in PPR through 11 Weeks even after missing a game to injury, the arrow is pointing up every week for Gaskin.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

In a week where Goedert caught five balls for just 62 yards, we might not think that was particularly noteworthy. But the circumstances around those two numbers in the box score are what send Goedert’s stock soaring this week.

Yes, it was just five catches for 62 yards, but Goedert saw a season-high in targets with eight, he was fourth in the position in snaps at 96.2%, and now he has a 26.3% target share the last three weeks. Plus, I don’t care what you or the refs say, Dallas Goedert scored a touchdown in Week 11, he just got a terrible spot on that ball from Jalen Hurts.

But perhaps the biggest recent news for Goedert and his Dynasty managers was that the Eagles committed to him by way of a four-year, $57 million contract this week. This will keep in Goedert in Philly through his age 30 season and should pair him with Jalen Hurts during that time, with whom he is quickly developing a rapport.

Up next Goedert gets the Giants who just allowed nine catches for 108 to the Bucs tight ends.

Stock Down

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Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers

With Elijah Mitchell out, the last few Trey Sermon apologists were holding out hope that the 49ers third-round pick would see a large chunk of field time, backing up Jeff Wilson against the Jaguars.

It would quickly be clear that was not going to happen, as Sermon saw just 10 rush attempts in the game, and five of those were in run out the clock mode when San Francisco was already ahead by multiple scores. In a week where the 49ers were down their primary back, Sermon saw just 9% of snaps.

This now makes five of six games where Sermon has 10 or fewer rush attempts and he has four targets all season as well. Perhaps we can take solace in the fact that Sermon was actually active for this game, but Kyle Shanahan’s comments this week made it clear they see Sermon well, well behind both Mitchell and Wilson.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

You may not have noticed, but the Chiefs’ shift away from relying on Mecole Hardman has officially begun. After two and a half seasons of inconsistency and unreliability, Kansas City it starting to move towards different receivers for their prized, $500 million dollar quarterback.

In Weeks 1-9, Hardman saw more than 52% of snaps eight of nine weeks, with seven of those granting him at least 60% of the snaps. In the past two weeks, Hardman has been on the field for 32% of snaps in Week 10 and just 18% of snaps in Week 11.

Conversely, Byron Pringle saw his first two weeks of at least 60% snaps in Weeks 10 and 11. His time on the field in Week 11 only added up to 37 yards with no scores, but Pringle was at 46 yards and a score in Week 10.

Hardman forced the Chiefs’ hand here by being unable to break free on his routes. Hardman ranks 51st in average cushion and 45th in target separation this season. It’s officially time to cut bait in almost all formats if the tides continue to drift towards Pringle.


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About Ryan Kirksey

Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. In my week I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long content, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. Astros apologist. Team Terry #McSoarin

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