Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Week 13 Stock Watch


Welcome to the 2021 Dynasty Football Week 13 Stock Watch.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater. Each player has one game of data from which to draw conclusions, and we certainly have no problems with that exercise.

We tend to evaluate each week’s Fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season. But we can also draw conclusions from a Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity this week? Who saw it fall due to their own performance? Perhaps most importantly, did the performance of teammates affect the opportunity?

This weekly piece will look at each week’s games from a Dynasty Football mindset. I will gather information on whose stock has risen and whose is falling as we make the long-term decisions about our Dynasty franchises.

2021 Dynasty Football Week 13 Stock Watch

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Stock Up

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Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers

There is perhaps no better representation of the frustration that is fantasy football than the juxtaposition of Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon on Sunday. Coming out of the 2021 draft, Trey Sermon received tremendous hype as the latest do-it-all back in a Kyle Shanahan system. Dynasty managers had visions of Arian Foster dancing in their heads.

Fast forward to a few weeks into the season and fantasy managers are emptying their FAB wallets for sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell out of Louisiana University while Sermon languishes on the bench. A couple months later in Week 12, Mitchell crushes the Vikings for 133 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards and a score while Trey Sermon was carted off with an ankle injury on punt coverage. Sad!

Sunday’s game was Mitchell’s sixth of his last eight with at least 17 touches and his 32 times with the ball set a new career-high. In context, a running back touched the ball 32 times in only seven other games this year. Mitchell’s back to back games with 27 rush attempts are both in the top-14 in the entire season. Even with Deebo Samuel playing a hybrid running back role lately, Mitchell is feasting with that much rushing volume.

The 49ers only face one more team in the rest of the fantasy season that does not allow top-14 fantasy production to opposing running backs. But more importantly for dynasty owners, you now have an asset that likely did not cost you a draft pick, but just a portion of your FAB dollars. For all that Sermon was hyped to be, Mitchell is already that player. At age 23, he is on the older side for rookies, but he does look like he is here to stay.

Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

The story on rookie Mac Jones since he was named the starter for the New England Patriots was that he would be a good game manager, accurate, not going to hurt the team, just very safe. A better real life asset than Fantasy asset. But after the best game of his young career Sunday, it may be time to reevaluate how we think about Jones from a Fantasy perspective.

All other rookie quarterbacks taken in the first round had more hype than Jones, but none of them just dismantled the Titans, completing 23 of 32 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions. Before Sunday, the Titans had only allowed 18 passing touchdowns in 11 games but Jones was clinical against them for a season-high 27.5 Fantasy points. But, the excellence and efficiency has been trending in this direction for some time.

For those that thought Jones would need time to marinate and improve in the NFL before taking the leap, you may have lost your shot to acquire him on the cheap. Despite not having any wide receivers inside the top 30 in half-point per reception formats, Jones is QB11 the last four weeks. His stock is clearly on the rise.

Stock Down

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Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

With Jason Garrett unceremoniously run out of town last week, there was a last flicker of hope that perhaps a new offensive scheme and direction for the Giants would ignite that spark into a raging fire of explosive plays for Barkley. Well, Freddie Kitchens and the rest of the Giant’s offense made sure they did everything they could to extinguish that flame as quickly as possible.

Against an Eagles team that allows the ninth-most rushing yards and the second-most running back receptions in the league, Barkley could manage only 40 carries on 13 totes, adding a modest 13 receiving yards on four receptions, That mediocre line was “saved” by one long 32-yard run, which saved an otherwise miserable rushing performance.

Still only 24 years old, Barkley also has only played in 22 of the Giants’ last 44 games. The injuries and general ineptitude of the offensive line led to Barkley’s yards per carry to plummet to 3.6 this season and he is at less than 6.0 yards per touch for the first time in his four-year career.

I can’t imagine how Barkley’s stock can drop any lower than this. His backup, Devontae Booker, has outscored him by 12 Fantasy points this year. It would take unfamiliar good health and a total redo of the offensive philosophy to get Barkley anywhere near his elite play from this rookie year.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

When exactly is it going to all come together for Jerry Jeudy? Way back in Week 1, we thought the ascension was about to take place, only to see Jeudy lost to injury. In the four games since he returned, Jeudy has a total of 18 receptions for 181 yards and no scores.

That makes four straight games under 10 fantasy points in half-point per reception leagues and no scores all season. I do still believe in Jeudy’s underlying talent, of course, and think that most of his struggles have come from inconsistency due to injury and poor quarterback play.

Despite ranking third among all receivers in target separation (according to Player Profiler), Jeudy’s target accuracy ranks 76th this season. There’s just not much you can do when the balls aren’t catchable, even if you’re wide open.

Jeudy also has a good-not-great 23.5% target share. With the Broncos also looking to feed Noah Fant, Tim Patrick, Courtland Sutton and the running backs, there just hasn’t been a big piece of the pie for Jeudy, especially when you consider the Broncos only rank 17th in the league in pass rate.

If you are of the opinion that Aaron Rodgers will be a Denver Bronco next year, it may be time to buy on Jeudy. But it’s going to take a dynamic downfield thrower to truly unlock his potential.

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About Ryan Kirksey

Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. In my week I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long content, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. Astros apologist. Team Terry #McSoarin

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