2021 Dynasty Football Week 3 Stock Watch

by Ryan Kirksey
2022 Dynasty Football Week 18 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2021 Dynasty Football Week 3 Stock Watch.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater. Each player has one game of data from which to draw conclusions, and we certainly have no problems with that exercise.

We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season. But we can also draw conclusions from a Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity this week? Who saw it fall due to their own performance? Perhaps most importantly, did the performance of teammates affect the opportunity?

This weekly piece will look at each week's games from a Dynasty Football mindset. I will gather information on whose stock has risen and whose is falling as we make the long-term decisions about our Dynasty franchises.

2021 Dynasty Football Week 3 Stock Watch

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Stock up

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Tee Higgins

After Ja'Marr Chase stole the headlines with his dominant performance in Week 1, it was Higgins' time in Week 2. Higgins led the Bengals in targets with 10 and grabbed six balls for 60 yards and a score. Once again, the Big Three receivers in Cincinnati are getting the looks, while everyone else is an afterthought.

On Sunday, players not named Chase, Higgins, or Tyler Boyd saw a total of six targets (total of 20%). We can be sure going forward that each of these three pass-catchers will routinely see a 25%+ target share, and Higgins looks like he might lead the pack.

In addition to leading the team in targets this week, Higgins was second on the team in targets last week despite having to leave early to get an IV treatment. He was eighth in the league in target share through Week 2's afternoon games.

Sunday was a rough game for Joe Burrow as it's clear he is still working his way back from ACL surgery, and a ferocious Bears pass rush didn't help things on Sunday. But Higgins was targeted anywhere from the line of scrimmage to 40 yards downfield on Sunday so it's clear the Bengals plan to use him all over the field.

Crazy to think Higgins was drafted just one pick after the player leading the Stock Down section this week. Imagine what might have been...

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Rondale Moore

Call it luck. Call it a busted play. Call it whatever you want. Moore is going to make many more plays similar to his 77-yard touchdown reception on Sunday. The buy-low window - if there ever was one in Dynasty - has now slammed shut. If you don't already have Moore, you're going to be paying a ransom to climb back through that window.

There are two constants that will not change in Arizona this year. First, Kyler Murray has the ability to scramble and avoid pressure better than any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson. Second, Moore has blinding, blazing speed (96th percentile 40-yard dash) that can help him get to any spot at any time to make himself available for Murray.

So not only will there be designed plays for Moore, but he will be the busted play savior plenty this year. Don't worry about the low 3.9 average depth of target. The Cardinals want to give him space in the middle of the field to operate and it won't limit the big plays.

Moore was in for 28 snaps in Week 2 (49% of the offensive total), up from 20 snaps (29%) in Week 1. As his role continues to grow in this offense, he will just become more and more valuable in Dynasty formats.

Stock Down

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Oh boy. Forget for a moment that Edwards-Helaire chose the worst possible moment in the all-eyes-on-us primetime game to lose his first career fumble, giving the game away to the Ravens. Look instead at the accumulation of (anti)production the last two weeks and it is clear the Kansas City Chiefs have a problem on their hands with CEH.

Edwards-Helaire has now started the year with two straight games under 3.5 yards per carry. And after a mildly encouraging three targets and 29 receiving yards in Week 1, Edwards-Helaire did not see a single target against Baltimore in Week 2. The Chiefs basically abandoned throwing to their backs (Jerick McKinnon had one target), which is not a good sign in a game that had 71 total points.

After playing on 72.3% of snaps in Week 1, Edwards-Helaire only played on 33 of 51 offensive snaps Sunday (64.7%). That's trending in the wrong direction considering there are now ball security issues to worry about along with putrid rushing stats and lack of involvement in the passing game.

The Chiefs have two other capable backs in McKinnon and Darrel Williams who may get more playing time after this performance tonight. One thing is for sure. It's now clear that when Fantasy Football Twitter lost their collective minds about CEH and his role with the Chiefs (particularly in the passing game), it was an unfounded mistake.

Marquez Callaway

Remember a month or so ago when we all lucked into drafting Callaway late in Dynasty or in Best Ball formats? LOL, those were the days. Since then?

It turns out Callaway might just be a good preseason player instead of the latest beneficiary of Jameis Winston's YOLO style of passing the football. Winston on Sunday was the bizarro version of the Jameis we saw last week. Against the Packers in Week 1, Winston threw five touchdowns in just 20 pass attempts and was ultra-efficient. Against the Panthers in Week 2, Winston dropped back 26 times and was sacked four times, threw two interceptions and only completed 11 passes.

Callaway, meanwhile, was targeted one more time than Chris Hogan and logged two catches for just eight yards. Now, the Panthers defense might actually be legit this year, but it's clear through two games Sean Payton is not going to play favorites among his receiving corps.

Only Alvin Kamara saw more than four targets Sunday, and a total of seven people were targeted in that game. That's a curiously high number for just 22 pass attempts and doesn't give us any comfort that Callaway will start dominating targets or air yards anytime soon.

His dynasty value has plummeted more than a Bear Stearns mortgage in 2008, but there's not much to do right now but hold if you roster Callaway. His trade value is worthless and we have to hope for better Winston games ahead.


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