Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Week 6 Stock Watch

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Welcome to the 2021 Dynasty Football Week 6 Stock Watch.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater. Each player has one game of data from which to draw conclusions, and we certainly have no problems with that exercise.

We tend to evaluate each week’s Fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season. But we can also draw conclusions from a Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity this week? Who saw it fall due to their own performance? Perhaps most importantly, did the performance of teammates affect the opportunity?

This weekly piece will look at each week’s games from a Dynasty Football mindset. I will gather information on whose stock has risen and whose is falling as we make the long-term decisions about our Dynasty franchises.

2021 Dynasty Football Week 6 Stock Watch

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Stock up

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Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants

Unless your league deducts points for suspensions or punches thrown, you were treated to a top-5 week from Toney in PPR leagues in Week 5. In fact, Toney and Robert Woods were the only players to rank in the top-15 to not score a touchdown. Toney got there with 10 catches on 13 targets for 189 yards in what was his first true breakout game of his career.

Considering the state of the Giants’ wide receiver corps and the eternally unrealized potential of Evan Engram, Toney seems to have immediately vaulted himself to the number one option on his team and a top-15 asset in dynasty formats.

Toney was an elite athletic prospect coming out of the University of Florida last season. He possesses an 86th percentile 40-yard time and a 96th percentile burst score. He put all those on display yesterday with an elite 14.5 yards per target and a 34% target share.

With first round pedigree and a wide open path to usage in the coming weeks, Toney looks like a dynasty-league winner that was selected in the 18th round during draft season.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

I saw a tweet yesterday that posed a simple question. Are we ready to consider Ja’Marr Chase as the dynasty WR1 moving forward. At first I dismissed it as just living in the moment, but after I pondered it for a bit. There may be something to it.

Since Chase sat out the 2020 season, people seem to forget just how dominant he was at LSU in 2019 as a 20-year old. He racked up 84 receptions, 1,780 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns on less than a 20% target share!

Those preseason drops and “I can’t see the ball” issues seem to be a distant memory. Chase has the second-most touchdowns among all wide receivers and ranks eighth in yards per target (11.9) and fifth in air yards share (46.5%) among receivers. Drops? He has one through five weeks.

Chase does not turn 22 until March. With Joe Burrow finally rounding into form after injury, there don’t seem to be many (if any) wide receivers I would trade Chase for if I’m planning for the future.

Stock Down

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Will Fuller, WR, Miami Dolphins

At the end of Fuller’s career, he will surely go down as one of the biggest “what if” players in league history. Whether it is health issues, suspensions, personal problems off the field, we never seem to get the full Will Fuller. We caught a glimpse last season in Houston when Fuller went for 75 targets, 53 receptions, 879 yards and eight touchdowns in just 11 games, but then the suspension came. The only year Fuller played more than 11 games was 13 in his rookie season and now he looks like a long shot to go higher than 11 again this year.

In his absence, we have seen both DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle ascend to playing more than 80% of the Dolphins’ snaps on a weekly basis. In the one full game Fuller shared with those two, he barely cracked 60% of snaps. All of Parker, Waddle, Mike Gisecki and Myles Gaskin hold more than a 14% target share on the season and with Preston Williams holding down 10%, there is just not much of the pie left to feed Fuller, even when he does return from injury.

Fuller is an unrestricted free agent next season, and if the Dolphins are happy with with Waddle and Parker they surely will decide to move on. Parker is owed only $11 million over 2022-2023 and Waddle is on a rookie contract, so even though 90% of Fuller’s salary is in the form of prorated bonus, I am sure Miami would love to clear his $10 million off the books.

Even if Fuller does return healthy and productive, his first five games after the IR stint will be against the Bills, Texans, Ravens, Jets, and Panthers. All five of those teams are in the top-eight in allowing fewest fantasy points in wide receivers. We are likely to be left with “what might have been” with Full again in 2021.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos

Melvin Gordon has been playing well enough to prolong the inevitable Javonte Williams takeover this year. But the signs are starting to become clearer that the Denver Broncos are looking to feature their talented rookie.

On Sunday – just like every week this season – Williams played about 43% of snaps. That number has hovered between 40% and 51% all year, but never less than that. But Week 5 was the first time in the last four games that the number of opportunities for the two backs were equal (both had 11). Williams had more targets (three) on fewer routes run (13). He had one less carry (eight) on 11 fewer snaps. What this tells me is Williams’ utilization rate is much higher per snap that he is on the field.

Williams also seems to have more burst than 28.5 year old Melvin Gordon. Williams broke free for a huge gain of 61 yards while Gordon plodded to 3.8 yards per carry on his nine attempts. And even though the Broncos are struggling a bit to score points, Williams seems to be trending in the right direction for the high-leverage touches. Over the past two weeks, Williams has two of the three rush attempts in the red zone and two of the three targets in that area as well.

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This is a trend to monitor moving forward. The Broncos might continue to be fine with Gordon piling up yards in between the 20’s, but if Williams starts seeing reliable work in the red area, that’s going to present a strong buying opportunity for the rookie and cause the stock to plummet even farther on Gordon.


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About Ryan Kirksey

Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. In my week I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long content, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. Astros apologist. Team Terry #McSoarin

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