Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football Week 8 Stock Watch

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Welcome to the 2021 Dynasty Football Week 8 Stock Watch.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater. Each player has one game of data from which to draw conclusions, and we certainly have no problems with that exercise.

We tend to evaluate each week’s Fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season. But we can also draw conclusions from a Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity this week? Who saw it fall due to their own performance? Perhaps most importantly, did the performance of teammates affect the opportunity?

This weekly piece will look at each week’s games from a Dynasty Football mindset. I will gather information on whose stock has risen and whose is falling as we make the long-term decisions about our Dynasty franchises.

2021 Dynasty Football Week 8 Stock Watch

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Stock Up

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Dante Pettis, WR, New York Giants

Unlike one of the players in the Stock Down section, Dante Pettis managed to escape Kyle Shanahan’s tyrannical dog house and is getting an opportunity to shine with all of the injuries to the New York Giant’s receiving corps. The last two games for the G-Men were the first he has been active this year, but all he is done with that shot is turn it into 16 targets, 10 receptions, 87 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Pettis caught 100% of his targets from Daniel Jones on Sunday, which is not easy to do considering Jones ranks 30th in accuracy rating on the year. He is solidly making a case that even when Sterling Shepard, Kadarious Toney, and Kenny Golladay are available, he should have some kind of role. It seems like Pettis has been around for an eternity waiting for his shot, but he just turned 26 on Saturday and was known for being able to bring down even the toughest balls when in college at Washington.

Pettis had catch rates of 73% and 64% in his last two years in school, which also saw him haul in 22 total touchdowns. He was able to make a small splash in in his rookie year of 2018 with 467 yards and five touchdowns in just 12 games, but injuries and a simple case of not being Shanahan’s favorite held him back, until now. Who knows when we will see Toney and Golladay back in action, but Pettis looks like a hold until the usage on this team gets sorted out.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

We could all see this one coming from a mile away, but Goedert’s usage and opportunity was elite with Zach Ertz out of town. On the season, Goedert’s snap rate sits at 64%. On Sunday? It was an astounding 92.8%. He matched his season high with five targets, and ranked third in air yards (99) and fifth in receiving yards (70) among all tight ends.

Goedert – on the season – ranks third at the position in yards per reception, second in yards per target, and fifth in yards per route run. If we truly see his snaps jump up by 50% from what they were in Weeks 1-6, there are very few tight ends I would want over him.

This is, of course, the kind of usage fantasy managers were hoping for when rumors of Ertz being traded first materialized in the offseason. Goedert now clearly has the role on his own, and is only 26 years old. He and Jalen Hurts seem to have a rapport already, so we are looking at a likely top-five tight end for the rest of the season and it’s not too far a stretch to think that will be a consistent spot for him in the next two or three years.

Stock Down

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Jamaal Williams, RB, Detroit Lions

After peaking at 49% of snaps in Week 3, Williams has seen his time on the field slowly trickle down to where he lined up in the backfield on a season-low 29% of snaps on Sunday. This coincides with how well D’Andre Swift has been playing and he has seen his snap share hover over 75% for three straight weeks.

To make things worse, Williams has become an absolute zero in the passing game. Swift had 10 targets on Sunday while Williams had none. This means that in any passing situation or two-minute type drill, we can’t count on Williams to get any of those high-value targets. Considering the game scripts in which the Lions often find themselves, that limits the opportunity Williams can acquire.

You have to give Dan Campbell and the Lions’ staff credit. They experimented with the split-back system and apparently now realize that Swift is the superior rusher and pass-catcher. When Williams left Green Bay, we wanted to see what would happen when give more opportunity. Unfortunately, he went to a team with perhaps a running back just as dynamic as the one he left. Williams is another player who is 26 years old on this list, but 26 for a running back is a lot different than a tight end. Williams looks to need a major injury from Swift to get any substantial playing time and start moving the stock up in dyasty formats.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Once Dante Pettis was evicted from the dog house, it looks like Shanahan packed up Brandon Aiyuk’s clothes, his bedding, and all his belongings and made him the new resident. After a breakout year in 2020, it’s baffling to see how little usage Aiyuk is seeing in 2021. Especially since he is on the field so much. Aiyuk was out there for 40 of the 49ers 56 offensive snaps on Sunday, but the mysterious thing about that is he ran only 20 routes. That means on 20 snaps, Aiyuk was a blocker, an help in pass protection, or just an observer.

In the 20 routes he did run Sunday? Just two targets. Aiyuk’s weekly targets look like the run totals from the Red Sox last four playoff games (0, 2, 3, 4, 2…). He has not had a week this year with greater than a 15% targets share and has three weeks with less than 10%. After seven total touchdowns in just 11 games last season, Aiyuk is stuck at just one in 2021.

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With the running backs on constant round trips to the infirmary and George Kittle on IR, there can be no explanation to this lack of usage besides the fact that there is something Aiyuk is doing or not doing that has removed him from the head coach’s good graces. It’s disappointing to see a player just 23 years old with so much talent get sidelined like this, but he is nothing better than a dynasty bench stash until something changes.


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About Ryan Kirksey

Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. In my week I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long content, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. Astros apologist. Team Terry #McSoarin

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