Dynasty Fantasy Football

2021 Dynasty Football WR Buy and Sell

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The NFL continues to shift more and more towards pass-happy offenses. This has made a lot more wide receivers’ fantasy viable. The overflow has made receiver rankings the most difficult. There are just so many names and the differences between some of these guys are marginal. No matter, we’re going to be taking a peek at some of the best 2021 dynasty football WR to buy and sell.

Because of the supply of quality receivers, the demand is beginning to go down. Not so much for the truly elite guys, but it is for the guys in that 12-22 and beyond range. This is especially true in leagues that haven’t yet added a third or even fourth starting receiver. Let me tell you what I mean.

Last year, the 20th best wide receiver was Terry McLaurin with 12 PPG. Sterling Shepard was the 36th best wide receiver at 10.8 PPG. That’s a difference of just 1.2 points per game. For running backs the 20th best running back was Ronald Jones with 12.3 PPG. Leonard Fournette was the 36th best running back at 8.8 PPG.  The difference here is 3.5 PPG. That’s almost three times higher than the difference in wide receivers at the same finishing spots.

What does this tell us? How do we use this to our advantage? The passing game in the NFL has flooded the market with solid starting wide receivers. Don’t be afraid to sell a quality WR2 if it means an upgrade to your lineup elsewhere, especially if it means getting a WR3 back in return. The difference is minimal. Let your opponent have the shinier name while you collect additional assets and get roughly the same production back in return.

Because of the sheer number of receivers we have to decipher nowadays, we’re going to be taking a gander at a few extra dynasty wide receivers we should be looking to buy or sell before the start of the season.

If you haven’t had a chance to read the previous installments of my Dynasty Buy and Sell Quarterback/Tight End and Running Back series, be sure to do so!

Wide Receiver Buys

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Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

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Deebo Samuel is a forgotten man down in the Bay, but I will take him all day. Okay, I’m sorry… that was even too much for me and I like that corny stuff. Regardless, Deebo Samuel is absolutely a dynasty wide receiver to buy. Everyone is chirping about Brandon Aiyuk, whom I like as a player. I want the community to continue pushing his name because it only drops the value on Deebo Samuel.

He’s been pushed down to the third target in San Francisco after Aiyuk and George Kittle, which feels like an accurate landing spot within that receiving core. I agree with that, but he’s dropping far too low. Especially because we don’t even really know how all three of these guys are going to play together. Do I expect Samuel to leapfrog Aiyuk? I do not. Is it possible? Sure, it is. And I fully expect there to be games where Samuel is the primary second weapon behind Kittle some weeks.

Aiyuk’s rookie season was special, but people are forgetting Deebo put up a quality rookie season in his own right. He had 81 targets as a rookie and turned those into 57 catches for 802 yards and 3 touchdowns. Samuel also had 14 carries for 159 yards and three scores. Unlike in Aiyuk’s rookie season, George Kittle was healthy the entire season. And where Aiyuk was the primary option for almost all of his games, the 49ers acquired Emmanuel Sanders at the deadline in Samuel’s rookie year.

When I look at some dynasty rankings and I see Deebo’s name down there as a backend WR3 or WR4, I’m buying all day. First off, I trust Kyle Shanahan a ton. This dude knows how to run an NFL offense. The second reason I’m buying is Trey Lance. I get it, we haven’t seen him play. But Shanahan just traded three first rounders and a third to get him when he had a competent  Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. I mean, that’s a statement, right?

There are no pass catchers behind these three, so we can expect the majority of the targets to funnel through these guys. So let’s play a numbers game. The 49ers threw the ball 570 last year and 478 the year before. I don’t expect them to throw it as much as they did last year, but 525 seems like a reasonable number. Right in the middle.

George Kittle’s highest number of targets in his career is 135. If we give him that, we still have 400 to divvy out. Aiyuk averaged eight targets a game as a rookie. This amounts to a 128 target share number across 16 games. Most of those games were without Samuel and Kittle, undoubtedly helping him. Even if we give Aiyuk 130 targets (a number I’m skeptical he even gets to), it still leaves us with 270 unaccounted targets. That’s more than enough for Deebo to have 120-125 targets and still leave 150 targets left over for running backs and back-up players.

When we look at Deebo’s career numbers we find he has a 72 percent catch rate. If we give Deebo 122 targets at a 70 percent catch rate, he’s going to end up with roughly 85 receptions. Last year he averaged 11.8 yards per catch despite being at 14.1 as a rookie. I expect him to be closer to that 11.8 average with Aiyuk and Kittle working as the deep ball threats. Deebo will be the short and intermediate target. Working with these numbers we’re looking at an 85 catch, 975 yard, five touchdown type of season from Deebo.

Shanahan always uses his receivers in the running game. Even in just seven games last year, Deebo racked up eight carries. And don’t forget what he did as a rookie on the ground when he was fully healthy. If he averages one carry per game he’s likely going to add another 100 scrimmage yards and maybe another score to that final stat line.

What’s that type of season look like in Half-PPR settings? About 175 total points, smack dab in the middle of Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel last year. That’s good enough for a WR25 finish. He’s a dynasty buy, and the price is nice and low. So the question you need to ask yourself is this: do you want to buy a 25-year-old wide receiver who plays for one of the best offensive minds in football and whose team just spent a ton of draft capital acquiring whom they believe to be a true franchise quarterback? I sure do too.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas had a miserable 2020. Nothing went right. He got hurt, then suspended. At one point, he might’ve been on the chopping block. Drew Brees got hurt. It was one thing after the next. Now, Drew Brees is retired. Michael Thomas’s value has likely never been lower. That’s good. That makes him an easy buy.

Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders left in free agency. Those two guys alone accounted for 142 targets. Together they had 98 catches for 1,230 yards and 12 touchdowns. The New Orleans Saints added no pass catchers in free agency. They didn’t use any significant draft picks on pass-catchers in the draft. Those two players are going to be replaced by Tre’Quan Smith and Adam Trautman.

Tre’Quan Smith’s best season out of his three in the league is 50 targets, 34 receptions, 448 yards, and four touchdowns. Adam Trautman is a second-year guy who racked up just 16 targets as a rookie.

This is why I’m buying Michael Thomas. Even the biggest Smith and Trautman truther will have a hard time believing they rack up the numbers Sanders and Cook did in 2020.

If anyone is worried about Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, let them be. I am not and you shouldn’t be either. Don’t get me wrong, I prefer Winston’s gunslinger mentality, but I don’t care either way. Michael Thomas is going to be looking at an elite target share. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he’s top-3 in targets as long as he stays healthy.

Taysom Hill is the doomsday scenario for everyone as it relates to the Saints’ offense. It’s not for Thomas. There is no doomsday scenario for Michael Thomas if he’s healthy. In four games with Hill at quarterback last year Thomas received 37 targets, caught 30 of them, and had 343 yards. Across 16 games that amounts to a 148 target pace, 120 catches, and 1,372 yards. When Teddy Bridgewater started five games in 2019, Thomas still finished as “the” WR1. Those are elite numbers.

He’s 28 years old so he’s not exactly young anymore, but receivers can play at high levels much later than some other positions. Even if they add a rookie in the draft next season, Thomas is looking at elite targets shares this year and next. In Thomas’s case, I’m chasing that volume. For those reasons, he’s one of the dynasty wide receivers I’m looking to buy this off-season.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

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Give me all the Terry McLaurin shares you can get. This guy is an absolute stud. He isn’t going to come cheap, and the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick might have actually inflated his price, but I’m still willing to pay up to get this guy on my team.

Catching passes from Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum as a rookie, he cruised to a 58/919/7 season. As a sophomore, he took a huge step posting 87 catches, 1,118 yards, and four touchdowns. And what’s crazy here? There’s a level above his sophomore season yet. He hasn’t had one season where he played with even average quarterback play. Both seasons Washington’s offense has been below average. There’s an untapped level of play we haven’t gotten to see from Terry yet and that’s scary. Get it? Terry, scary? Scary Terry. You got it. But seriously, you’re going to want this guy on your team when that happens.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to make all those old Washington problems disappear. Is he a great starter? He is not, but he’s a heck of a lot better than what McLaurin’s had. And for fantasy purposes, he’s pretty good. Fitzmagic also knows where to go with the football. In his eight seasons with at least 10+ starts, his team’s No. 1 wide receiver has averaged 142 targets! McLaurin had 134 targets last year from Kyle Allen, Dwayne Haskins, and Alex Smith, but can you imagine 142 from Ryan Fitzpatrick? Sign me up.

I get the concerns as it relates to dynasty and his long-term appeal because Fitzpatrick isn’t the long-term option. But I think it’s fair to expect him to be the starter for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. And if you remember from my first article, I’m working on a 1-3 year window here. I respect Ron Rivera as a football coach a whole heck of a lot. He gives me some Mike Tomlin vibes. He’s not quite on that level, but he knows what he’s doing and he gets the most out of his teams.

I fully trust Rivera and company to find their long-term quarterback. That feels incredibly odd to write about the Washington Football Team and yet it’s true. And the best part is they don’t need to do it immediately. Fitzpatrick gives them a quality starter in the meantime.

If there’s anyone in your league who doesn’t view him as a lock and loaded WR1 or is a little scared of how Curtis Samuel affects McLaurin’s target share, go and get this man.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

Full disclosure, Michael Pittman was one of my favorite wide receiver prospects coming out of the 2020 Draft. He reminded me of a young Michael Thomas. He’s a big-bodied receiver who runs excellent routes and drops absolutely nothing. We didn’t get to see that enough as a rookie because he was hurt. But it’s still there.

The Colts re-signed TY Hilton in the off-season. Zach Pascal is still there and Paris Campbell, but there’s an avenue here where Pittman is looking at an elite target share. The organization has a lot of faith in him since they didn’t make a significant addition to their pass catchers. He’s young and can easily develop into that alpha receiver.

There’s some risk involved in acquiring Pittman because of Carson Wentz. He was disastrous last year and if he plays like that again, Pittman will struggle to overcome that level of bad quarterback play. But Wentz has played like an MVP before and for the most of his career, he’s been a quality starter.

Wentz tends to lock onto his bigger targets. This has been true with Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. They’ve all become his favorites, and Pittman gives Wentz the closest comparison to those types of receivers. Pittman is 6’4 and 225 lbs. If Wentz struggles with his accuracy, Pittman has the tools to win contested passes.

If Frank Reich can unlock that old MVP season from Carson Wentz and Michael Pittman lives up to his 2020 draft pedigree, we could be talking about a guy who is being treated as a WR3/4 becoming a high-end WR2.

The potential for an elite target share is there for Pittman in Indianapolis. They already have a great offensive line and a great running back. If Wentz can get back to his old self and Pittman becomes the undisputed No. 1 receiver, he’s going to be an absolute home run. With Hilton’s age and already declining skills, there’s no reason Pittman isn’t already considered the front-runner to be Wentz’s favorite target. All that’s left is well, Carson Wentz.

It’s not a gamble I feel totally comfortable with, but the upside is impossible to ignore. If I’m a rebuilding team, this is one of the young guys I’m looking to get onto my roster. He hits on all the criteria. He’s young, talented and has sky-high potential.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

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Cooper Kupp is generally viewed as the No. 2 receiver behind Robert Woods and for the most part, the statistics support that claim. But Robert Woods is 29 years old and if I was a betting man, I’d bet this is Woods’ last year in LA.

After the 2021 season, the Rams can designate Woods as a post-June 1st cut (or trade) and save $13.50 million. That’s not chump change folks. And after the season Woods will be 30 years old. As their roster currently stands the Rams have just about $204 million committed to players for the 2022 season. The salary cap for 2021 is $182.50 million. Even if that number jumps by $10 million, they’re over it by $12 million. Without in-season spending, draft pick signings, etc.

Cooper Kupp is coming off a disappointing 2020 season. He finished as the WR27. In 2019 he was WR4. And in 2018 he averaged 14.4 PPG, which was tied for 11th best. The Matthew Stafford trade certainly raises the values of Rams’ players across the board, but if you’re able to use his 2020 season to lower the cost of acquisition, it’s a good idea to do so.

Robert Woods finished as the WR13 last year and yet on per-game basis, Kupp out-targeted him. The biggest reason Woods out-produced Kupp was touchdowns. Woods scored eight total touchdowns. Kupp scored three. Last year Kupp had 10 touchdowns. The year prior, when he only played in eight games, he had six. I expect Kupp to have much better touchdown luck in 2021, especially with Stafford at the helm.

I’m treating Kupp as a solid WR2 for 2021, but the upside in 2022 and beyond is where I really get excited about him. If Woods is cut or traded following the 2021 season, Kupp is going to vault into a huge role in the Rams’ offense. I’m willing to gamble on that upside. Either way though, the Rams offense as a whole is worth buying into.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys

Buying Michael Gallup is all about the future. This year, everyone is treating him as the No. 3 wide receiver in Dallas behind Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. That’s most certainly the correct thing to do. But what about next season? Michael Gallup will be a free agent. With Dak Prescott‘s new deal, Amari making elite money, and Elliott’s deal it’s hard to see how Dallas could afford to pay Michael Gallup.

This means he’s going to become a free agent. I don’t generally like betting on an unknown because he could end up with the Texans. In this case, I’m willing to roll the dice. The wide receiver free agents for 2022 include Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, Will Fuller, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Those are the big names. I’m expecting the Buccaneers, Bears, and Packers to resign their respective guys. This leaves Gallup fighting for top-dog status against Fuller and Smith-Schuster. That’s a fight he and should win.

It should also be mentioned that after the 2021 season, the Cowboys can cut or trade Amari Cooper and save $16 million while only taking on a $6 million dead cap hit. It’s possible the Cowboys let Amari Cooper go or trade him and commit to Gallup long-term. It can’t be completely ruled out even if it is unlikely.

In either case, we can reasonably assume Gallup is going to be some team’s No.1 or No.2 receiver next season and that means more targets than he’s going to get in Dallas this year as the No. 3. And more targets mean more upside.

The price tag on Gallup is not going to be as high as some of the other guys on this list, but what if he ends up in Green Bay? What if it’s Kansas City? Or with the Chargers? How about the Saints? Maybe he becomes the alpha for Detroit. All of these teams could potentially upgrade their No. 2 receiver spot and all of them would vault Gallup into solid WR2 territory.

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Wide Receiver Sells

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

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This might be your last chance to sell Adam Thielen, so I would advise doing that as soon as possible. Fantasy wise, Adam Thielen was great in 2020. He finished as the WR8 in 0.5 PPR leagues. A closer look at the numbers shows an extremely cautionary outlook.

Last year Thielen scored 14 touchdowns, a career season, on 108 targets. His previous career high? Nine touchdowns, on 153 targets, in 2018. In 2017 he had four touchdowns, on 142 targets.

If we look at his 2016-2019 seasons, eliminating his first two in the league because he didn’t play, we find Thielen had a 5.5 percent touchdown rate. Last year he had a 13 percent touchdown rate. 39 percent of his total fantasy points last year come from touchdowns. What happens if that 13 percent touchdown rate falls to 8 percent? Or worse, his career average?

The other thing to be concerned about with Thielen is his target share. He struggled with injuries in 2019, but he managed to play 10 games. In those 10 games, he accumulated 48 targets, a 4.8 target per game average. In 2020 that number rose a bit back up to seven targets. But he’ll be 31 years old when the 2021 season and Justin Jefferson will have one more year of experience.

His days as the No. 1 option in Minnesota are gone. There’s a very real possibility Thielen does not even finish the 2021 season as a WR2. I’m letting every league I’m in know that he’s available, and I’m taking the best offer that comes along.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

The dynasty community seems to be torn on what to do with Tee Higgins now that Ja’Mar Chase is a Bengal. I’m selling. You could make the argument I’m being much too rash given Higgins’ rookie season. I’ll admit that I’m not completely sold on selling Higgins, but I think it’s the right call.

There have only been five instances in the history of the NFL where a team has had three 1,000 yard receivers. The last one was in 2008. There have only been 11 instances where a team has had three 900 yard receivers. History tells us someone is going to get lost in the shuffle.

I think there’s a good chance that player is going to be Higgins. Higgins and Chase are primarily outside receivers. Tyler Boyd is their slot guy. This tells me that Boyd is safe. He has an established role, and he’s going to continue being that guy Joe Burrow looks for on those short and intermediate routes. Higgins, at the end of the year, became the alpha receiver in Cincinnati. He was their No. 1. Tyler Boyd was the No. 2 and AJ Green picked up the rest.

What if Ja’Mar Chase takes that alpha role? That’s what I expect to happen. Maybe not right away, but it’s going to happen because Chase is a generational type of talent. If Chase becomes the No. 1 in Cincinnati, I don’t think Higgins falls to No. 2. I think he’s going to No. 3.

I look at the Dallas receivers last year. Mike McCarthy and Zac Taylor, the respective coaches for the Cowboys and Bengals run a ton of 11 personnel with three wide receivers on the field. Michael Gallup got lost. Amari Cooper was the alpha and CeeDee Lamb had a consistent role as the slot receiver. Gallup was the primary deep ball threat. This led to some big plays, but also some big clunkers. I expect Tee Higgins to play the role of Michael Gallup in Cincinnati.

If there’s someone in your league treating Higgins as a lock and loaded WR2, essentially writing off Tyler Boyd to some extent, I’m looking to sell Tee Higgins.

Will Fuller, Miami Dolphins

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I’m selling this guy as fast as possible after his big 2020 season. I’m looking for someone who buys into that season and the hype surrounding the Miami Dolphins franchise.

Will Fuller is 27 years old. He has never played 16 games. Ever. In fact, he’s only played in 55% of them. I’m not a big fan of the “injury-prone” tag, but for Will Fuller, I’m okay with it. He cannot stay on the field. I get it, his absence last year wasn’t because of injury. It was because he got suspended. But isn’t that worse? Getting hurt is out of your control. Getting suspended? Now that’s something he could have avoided.

He’s going to be playing for a new team in 2021 and history is not kind to receivers in their first year with their new club. I know DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs smashed that narrative last season, but I’m not betting on Will Fuller to buck history. He’s not that good.

He’s never recorded 900 yards in a season. Before last season, he’s never had 50 catches in a season. Even if we look at his on-pace stats for his previous injury-riddled seasons, we find he’s only ever been on pace to break 1,000 yards twice out of five years. And he was only on pace to have more than 75 catches once.

He might be viewed as the best receiver in Miami, but how much better is he than DeVante Parker? Over the past two seasons, Will Fuller has averaged 9.8 targets per game, 4.6 catches, 70.6 yards and 0.5 touchdowns across 22 games. Over that same time, Parker has averaged 8.25 targets, 4.8 catches, 71.25 yards and 0.46 touchdowns per game across 28 games. Will Fuller’s quarterback was DeShaun Watson. DeVante Parker’s quarterbacks were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, and Tua Tagovailoa.

Last year when Fuller had his “break-out” season he was only competing with targets from Brandin Cooks. In Miami, he’ll be competing against Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. That’s a lot of competition for a guy who has never been a target hog.

There’s an argument for Will Fuller that he doesn’t need a lot of targets because of his ability to create big plays down the field, but will those big plays happen? Tua averaged 6.3 yards per attempt last year. There were only four quarterbacks who averaged less. Two of them are no longer starting. Tua was behind guys like Andy Dalton, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, and Drew Lock. I like Tua to take a step forward, but expecting him to be a good deep ball passer in 2021 is a little too optimistic for me.

For all of these reasons, Will Fuller is an easy dynasty wide receiver to sell.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

There is no better team in the NFL at drafting and developing wide receiver talent than the Pittsburgh Steelers. It just isn’t close. And the one thing that worries me is the role they’ve chosen for JuJu.

Despite an incredible sophomore season, JuJu has been nothing more than a glorified short-yardage, slot receiver in Pittsburgh the last two years. They’ve used him exclusively in that role. Even as a rookie, Diontae Johnson seemed to take over as the No. 1 passing option in Pittsburgh. And for a team that evaluates wide receiver talent so well, that’s concerning.

He’ll be another excellent PPR asset in 2021. He had almost 100 catches last year. And despite that, he only had 831 yards. He averaged a putrid 8.6 yards per catch. JuJu’s value is directly tied to him racking up short yardage catches. Will that continue in 2021? I believe it will, but there’s a chance it might not. Chase Claypool could take a big step forward and command a bigger slice of the pie.

After 2021? It’s a huge unknown. Despite only being 24 years old, he didn’t seem to have much interest while on the free-agent market. That’s also concerning to me. Smith-Schuster may very well be on a new team in 2022. Who knows what role he would play in a new team’s offense?

If he’s in a role unlike the one he’s in Pittsburgh he’s unlikely going to see the same number of targets and catches. There’s a possibility the targets he earns will have more value to them, but if that was truly a skillset he had in his game, why would Pittsburgh ignore that? The best team in the NFL at evaluating and developing wide receiver talent.

I’m not totally in love with selling JuJu because of his age and the productive seasons he already has under his belt, but I’m nonetheless entertaining the idea because of his unknown team next season and what kind of role he’ll be in.

Corey Davis, New York Jets

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In four seasons Corey Davis has only one season with more than 900 yards. He has zero 1,000 yard seasons. In his first two seasons, Davis was the No. 1 option for his offense with a young and exciting rookie quarterback behind center. Sound familiar?

Corey Davis was in a prime smash spot in 2020. The Titans had an explosive running game, he had a dominant guy on the opposite side of the field drawing attention and he had excellent quarterback play. He put up a very respectable stat line of 65 catches, 984 yards, and five touchdowns.

He’s now a New York Jet. There seems to be some excitement around Corey Davis in that he’s maybe finally turned the corner. After all, he’s going to be the No. 1 option with a young and exciting rookie quarterback behind center… whoa. Deja Vu. But I’m not buying it. If I can cash in the Corey Davis chip on the promise of a better New York Jets team and Zach Wilson, I’m doing it.

I’m not sold on Davis being the main man in New York anyways. He’s never been the alpha type and he’ll be competing with Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, and Jamison Crowder. The ball is going to be spread around in New York and we’re likely to see some rookie struggles at quarterback. If I can get WR3 value for Corey Davis, he’s an easy dynasty wide receiver to sell.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

This one breaks my heart a bit because I’m a huge Aiyuk fan. I think he’s a phenomenal football player, but I’m entertaining offers on him all the same. He’s not a must-sell, but I’ve seen Aiyuk treated as a top-15 and sometimes, even top-10 dynasty wide receiver and that’s too high.

Aiyuk had an amazing rookie season. He had 825 total scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns across 12 games. An ankle injury and a Covid diagnosis kept him off the field for a few games. He averaged 12.9 PPG last season. This was a better average than Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, and Robert Woods. He was just one point per game behind Keenan Allen.

George Kittle and Deebo Samuel missed the vast majority of last season. Their absence aided Aiyuk’s fantasy numbers. He was the only option in the passing game. That won’t be the case in 2021. Or 2022. Deebo and Kittle are each signed in San Francisco for the next two years at least.

I love Aiyuk’s talent, but if someone is going to treat him as a top-15 dynasty or top-10 dynasty receiver, I’m going to sell. It’s not fun trading an up-and-coming young asset like Aiyuk, but every player is tradeable. The question is but the price. Because of his rookie season and concerns around Deebo’s injury history, we’re seeing Aiyuk’s value vault higher than it should be.

Kyle Shanahan still wants to be a run-first ball club. They still have George Kittle who is truly one of the most unstoppable weapons in the passing game. And Deebo Samuel isn’t just going to go away. In my mind, Aiyuk is a backend WR2, but there are concerns regarding his volume. I expect the other quality pass catchers around him and Shanahan’s desire to be a run-first ball club limit his ability to reach his true ceiling, which is where he is currently believed valued. Anytime you can sell an asset at their high point, it’s something you need to at least consider.

Be Cautious – Yield

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

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First off, this has nothing to do with the trade rumors. I don’t believe they’d sell Julio Jones whatsoever. It makes no sense. You cannot pass on Justin Fields and Mac Jones at fourth overall to then go and trade your best offensive player.

He often gets tagged with the injury-prone tag, but it’s an unfair representation. From 2014-2019, Julio has missed four total games. That’s it. Four games in six seasons. I know, he’s been a decoy for a few of them and he’s banged up a lot. But the man plays. And he is incredibly dominant. His per-year averages are insane. Who cares if he’s a decoy for a handful of games when you’re getting the return value Julio provides.

He’s averaged 104 catches from 2014-2019. He’s turned those 104 catches into a yearly average of 1,565 yards and six touchdowns. Those are just monster numbers. Even last year, in nine games he was on pace for 91 catches, 1,370 yards, and five touchdowns.

He’s 32 years old and the fact there are some trade rumors means he might not be in Atlanta long-term. Just to repeat though, I fully expect him to be a Falcon in 2021. If I’m in a rebuild, I’m looking to move him. If I’m competing though or even if I think I have a chance, he’s probably one of those guys I’m going down with the ship on. He’s that good.

His age and his injury-plagued 2020 season likely place his value much too low to trade a guy that’s been averaging 245 fantasy points per season from 2014-2019. If there’s a rebuilding team with Julio wasting away, I’m making a competitive offer and reaping the benefits. There’s nothing to suggest that Julio isn’t going to dominate again in 2021.

If any of these sells seem a little out of place, or maybe you’re not completely buying in, be sure to check out Adam Koffler’s article on FantasyPros.com entitled Wide Receivers to Avoid (2021 Fantasy Football).

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packer Packers

Davante Adams is the best fantasy wide receiver in the game. It isn’t close. If Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, no one can touch him. Adams is virtually untradeable with Rodgers under center. At the moment, it’s looking somewhat questionable. 2022 is an even bigger question mark. For the record though, I fully expect Rodgers to be a Packer in 2021.

I’m not trading Adams for anything less than a monster return. He was unstoppable in 2020. He scored 18 touchdowns in 14 games. There’s nothing to suggest that won’t continue in 2021. He averaged 11 targets per game, which amounts to a 177 target pace. That 17th game means Davante Adams could flirt with a 200 target season. Just stupid volume. And it’s all coming from the No. 1 offense in the NFL. With the reigning MVP throwing to him.

None of those numbers even look that out of place. Before 2019 where he missed four games, Adams had double-digit touchdowns in four straight seasons. Injuries have held him back a bit. However, if he’s healthy, he is going to dominate.

He’s 28 years old though. And his quarterback, he’s 37. Davante Adams also isn’t under contract with the Packers. And there are trade rumors surrounding his MVP quarterback. I wouldn’t propose selling Adams unless you’re getting an amazing package in return, but there are plenty of unknowns surrounding his future where you need to listen to offers. But I’m not trading him without getting a significant return. He’s one of the few championship-winning players in the league.



I hope you’ve enjoyed my Dynasty Football Buy and Sell Series. Be sure to follow me @RobFFAddict. Good luck in your upcoming 2021 fantasy football season!


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