Well, here we are. It is the last weekend before Opening Day, and draft season is coming to a close. Most home league drafts are this weekend, so let's revisit the 2021 Fantasy Baseball ADP movers, late March style.
Knowing where the helium and deflation generally are will give you a leg up on your competition this week. So let's take down some championships with some ADP risers and fallers.
2021 Fantasy Baseball Late March ADP Movers
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Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets (ADP 20, -3)
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Figured I would zig while you zag and start with the fallers first! I'm not going to focus on players that are injured, or not making the team. We won't look at anyone who is an obvious cross-off. Here let us seek out some values and find the mistakes that our league mates are making. Their mistake is our advantage. We can also identify a few players that are poised to disappoint.
This is not a huge drop and there is nothing to be concerned with on Lindor. But it is worth noting that he is overall sliding into the middle/back of the second round. Lindor figures to be a perfect fit in New York and is poised to land a record-breaking contract. He brings every category to the table. Lindor figures to be a cheat code as the first offensive player for a team who took Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole in the first round.
Even better, in Razzslam which is a 12 team best ball league, I was able to pair Lindor with Mike Trout drafting from the fifth spot. Aaron Nola then fell to me in the third. Lindor is scorching hot, in mid-season form, so far this spring with a 1.06 OPS and is shaping into a tremendous value as a second-round player likely to return first-round results.
Jared Walsh, 1B, Los Angeles Angels (ADP 238-28)
Walsh really showed up in 2020, batting .293 with 9 home runs in 99 at bats. He took over the primary 1B over legend Albert Pujols and figures to retain it on a semi-full time basis this year. Walsh has the better side of the platoon as a left-handed hitter and is far superior to defensively at this point to Pujols. Shohei Otani figures to DH 3-4 times per week, leaving Pujols to fill the gap on the other days. This opens the 27-year-old Walsh to probably five starts per week, with ABs as a defensive replacement in several others. Walsh can also earn playing time filling in in the outfield.
Despite his sophomore tenure, Walsh is an experienced hitter with over 450 games played at the minor league level. In his six professional seasons, Walsh has never had a campaign with an average under .275, which is the exact benchmark I look for in a player poised to break out. He is off to a slow start this spring, having struck out 12 times in 37 AB, which could be the reason for the ADP slide thus far. This is an easy buying opportunity for a cornerman that will far outperform the price. One of my top adds among Fantasy Baseball ADP movers this season.
Scott Kingery, 2B/SS/OF, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 489 -132)
This one is gonna leave a mark. I was on the Kingery bandwagon since Lehigh Valley. The hit tool looked to be a 70 and my phone was going crazy with notifications every time he hit a home run, seemingly every other day. The comparisons to Michael Young were easy, and the Phillies agreed, buying out his arbitration years before making his major league debut.
Now, both I and the Phillies stand here with the old Al Bundy look on our faces. His first 1000 at-bats have brought us to a .233 average and OBP under .300. What good is 91 percentile sprint speed if you cannot get on first base?
The book is not yet closed on Kingery as a major league regular, but in this, his 27-year-old season, he will not be supplanting Didi Gregorius or Jean Segura in the infield. His path to at-bats is through centerfield, which is murky as Odubell Herrera has resurfaced, former top pick Mickey Moniak has taken steps forward, Adam Haseley brings elite defense, and Roman Quinn brings an exciting offensive spark when in the lineup.
Kingery is going to have to hit a ton this year to find regular at-bats, and his path may only be through a last-ditch adoption of the universal DH this week. He is ticketed for a utility role, and perhaps is one of the most disappointing Fantasy Baseball ADP movers this year.
Amed Rosario, OF, Cleveland Indians (ADP 525, -177)
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None have fallen harder than Rosario. The Indians brought back Cesar Hernandez to sure up second base, and Andres Gimenez appears ready for stardom. He looked to be ticketed for a bench role, as he defensively has been abysmal in his outfield audition this spring.
Then suddenly the skies opened for him. Inexplicably, both Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer were removed from the active roster, and the centerfield job appears to be his. His ADP has fallen so much to the point of not being drafted in deep 15 team leagues.
Rosario offers about 10-15 home runs with 15 stolen base potential. He has hit well this spring to a .333 clip. I'm not running to the podium to put this pick in, but stolen bases are hard to find and Rosario shouldn't drain your average. you can burn a late bench spot on him and pray.
Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP 344, -53)
He was secretly effective last year during the abbreviated season, pitching to a 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Kim does not offer much in the area of strikeouts, so he goes relatively unnoticed in most drafts.
He will be slow to start the season this year, as a back strain has kept him sidelined early. He is scheduled to pitch 2-3 innings this week.
Considering the park effect, team context, and division, Kim figures to repeat with solid ratios while adding a good amount of wins. If your league offers an IL spot, he is a great bench round stash and reserve. There will be significant streamer value here this summer. He is the sneakiest Fantasy Baseball ADP mover on my list this year.
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/SS, San Diego Padres (ADP 367, -145)
Kim was getting a lot of buzz early in draft season as the shiny new toy coming over from the KBO. Kim brings light power with some speed over from Korea, signing a four-year deal with the Padres. Now, drafters appear to have buyers' remorse.
Kim has had a horrid spring thus far, batting .135 with no extra-base hits. The Padres are playing him all over the diamond, including the outfield. The 25-year-old Kim was exclusively a shortstop in Korea, but was expected to move to the keystone for San Diego as their starting 2B. This waves a red flag that possibly the Padres don't feel this Fantasy Baseball ADP mover's bat plays enough for the position. Sophomore Jake Cronenworth or recently resigned Jurickson Profar may be in line for a more regular role, hence the experiment with Kim in a utility role.
The KBO is an exciting league, but its hitters tend to struggle stateside. Their most heralded slugger Byung-ho Park came to the majors with huge fanfare, only to hit 12 career home runs and eventually return back to Korea. Early indications look as though Kim's .300 career AVG may not translate just the same. You should just leave him on the waiver wire at this point.
Mitch Keller, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP 452, -123)
If he is on your team, you've got the wrong Keller. There is no reason to draft young prospects on terrible teams in redraft.
The Pirates will be pressing to get to 60 wins this year, and will trot Keller out there every five days. His win probability is around five, and the team will have no reason to take him out of tough spots. He showed well last year, posting a 2.91 ERA through 21 MLB innings, but you cannot and shouldn't expect that to repeat.
Keller will be left on the hill in the hot sun to "pitch through it" and learn the major league game with no pressure for results. I would invest in a dynasty league, but not in a situation where he is in your lineup and every stat counts. Young prospects on bad teams will destroy your ratios. Just say no to Casey Mize, while you are at it.
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals (ADP 150, +64)
Robles is quickly becoming one of the more exciting players among Fantasy Baseball ADP movers this year. He is taking walks, stealing bases, and showing power. He struggled earlier this month with some back stiffness but has returned and is raking.
Robles is a candidate to lead off this year. The pitcher will be forced to bat again this year. It makes sense to move Turner out of the leadoff spot and into more of an RBI role. If this scenario does in fact materialize, Robles is poised to see a steady diet of fastballs in front of Juan Soto.
If Robles can take the walk, as he has this spring, he could sustain an OBP of .350 or greater. At the top of the Nationals order, this could translate to 85-100 runs scored. As we mentioned before, stolen bases have become hard to come by, but not for Robles.
In the tenth round of a 15 team draft, you will be hard-pressed to find another player with 15 home run and 25 stolen base potential. Combine that with a potentially elite run-scoring opportunity and you are sitting on fantasy gold for this post-hype sleeper.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox (ADP 214, +57)
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I drafted Vaughn in the 30th round of an NFBC draft a few weeks ago. That discount is long gone. Vaughn has made the team and brings his potentially elite power tool to the White Sox everyday lineup as their primary DH. With 600 at bats, 30+ home runs are not out of the question.
Now with word that Eloy Jimenez will miss significant time, possibly the season, the White Sox are trying out Vaughn in left field. Vaughn has dual position eligibility and an elite power tool in a stacked lineup. We could be looking at a potential top 100 fantasy player and Rookie of the Year Candidate. Vaughn's body type and swing look eerily similar to a young Mike Trout. While he isn't the athlete Trout is, you can see the swing developing into a potential .280+ hitter.
The buying window for your dynasty leagues has closed. But there is nothing but profit drafting him in the mid to late rounds for redraft. There is a very safe floor here.
Bobby Dalbec, 1B, Boston Red Sox (ADP 247, +40)
I qualify all hitters I consider with a minimum .270 batting average floor, which Dalbec cannot even sniff. Possibly the best pure power among top 100 prospects, Dalbec has drawn comparisons to young sluggers such as Joey Gallo. Dalbec has been one of the hottest hitters in the game this spring. His seven home runs lead the league. The .310 AVG will be an aberration, but Dalbec does provide enough on-base skills to stick at the Major League level.
Dalbec figures to be the everyday 1B for the Red Sox, but has the skillset to play at multiple spots crossed the diamond. The position flexibility ticks him up a few spots for me, but I'm probably still staying away more than I'm drafting him based on the batting average floor (or basement).
Myles Straw, OF, Houston Astros (ADP 370, +104)
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This one lost a little bit of steam this week. Manager Dusty Baker has said that it will be Jose Altuve, not Straw, at the top of the order. It sounds like a broken record, but the stolen base market is simply weak this year. Fortunately, Baker is known for giving the green light. Meanwhile, Astros General Manager James Click recently said he would love to see Straw lead MLB in stolen bases.
Straw may not be much better than just good Mallex Smith, but that statement has me excited. The lineup is excellent top to bottom, which means RBI and runs by accident. Perhaps being at the bottom of the lineup will offer Straw more stolen base attempts. He won't have to worry about running out of an inning in front of the big sticks.
Straw won't be a replacement for George Springer. However, his departure definitely opened up an opportunity for us to fix 1-2 categories quite cheaply. He is certainly worth a stash and if we're anything close to what Click hopes for, you may have a league winner on your hands.
Ty France, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (ADP231, +84)
France is one of the more exciting Fantasy Baseball ADP movers this season. He brings a sneaky amount of power, with just enough batting average. France was expected to fill a utility role for the Mariners, having played several games last year at 1B, 2B, and 3B. But with the spring he has had, he figures to have locked up at least the regular DH role.
The .380 BABIP from last year figures to regress significantly, and the .399 AVG in 2019 is obvious fool's gold. But this could can flat out hit. 600 plus plate appearances are on the table for him, and he brings multi-position eligibility. With 2B being so thin this year, you can do much worse than targeting France in the latter rounds of your draft
Domingo German, SP, New York Yankees (ADP 226, +81)
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The only pitcher on my Fantasy Baseball ADP movers list on the rise, German has found himself locked into the fifth starter spot after Deivi Garcia was sent to the minors. German has been lights out this spring, having not given up a run while sporting a 13:1 k:bb ratio across nine innings.
After missing all of 2020 while serving a suspension, German looks to pick up where he left off in 2019. German will probably not get the ERA below 4.00, but his spring control gives hope that his 1.15 WHIP from 2019 is repeatable.
Pitching for the Yankees always brings a high probability for wins. German has also shown near a 10 k/9 ratio throughout his career. You can draft German in the late rounds, with the ROI having a chance to be as high as an SP3.
Jonathan India, 3B, Cincinnatti Reds (ADP 516, previously undrafted)
You simply cannot find more of a jump from Fantasy Baseball ADP movers than India this year. He was drafted in less than 0.1% of drafts leading up to March. Then, the Reds announced they would be realigning their infield defense and now he looks to be the starter at second base. This is significant as he was drafted as a 3B, so every major site lists him as such. In Fantasy Baseball, position flexibility is king.
India was the player in the 2015 amateur draft I was most excited about. However, he hasn't lived up to the pedigree of a #5 overall pick to this point. An All-American as a Florida Gator, India brought that speed/power combination we always long for. This spring we are finally getting to see it.
India has done just a little bit of everything. He has 2 home runs, and 2 stolen bases. India has shown good plate discipline and on-base skills. He figures to hit down in the Reds lineup, but that doesn't matter as he is being drafted in the late, late bench rounds. He makes for the perfect stash and pray candidate.
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