As I mentioned last week in my undervalued infielders, finding values is a key to success in Fantasy Baseball. But that is only one part. You must also steer clear of the overvalued players. That is why I'm back to give you my 2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Infielders.
Avoiding the players who bust is almost more important than finding values. If you draft someone who does not live up to their draft capital then you will be chasing stats to try to catch up. Surely you will find players later in your draft or off the waiver wire, but it is easier not to miss in your drafts and reap even more benefits from those players you hit on.
Values will change as Spring Training occurs on for sure. Most of these will be due to injury or winning/losing playing time battles. The rest of these will be fairly set even as I write this with baseball a month away.
2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Infielders
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Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
I get the allure that is Mondesi and other mostly speed types. I also do not see how they ever fit on my teams.
Players who have 50% of their value from one category are hard to roster in my opinion. Yes, I get the 60-plus steels is potentially league-winning. However, when you get almost negligible to negative value in the other four hitting categories, I can't draft him at this price.
If you do want to draft Mondesi then you will need to surround the rest of your team with a lot of power and some batting average as well.
Cavan Biggio, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have acquired two top of the lineup hitters who finished in the top 7 in MVP voting in the last full MLB season and Cavan Biggio is being drafted like it never happened pic.twitter.com/2XrnBZ1q41
— Rudy Gamble (@rudygamble) February 11, 2021
Biggio has a safe floor, so calling him overrated is tough. However, I don't think his ceiling is very high and unfortunately, that ceiling is what people are drafting him at this point.
Biggio is being drafted as a 20/20 type player and I'm not sure he gets to that mark this year. He gets on base at a fairly high rate thanks to his stellar walk-rate. That allows him to get the steals many are chasing with him.
However, now that he is projected to bat sixth in the lineup after the signing of George Springer, Biggio is likely to see a lot less counting stat opportunities, even steals. See Rudy Gamble's Tweet above for
His low hard-hit rate also keeps his power and batting average down as well. I peg Biggio as more of a 15/15 type player and that just is not worth his current ADP. I'd rather take players with a little less speed at his spot in the draft to get premium power, RBI and runs. I can get players like Biggio much later in the draft, even at the second base position.
Luke Voit, 1B, New York Yankees
I loved Voit last year, and his manly chest hair (I mean who wouldn't? See pic above) as I was able to draft him near the last round in most leagues. I watched and as he crushed 22 HR in just 234 at-bats.
No one is drafting him at his 60-plus HR pace, but he is still being drafted ahead of perennial 30-plus HR and/or 100-plus RBI hitters. Some of these names are Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez and Anthony Rizzo. it is close, but I personally would prefer any of these over Voit.
I get that the majority of these players are older so they are thought of as on the decline. However, I think it is forgotten that Voit is over 30 himself. I get it, I forget from time to time too since he got such a late start to his MLB career.
Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets
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Dom Smith is an intriguing player indeed. We finally saw the bat breakout like many expected. This came to the tune of 10 HR in just 199 plate-appearances and a .616 slugging percentage.
My concern does not lie with his bat, but playing time. He is already projected to be moved down the lineup to seventh from fourth where he spent most of last season. That move already causes him to lose at-bats.
Now add in the fact that MLB is not expected to bring back the DH for the National League, it gets worse for Smith. His defensive liabilities at both 1B and the OF will cause him to be subbed out late in games.
It is hard to trust players like this, despite a strong bat. Losing at-bats is losing at-bats.
Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox
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Moncada had himself quite the breakout 2019. His batting average jumped 80 points over his previous career-high to .315. His power came through to with 25 HR, thanks to a jump in his HR/FB rate.
Last season he came crashing back down to earth though. Moncada's reason for his struggles in 2020... Covid. I'm not going to completely throw that out the window, but his 2020 batted ball profile looks a lot closer to 2018 than it does 2019. That is a cause for concern to me.
In my opinion, he can hit 20 home runs and steal 10-plus bags fairly easily. It is the batting average that I have the most worry about. To me, he is nowhere near the .300 hitter he was in 2019, which was aided by a crazy .406 BABIP. I think he falls more in the .230-.240 range.
People seem to be drafting Moncada based more on his 2019 than his other seasons. I'm not doing that, especially for the batting average. Draft Moncada because he is on a good team and can rack up some decent counting stats, but don't expect a good BA.
Tommy Edman, 2B/3B/SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Edman was the darling of last year's draft season. I fell victim to it too. The position eligibility alone makes him very appealing.
If you look deeper into his stats and profile he is nothing more than an average player. His 2019 seems to be more of an outlier, especially in the power department where he had a slugging percentage of .500-plus in both AAA and after he was called up. Every other season, including 2020 he is in the mid-300's to low 400s.
The speed is fine as he should steal 12-plus bags a season, especially as he should be the table-setter for the Cards this season. I would have said 18-plus but the lack of steals last season concerns me a bit, especially since he was caught four times.
One other concern is the impending callup of Nolan Gorman. Gorman, with the signing of Nolan Arenado, is getting some reps at second base. Needless to say, this would be very bad for Edman.
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