2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Outfielders

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Welcome to the 2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Outfielders article!.

If you haven’t already, check out my Undervalued Outfielders piece.

Outfield is plenty deep, and the best fantasy rosters will have a strong outfield. For that reason, it is important that we make correct assessments of these outfielders.

These are some of the outfielders I recommend avoiding at their current ADP, as there are better values to be had in a deep position.

2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Outfielders

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Early Rounds

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (FantasyPros ADP – OF 15 Overall 51) 

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Over the last three seasons, Aaron Judge has shown that he cannot make it through a season injury-free. He will be turning 29 this season, and it seems unlikely that he will be more healthy at 29 than 26. In a shortened 60-game schedule he couldn’t manage to play half the games. The calf injuries he suffered in 2020 are concerning by themselves, even without considering the rest of his lengthy injury history. We have seen Josh Donaldson struggle through calf injuries since 2017. 

Judge’s talent is undeniable. It’s worth mentioning, however, that his hard hit percentage dropped 18% in 2020. A 92 MPH exit velocity was also a career-low. The nagging injuries could start to affect the performance when on the field for Judge. If he doesn’t perform at an elite level when healthy, there’s no chance he can return value at his current ADP of No.51. He can’t afford to be anything less than a superstar when healthy because we know we’re only going to get so many games from him. 

Judge has hit more than 27 home runs just one. While one can say he likely would’ve passed it last season (nine home runs in 28 games) it is bold to assume he would’ve played enough games to do so. Judge has easy 30 home run power, but the fact he has only hit 30 once demonstrates his inability to stay on the field.

If the price tag were lower, I could see taking a chance on Judge putting together a relatively healthy season. He is going much too high for me to invest at his ADP, especially when there are usually good power bats available 50 picks later.

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays (FantasyPros ADP – OF 17 Overall 59) 

Arozarena burst onto the scene in 2020, with 17 home runs in 43 games including the postseason. He also showed that he can hit for a good average, with a .281 average during the regular season and a .377 average in the playoffs. Arozarena also mixed in some speed with four stolen bases during the 23 regular-season games. He carried the Rays offence to the World Series the hype was bound to get out of control, and it has. 

The biggest concern with Arozarena was his inability to hit the breaking ball. He hit only .154 vs breaking balls compared to a .316 average vs fastballs. There simply wasn’t enough time for pitchers to adjust to Arozarena last season, that won’t be the case in 2021. It would have been especially monitored by his most common foes in the AL East, as they surely took note of Randy’s 43 game stretch of dominance. His average vs. off-speed pitches was .308, but he had only a .192 xBA so he seemed to have some luck in that area that is due for regression. With pitchers making adjustments, he is much more likely to be a .260 hitter than .280+. 

I believe Arozarena will be a good player for a while, and I’m not trying to suggest 2020 was just an aberration. The ADP is where I have a problem, as the 59th overall player is just too high. Yordan Alvarez has been avoided due to his “risk”, and is currently going 20 picks later than Arozarena. I believe that Arozarena carries more risk this season than Alvarez.

Middle Rounds

Michael Conforto, New York Mets (FantasyPros ADP OF 20 – Overall 72)

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Michael Conforto was great in 2020. He hit for a career-best .322 average and had a solid nine homers in 54 games to go with it. Seemingly everything came together for an age 27 breakout, which is in line with most player’s prime breakout year. 

What jumps out immediately when looking at Conforto’s 2020 numbers is his BABIP. His BABIP of .412 led Major League Baseball and is completely unsustainable. He has mainly been around a .290 BABIP in his career and I would expect that in 2021. Conforto is much more likely to be a .270 hitter than a .300+ hitter.

His power also decreased in 2020, as his exit velocity and hard-hit percentage both dropped around 10 percentile ranks. Conforto’s launch angle dropped from 16 degrees to 11, so he very well could be trading off power for average. If this trend continues and Conforto is more of a 25 home run player rather than the 33 we saw in 2019, he will be an extremely replaceable player. 

 


In a deep position like outfield, I recommend avoiding Conforto at his current ADP. With the decrease in power and regression coming to his batting average, there is little chance of returning value. 

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies (FantasyPros ADP – OF 23 Overall 78) 

Blackmon started off the 2020 season on fire, and some believed he could potentially hit .400 over the shortened season. It was surprising to see him struggle to end the season, but thanks to his hot start he still ended up with a .303 average. 

Now going into the 2021 season, people can be misled by looking at the .303 average. Guys who hit .300 are typically viewed as consistent producers, and Blackmon was anything but in 2020. He hit only .230 in September while striking out more and walking less than he did in August in 20 fewer plate appearances. 

Blackmon seemed to lose quite a bit of power as well. He hit only six home runs in 59 games which is nowhere near his usual 30+ home run pace. According to Statcast his hard-hit percentage dropped from 40% in 2019 to 29%. This eleven point drop brought him from the 57th percentile all the way down to the 11th percentile in all of baseball. Now that Blackmon no longer continues to run, losing his power is very bad for his fantasy value. 

The Bat X run by Derek Carty projects Blackmon for 21 home runs, six stolen bases, and a .282 average. That isn’t enough for me to spend a top 80 pick on a player, and I would much rather have players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Austin Meadows and Nick Castellanos all of whom are going 10-15 picks later.

Later Rounds

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (FantasyPros ADP OF 30 – Overall 110)

Much like his teammate Aaron Judge, Stanton’s biggest concern is staying on the field. Stanton has played in 41 games over the last two seasons, mostly all because of muscle strains all over his body (biceps, hamstring, calf, shoulder). These injuries are very concerning, as he could re-aggravate them pretty easily and deal with it all season long.

Stanton’s numbers may be slightly better but Reyes is much more likely to be healthy and going 30 picks later. Judge has superstar 50 home run upside if he can stay healthy, and to me, Stanton does not. In his last full season, Stanton hit 38 home runs and had a .266 average. That is a good season, but it was also three years and plenty of injuries ago. If he suffers from any decline he won’t be much better than Jorge Soler who is going 36 picks later. 

I advise staying away from the two injury-prone outfielders in New York, as they are just too risky. With COVID-19, players who are available when their team has a game are going to be extremely valuable. There will almost certainly be delays and postponements on top of injuries, so keep that in mind. 

Victor Robles, Washington Nationals (FantasyPros ADP – OF 53 Overall 181)

While Robles has suffered a significant drop off from his ADP going into 2020, it still isn’t far enough. Last season was a struggle for him, with only three home runs and four stolen bases with a .220 average in 52 games. This came after what was a very solid first full season with 17 home runs and 28 stolen bases with a .255 average in 155 games. 

Robles’ exit velocity ranked in the first percentile in major league baseball, meaning it is in the lowest possible percentile. His hard-hit percentage was in the second percentile and his barrel percentage in the fifth percentile. Simply put, he doesn’t hit the ball with any authority whatsoever. 

Even understanding that he hits the ball extremely weak, that isn’t necessarily my main reason for avoiding him entirely. His sprint speed went from the 95th percentile in 2018 and 2019 to the 79th in 2020. If he is no longer a threat to steal 30 bags, there is almost no reason to draft him.


If Robles replicates his stats from last season you’ll be looking at around a 10 home run, 12 stolen base player who hits at the bottom of the lineup with a career xBA of .228. Oscar Mercado, a similar who is going as the 447th overall player, is likely to provide better numbers than Robles. He is, in my opinion, the most overvalued outfielder in Fantasy Baseball this season. 


Make sure you bookmark our Fantasy Baseball category page to consume all of our 2021 MLB content in the coming weeks!

About Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow is from Nova Scotia, Canada and is currently enrolled at Saint Marys University. Brandon enjoys fantasy sports, music, and spending time with loved ones. Find him on Twitter at B_MorrowFB

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