2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Pitchers

by Mike Bonni
2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Pitchers

Welcome everyone to the 2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Pitchers article. Baseball is right around the corner and spring training will be starting before you know it. These are good times for Fantasy Baseball fans because we can finally start drafting our teams.

I am here to make sure you aren't valuing certain pitchers as high as they currently are. Drafting a pitcher early only for him to get hurt or underperform can ruin your season so this article is meant to steer you away from these over-valued pitchers.

Not to say these pitchers will be busts. But at their current ADP, they may not provide the returns that managers are hoping for.

2021 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Pitchers

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Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - Current Ranking: (P16, OVR: 52)

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Tyler Glasnow is a great pitcher. Since becoming a starter with the Rays in 2019 he is 11-2. However, at his current ADP of 52 he is being drafted a little too high. At that price, he will end up as an SP2 or SP3 on most teams. He can hurt your fantasy season quite quickly if you draft him that high.

He has yet to pitch over 100 innings in a season, this is because of injuries but still a little sketchy. The most wins he has in a season is six and he has only had one year under a 4.00 ERA and that was a 1.78 ERA in 2019.

Glasnow struggles with a high walk rate (3.5/9 in 2020, 4.2/9 in career) even when healthy. If he can bring his BB/9 down to what it was in 2019(2.1), and stay healthy he can be a solid pitcher. As of right now, I wouldn't be drafting him this high unless he falls a couple of rounds.

Dinelson Lamet, SP, San Diego Padres - Current Ranking: (P30, OVR: 91)

This is going to be a short one for many reasons. I don't think Dinelson Lamet will be a bad pick in fantasy this year at all but we have to remember his injury history before we dive in and draft him this early. Let him fall a few rounds before you take him.

Lamet has only pitched over 100 innings in a season once and that was his rookie season where he went 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA. This was the year he pitched his most games (21) and his most innings (114.1). Since then he has failed to pitch more than 14 games in a season.

His ERA prior to last season's breakout (2.09) hovered around the mid 4's so that is something of a concern going into 2021. Another concern is his career walk rate of 3.7 per nine innings. If he can bring this down and stay healthy the sky is the limit.

Dylan Bundy, SP, Los Angeles Angels - Current Ranking: (P46, OVR: 128)

Dylan Bundy was pretty solid in 2020, finishing top ten in the CY Young award race going 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA. This was a shortened season which was mostly against the same opponents so I would temper your expectations on Bundy in 2021. As of right now, Bundy is being drafted way too high(P46) for my liking. I would much rather have Sixto Sanchez, Julio Urias, or even Frankie Montas at the same price.

Prior to 2020, Bundy's ERA never went lower than 4.00 over a full season. He hasn't won more than 10 games in a season since 2017 (13 wins) and only has two double-digit win seasons in his career. In his last three years he is 21-33.

Bundy also allows a ton of hits (8.8 hits per nine innings) and his BB/9 (3.0 career) isn't much better. If he can fix those two things he has a real shot of performing well this year. There are just too many negatives for me to want to draft him in 2021.

Kevin Gausman, SP, San Francisco Giants- Current Ranking: (P52, OVR: 148)

Why? Kevin Gausman has never had a winning season in his career. His best was two .500 win seasons in 2014 and 2020.

He needs to bring down his H/9 (7.5 in 2020, 9.3 in his career), and get some more wins for him to be fantasy relevant. Gausman has only won double-digit games twice(2017, and 2018) but was under .500 in both of those years.


Craig Kimbrel, RP/CP, Chicago Cubs - Current Ranking: 63, OVR: 177)

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This makes me laugh that Kimbrel is being ranked this high. He is being ranked higher than Dustin May, Aaron Civale, Corey Kluber, Dallas Kuechel, etc. I can literally go 10 more pitchers that should be ranked higher than Kimbrel but I won't do that.

Since joining the Cubs in 2019, he is sporting a pathetic 6.00 ERA and only 15 saves. He has yet to win a game as a Cub(0-5) and has an insanely high BB/9(6.0), H/9(7.8), and HR/9(2.8).

Please avoid him at all cost this fantasy season.

Make sure you bookmark our Fantasy Baseball category page to consume all of our 2021 MLB content in the coming weeks!

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1 comment

Jesse Turpin February 25, 2021 - 1:00 pm

I don’t think Wins are a very useful predictive metric. Why should Bundy or Gausman be punished just because they used to be Orioles? Do you downgrade DeGrom for his historical difficulties with Wins?

Bundy is a good candidate for regression, but Gausman looks like he’s evolved. Just my take.


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