Fantasy Baseball

2021 Fantasy Baseball Playoffs xwOBA Targets


Welcome to the 2021 Fantasy Baseball Playoffs xwOBA Targets! If you are reading this, you are most likely still fighting for the Grand Prize in your league(s), so congratulations and good luck!

This a series we started this season on Fantasy Six Pack where we look for under rostered xwOBA targets in Fantasy Baseball for the week ahead. We set the cutoff at 65% rostered on Yahoo and reverted back to a minimum 150 plate appearances for this update. We wanted to make sure we included players that have been called up during the Summer or who missed time and are back on the field.

xwOBA data via Baseball Savant. does a great job explaining xwOBA vs wOBA.

“Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play.”

2021 Fantasy Baseball Playoffs xwOBA Targets

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PlayerTeamRostxwOBAwOBAwRC+ SznwRC+ L30
Tyler O'NeillSTL57%.388.361129137
Darin RufSF3%.385.397152140
Connor JoeCOL26%.370.367116132
Carson KellyARI24%.364.350118111
Mike ZuninoTB49%.356.356131190
Hunter RenfroeBOS61%.356.343115150
Michael ConfortoNYM56%.354.314101136
Jed LowrieOAK18%.353.321108111
Josh BellWAS64%.351.339110125
Brandon NimmoNYM23%.351.371137125
LaMonte Wade Jr.SF11%.351.35412493
Tommy PhamSD61%.349.32310447
Andrew McCutchenPHI58%.349.33611061
J.D. DavisNYM32%.348.368135114
Yan GomesOAK13%.348.3189974
Enrique HernandezBOS56%.347.349118148
Jace PetersonMIL6%.347.364127172
Max KeplerMIN38%.346.317100115
Brad MillerPHI7%.346.331107143
Brandon BeltSF29%.346.377140146
Brent RookerMIN0%.345.3049194
Ramon UriasBAL4%.345.337115107
Josh HarrisonOAK30%.345.347117127

Tyler O’Neill has had an inconsistent season. However, he hit .304 in August with four home runs to give him 21 on the year. He also carried a .411 OBP and a .917 OPS last month. That being said, he has hit just one home run over his last 40 plate appearances. O’Neill owns a 55.1% HardHit rate which is in the top 3%, a .563 xSLG which is in the top 4% and a 17.3% Barrel rate which sits in the top 5%. His xwOBA (.388) and xwOBAcon (.542) are both top 7% in the league too.

The St. Louis Cardinals as a team were a top 10 offense in the month of August and O’Neill is hitting in the middle of a lineup that features Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. If Tyler is still available, you should roster him throughout the rest of the season.

Somehow, someway, the San Francisco Giants are the best team in the National League (now tied with the Dodgers). Ruf has had an incredible season, but the roster is deep and everybody plays and contributes. Ruf led the team in wRC+ for the month of August, but his 60 plate appearances ranked 10th.

Connor Joe picked up 20 RBI in August while hitting six home runs. Joe’s wRC+ in August was one point higher than Joey Votto and one point less than Pete Alonso. The Rockies offense came to life in August, scoring 141 runs which were good for the 7th most in the MLB,

Shoutout to C.J. Cron who was a featured player in this series all season long.

The New York Mets offense seems poised to break out in the final month of the season. The Division and a Wild Card spot are both within reach. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are both contributing but in different ways. Nimmo is the table-setter at the top of the lineup who scores runs while Conforto has extra pop in his bat and is more likely to pick up an RBI each night. Hopefully, Conforto’s 10 extra-base hits in August carry over into September.

Josh Bell hit 12 home runs in 274 plate appearances in the first half. That’s good for one per 22.8 PA. Since the All-Star Break, Bell has hit 11 home runs in 164 plate appearances. That’s good for one home run ever 15 PA. That’s top 20 in the league among *qualified hitters* in the second half. Bell owns a 51.4% HardHit rate this season.

*Hunter Renfroe and LaMonte Wade Jr. are also in the top 20 HR/PA rate!*

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About Keith Lott

I have one goal, to help you win your league. It does not matter if you are a fantasy rookie or a veteran. Everyone has questions, and I have opinions. Lot(t)s of them!

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