2021 Fantasy Baseball Statcast Deep Dive: Miami Marlins

by Jordan McDonald
2021 Fantasy Baseball Statcast Deep Dive: Miami Marlins

Welcome to another edition of the 2021 Fantasy Baseball Statcast Deep Dive featuring the Miami Marlins!

For this week, we will stay in the state of Florida and travel down south to Miami. The Marlins find themselves at the bottom of a tough NL East division, but they have received solid contributions from a handful of their players, especially from the pitching rotation.

They possess a group of fantasy-relevant players who may have fallen under the radar before the season. But they have made an impact so far and they could help your roster as we head into the summer months.

2021 Fantasy Baseball Statcast Deep Dive: Miami Marlins

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Sandy Alcantara

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Even with their prized young arm Sixto Sanchez on the mend, the Marlins starting rotation has been sort of a fantasy revelation in 2021. And that starts with their presumptive ace, Sandy Alcantara, who has recorded a 3.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for the season.

In an era where pitchers are throwing the hardest they ever had (spider tack notwithstanding), Alcantara ranks second in fastball velocity at 97.8 MPH. And because of that, he doesn't give up a lot of hard contact (i.e., barrels). He also ranks second in barrels per plate appearance only behind Corbin Burnes. Plus, he is sitting near the top of the list in HR/9 among all qualified pitchers.

Despite his flame-throwing ability, Alcantara has only recorded a K/9 of 8.41. But according to the numbers, his fastball isn't even his preferred pitch. His Put Away percentage for the four-seam fastball is 17.5 while his other pitches are above 20. He has thrown his changeup the most amount of times and has recorded the most strikeouts with that pitch. However, he is cruising through a career year and the strikeout ratio is not something that is overly worrisome.

Trevor Rogers

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Not to be confused with the Rogers twins (Taylor and Tyler), but Trevor is having an incredible sophomore season for the Marlins. He has recorded a 1.98 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 95 Ks in 81.2 innings pitched. The southpaw also owns a 7-3 record across 14 starts this season.

The numbers on his Statcast page support the breakout season. He is ranked above the 50th percentile in every category listed, excluding Max Exit Velocity. Although, he doesn't rank in the 90th percentile in any of them either. His expected statistics are still admirable; his xBA (.205) and xSLG (.324) are both ranked within the top 20 percent among all pitchers, and his xERA of 2.84 is ranked within the top 15 percent.

The most impressive statistic would be his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) compared with the rest of the league. His FIP of 2.50 is ranked sixth among all qualified pitchers, and trails players such as DeGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Brandon Woodruff. His expected FIP (xFIP) of 3.38 is a bit lower down the list at 14th, but considering that mark is near the top, it's nothing to be concerned about.

It appears that Rogers should continue putting up these numbers for the rest of the season. After finishing with an ADP of 318 according to FantasyPros, Rogers' ownership is currently over 90 percent and he is rewarding those who plucked him off waivers early in the season.

Pablo Lopez

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Unlike Rogers, Lopez was highly sought after in drafts after recording a 3.61 ERA in 11 starts last season. In fact, he was only three pitchers behind Alcantara in overall ADP. For this season, he has followed up with a 3.12 ERA in 14 starts.

Lopez doesn't possess overwhelming stuff; his fastball velocity and curve spin are both considered average among the rest of the league. However, he has a batting average against of .214 on his four-seam fastball and .143 on his curveball. The expected numbers on those pitches could not be more different. The four-seam fastball remains close at .212, but the curveball is sitting at an unbelievable .341.

He also does a tremendous job at giving up soft contact against hitters. His average Exit Velocity is ranked inside the 90th percentile and his Hard Hit rate is ranked in the top 15 percent of MLB pitchers. As for his expected ERA (xERA), it is essentially flipped from his numbers last season. He possessed an xERA of 3.12 in 2020 but has a 3.62 so far into this season.

Despite the strange numbers, Lopez seems to be making his pitch arsenal work. And he still possesses above-average numbers to be a reliable starter for your team every week.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

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There isn't a lot of fantasy relevance coming from the hitters of the Marlins. However, Jazz has been sensational in his rookie season, shoring up the infield, and mostly finds himself atop the batting order. For the season, he owns a .265/.330/.459 slash with eight home runs and nine stolen bases.

Unfortunately, his Statcast page predicts that he will begin crashing down to earth soon. His xBA (.228) and xSLG (.409) is sitting much lower than his actual numbers and his Sweet Spot Percentage is just barely over 30. His strikeout rate of 32.6 percent is currently ranked in the bottom five percent of the league and that will be part of his demise if that doesn't improve.

One benefit for him is the power that he possesses in his swing. His Hard Hit rate is currently above 40 percent and his Barrel percentage is over 10. Also, his average Exit Velocity is just under 90 MPH but is only considered average (46th percentile) across the league. However, his best ability may be his baserunning with a Sprint Speed that is ranked top six in the MLB.

Jazz has a lot of room to grow as a major-league hitter, but you may want to consider selling high in redraft leagues if he intends to crater on the stat sheet.

Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Baseball content from our great team of writers.

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