2021 Fantasy Best Ball ADP Movement on Underdog

by Davis Peng
2021 Fantasy Best Ball ADP Movement on Underdog

Welcome everybody to my 2021 Fantasy Best Ball ADP Movement on Underdog. 

I am a big proponent for Fantasy Best Ball tournaments and currently do all my championship drafts/tournaments on Underdog Fantasy. Underdog can be accessed via app or on their website, use the PROMO code SIXPACK for your first deposit, and you will get a $25 bonus, good enough to enter their contest Best Ball Mania II or The Puppy contest where you can win grand cash prizes up to $1 million.

Best Ball tournaments in Underdog have been ongoing since after the draft in April. I have been keeping track of ADP movement from the opening of Best Ball Mania II till the present day of July. When you look at ADPs for the opening weeks, the first two rounds generally stay the same, but then the movement occurs. When you begin to look at rounds three on, you start to see significant deviations. I will list my favorite ADP changes and why I believe they moved.

If you are new to Best Ball, please check out my Best Ball Draft Strategy here. One of my main tips is to draft throughout the season to get value throughout the season.

2021 Fantasy Best ball ADP Movement on Underdog

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ADP Fallers

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Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Original ADP 167 - Current ADP 210

This one is pretty much a given with the ongoing legal issues, but it is interesting to know that at one point, people were drafting Watson at the ADP of 167. The Fantasy managers were hoping to get value in case he returned. As we get closer to the season opener, it looks as if the Fantasy managers are starting to not believe in a return. If you do happen to draft Watson, he is going much later, and his return would be an instant value. I would advise against doing that, though.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - Original ADP 106 - Current ADP 139

After the Atlanta Falcons left the 2021 NFL Draft with generational talent tight end Kyle Pitts, we saw the hype train for Matt Ryan begin as he was drafted as a top twelve quarterback at the beginning of the Best Ball tournaments. Then the Julio Jones trade to the Tennessee Titans occurred. This has plummeted Ryan's draft stock to the middle of the QB2s, even falling behind multiple rookie quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Ryan is still one of my underrated quarterbacks this season, and I still recommend drafting him as a value pick. I have listed my reasons in a previous article here.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Original ADP 173.8 - Current ADP 195.6

Pittsburgh Steelers long-time franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is returning for one more season. However, Fantasy managers aren't too keen on returning as he is being drafted as a QB3. This has slowly been going further down. I bring attention to this because three of the Steeler's receivers are being drafted between the fifth and seventh rounds. Our consensus is that Roethlisberger will be terrible, but at the same time, he will produce three fantasy-relevant wide receivers.

ADP Risers

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Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans - Original ADP 115 - Current ADP 104

The biggest veteran quarterback riser this off-season is Ryan Tannehill. As a Dolphins fan and Tannehill truther, this brings a big smile to my face. There are two reasons why Tannehill has been rising in ADP. First, Julio Jones is now a Tennessee Titan and possibly has the best wide receiver duo in the league to reference my Matt Ryan blurb. Along with many analysts praising Tannehill's efficiency as a passer and his ability to rush the ball. It isn't surprising that he is currently climbing this off-season.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers - Original ADP 131 - Current ADP 117

2021 third overall draft pick by the San Francisco 49ers is an ADP riser. People believe that Lance will eventually start and that Head Coach Shanahan will scheme him into fantasy relevancy. Like how he did in the past on the Washington Football Team for Robert Griffin III. Fantasy managers are okay with having Lance ride their Best Ball benches until he starts because he starts. The assumption is that it will be magical as he is surrounded by elite receiving talent and is a mobile quarterback willing to run the ball himself.

Running Backs

After the "Puppy" contest was released, running backs outside of the consensus top-five zone have begun to plummet quite a bit, with more Fantasy Managers deviating towards taking top-end wide receivers and, in some cases, tight ends. With the numbers shifting lately, I will be writing specifically about the running back ADP changes compared to other running backs rather than ADP as a whole. Of course, this will also apply to the wide receivers.

ADP Fallers

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Saquon Barkley, New York Giants - Original ADP 4 - Current ADP 7

New York Giants star Running back Saquon Barkley was the fourth overall pick at the start of the Underdog contests. Throughout the off-season, we have seen Barkley's ADP start to fall and, in some cases, even end up in the second round. Fantast Managers have a hard time trusting the Giant's o-line, their quarterback Daniel Jones, and Barkley's overall health. The reports from Giants camp that he may not start in the first few weeks or may have a snap count are causing his ADP to fall.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers - Original ADP 7 - Current ADP 19

At the beginning of the Underdog contests, Greenbay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers released that he was upset with his franchise and would be sitting out for the year if he didn't get traded. However, as the off-season has continued to progress with no immediate return by Rodgers, this has caused all players on the Packers to fall, including running back Aaron Jones. Jones has shown that he is a talented dual-threat player, but the lack of Rodgers plus the lack of faith in Jordan Love is causing Fantasy Managers to let Jones slip past them in drafts. Originally the RB7 coming into the season, he is now the RB13.

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions - Original ADP 24 - Current ADP 34

Going from one NFC North Franchise to another. Detroit Lion's running back, D'Andre Swift, had a good finish at the end of the 2020 season, and the hype carried over to the early parts of the Underdog contests. With Kerryon Johnson being cut by the Lions, it looked like Swift had a clear path to be a three-down back. Then, Offensive Coordinator, Anthony Lynn began speaking about having a running back tandem with free-agent acquisition Jamaal Williams. Then along came the team visit from Todd Gurley. The Lions are not instilling confidence in Fantasy managers to draft D'Andre Swift as high as they did before. Swift is actively being drafted as the RB16 even with the ADP shift.

ADP Risers

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Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys - Original ADP 9 - Current ADP 5

As a result of Ezekiel Elliott having a terrible second half of the 2020 NFL season, fantasy managers were fading him at the beginning of these contests. As we are getting closer to the start season, there has been good news coming out of the Dallas Cowboys training camp. The offensive line is getting back to full strength, Elliot is looking in great shape, and Dak Prescott is looking to resume where he left off. Fantasy managers are starting to remember what made Zeke a top-five running back in the past. I believe that Elliot's rise from RB8 to RB5 has a little bit to do with Barkley falling out of the top due to his current health concerns.

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers - Original ADP 96 - Current ADP 77

Back again on the San Francisco 49ers rookies. Third-round pick Trey Sermon has burst his way up the ADP as there is uncertainty with last season's running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Throw in the departure of Tevin Coleman, Kyle Shanahan offensive genius narrative, and voila, you got yourself a hyped-up player. Sermon's overall ADP isn't terrible compared to other rookie running backs such as Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, or Javonte Williams. Sermon could be a value but based on the history of Kyle Shanahan, hot potato running back is a possibility.

Giovani Bernard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Original ADP 217 - Current ADP 187

Long time Cincinnati Bengal running back Giovani Bernard has finally moved on to a different franchise in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This has raised Bernard's ADP with Fantasy managers hoping to get Tom Brady's new James White. The speculation is that Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette are incredibly terrible at pass-catching. In turn, Brady will force Bernard into fantasy relevancy because he loves to pass to his backfield.

Wide Receivers

Due to the recent puppy contest, ADP has shifted, with receivers prioritized over running backs. With the numbers deviating lately, I will be writing specifically about the wide receiver ADP changes compared to other wide receivers rather than ADP as a whole.

ADP Fallers

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Denzel Mims, New York Jets - Original ADP 143 - Current ADP 190

The New York Jets second-round pick Denzel Mims was expected to be one of the lead guys on the team. With a new rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson, new coaching staff, and stepping away from his injury-plagued debut. We were expecting to see Mims being featured as the WR2 behind free agent acquisition Corey Davis. Then Keelan Cole, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore had favorable OTAs and training camp news. In contrast, Mims news is not as bright, possibly splitting field time and considering the team's third option. As a result, fantasy Managers have begun to fade Mims and are seeking value elsewhere.

Josh Reynolds, Tennessee Titans - Original ADP 160 - Current ADP 210

When Josh Reynolds left the St. Louis Rams to join the Tennessee Titans, there was a glimmer of hope for a Reynolds to finally breakout. Originally being drafted in rounds thirteen, Fantasy Managers were ready to give this player a chance. Then the Julio Jones trade occurred, and now Reynolds has fallen to the ADP abyss as undrafted. So maybe next year will be Reynold's year.

Will Fuller, Miami Dolphins - Original ADP 76 - Current ADP 82

When Will Fuller news broke that he signed a one-year contract with the Miami Dolphins, fantasy Managers were taking Fuller in the hopes that he would repeat what he did with the Houston Texans. Then during OTAs, there are rumors of quarterback Tua Tagovaiola not being a great passer as he threw numerous interceptions. Followed by the fact that there is a lot of competition for targets in rookie Jaylen Waddle, team veteran Devante Parker, and tight end Mike Gesicki. There is also the ADP rise of other receivers such as Mike Williams, Deebo Samuels, and Antonio Brown

ADP Risers

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Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons - Original ADP 167 - Current ADP 106

We talked about the Julio Jones trade and how it destroyed Josh Reynolds ADP and Isaac Newton's third law states. "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." Meet the opposition reaction in Russell Gage's ADP. He has risen multiple rounds as Fantasy managers trying to get the Atlanta Falcons WR2. Combined with Gage's success in the 2020 season, there is an expectation he will produce fantasy-relevant numbers.

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots - Original ADP 207 - Current ADP 155

At the beginning of the Best Ball contests, Jakobi Meyers has pushed aside for free-agent acquisitions Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry. Fantasy managers assumed that Meyer's end-of-the-season fantasy relevancy was going to stay in 2020. After OTAs and news of training camp that Meyer is likely to resume his slot role for Newton. Fantasy Managers are now hoping to get the end-of-season numbers that Meyer was putting up.

Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions - Original ADP 208 - Current ADP 165

I find it rather tough to believe that a wide receiver who has had injury issues and hasn't played a single NFL game since 2019 is climbing in ADP. Yet, here we are speaking about Tyrell Williams of all people. The Detroit Lions veteran free agent acquisitions in Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams had Fantasy managers writing off the team. There was to believe that at least Perriman would be fantasy relevant as he has had some decent games in recent history. Then the camp news broke that Williams was healthy and outperforming all wide receivers on the team. This has moved Williams up through the ADP ladder, hoping that garbage time will create opportunities for Williams to get points.

Tight Ends

ADP Fallers

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George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers - Original ADP 22 - Current ADP 26

Here we are talking about the San Francisco 49ers once again, but this is regarding their best-receiving weapon on the team. This is particularly special to speak of because Darren Waller is being drafted ahead of Kittle, pushing him down to TE3 this season. There is no particular reason besides that Fantasy managers believe Waller will outperform Kittle this season even if they both play an entire season.

Robert Tonyan, Greenbay Packers - Original ADP 116 - Current ADP 136

2020's tight end sleeper Robert Tonyan is another victim of Aaron Rodger's feud with the organization. Originally being drafted relatively high at the beginning of the contests, Tonyan has slowly slipped down the ADP ladder. The only way I see Tonyan's ADP going up is if Rodger announces that he is staying on the team or if Jordan Love gets great camp reviews. Tonyan could be a value pick-up if either news breaks.

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans - Original ADP 154 - Current ADP 170

The original outlook for Anthony Firkser was that he would take over the Jonnu Smith role. Possibly be the 2nd receiving option on the team ahead of Josh Reynolds. This created a lot of hype for Firkser, but as you know, the Jones trade occurred, and Firkser ended up being another casualty. However, he may still be a valuable safety net and likely to be the third receiving option on the team.

ADP Risers

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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons - Original ADP 61 - Current ADP 47

I have officially gone full circle in talking about the effects of the Julio Jones trade. With Anthony Firsker's ADP dropping, Kyle Pitts did the complete opposite. He rose through the bracket and is being treated as this season's TE4. The expectation is that he will receive most of the vacated targets that Jones commanded but without being double covered. This has even had Fantasy Managers just fading George Kittle to draft Pitts later.

Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints - Original ADP 173 - Current ADP 134

With Jared Cook leaving the New Orleans Saints, this has created an opportunity for sophomore tight end Adam Trautman. With Trautman stepping in at the lead tight end for the Saints, there is an opportunity for him to be fantasy relevant. Being the go-to tight end in a Sean Payton offense has been beneficial for many tight ends in the past. Fantasy managers are hoping history repeats itself with Trautman. 

Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Football content from our fantastic team of writers!

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