Being about one month removed from the Julio Jones trade, it's time to reflect on how the market has adjusted in terms of ADP in Best Ball. There are plenty of implications to be had across both teams following this trade. So let's dive into some 2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball: Falcons/Titans ADP Tracker.
Julio Jones has been one of the best wide receivers in the league, and in Fantasy Football, over the past decade. So it's clear that his absence or presence on a team can dictate Fantasy values.
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2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball: Falcons/Titans ADP Tracker
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Underdog ADP
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One thing to note, the ADP data was collected on the day the trade broke, so it's had roughly a month to sit. Positive values for the change in ADP correspond to an increase in ADP (towards the first round), while negative values represent a decrease in ADP (towards the end of the draft).
| Player | Team | Position | Previous ADP | Current ADP | Change in ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | ATL | QB | 116.9 | 134.8 | -17.9 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | WR | 22.9 | 18.6 | 4.3 |
| Russel Gage | ATL | WR | 135.8 | 112.4 | 23.4 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | 212.5 | 201.4 | 11.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 57.1 | 44.8 | 12.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | 123.9 | 100.3 | 23.6 |
| AJ Brown | TEN | WR | 16.5 | 23.1 | -6.6 |
| Julio Jones | TEN | WR | 41 | 39.7 | 1.3 |
| Josh Reynolds | TEN | WR | 164.9 | 213.4 | -48.5 |
| Anthony Firkser | TEN | TE | 135.5 | 166.4 | -30.9 |
Essentially every pass catcher in Atlanta saw their ADP rise with Julio Jones's departure. The only one who took a hit? The quarterback.
Matt Ryan's decrease in value is completely justified. It's evident if you go from your WR2 being Julio Jones, to now Russell Gage, it's a recipe for regression.
Meanwhile, everyone seems to be bullish on the pass catchers due to a thing known as vacated targets. In reality, I believe Pitts will be one of the biggest beneficiaries to Jones's departure.
On the other end in Tennessee, quite the opposite shift has occurred. Ryan Tannehill's stock has boomed, while the pass catchers have shied away some drafters.
ADP Thoughts - Atlanta
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Ryan had a tough time last year, but in my opinion, he's fine at his current ADP thanks to the dip. Kyle Pitts is no Julio Jones, but at the same time, Ryan managed to finish as the QB12 overall with Jones missing most of the season last year.
At the end of the day, Kyle Pitts is better than nothing. I don't mind Ryan's new ADP, but I'm not chasing him there without a stack.
As much as I think Ridley and Gage will benefit from the trade, their ADPs aren’t the beneficiaries. Both have quickly jumped up into a range in which they are being drafted more near their ceilings.
Ridley and Gage are no longer values. I’ll still grab my fair share of both, but the time to draft them was in the weeks preceding the Julio trade. We were fairly confident a trade would happen.
Pitts is still intriguing at his new ADP simply because of his positional scarcity. Likewise Pitts is being drafted more near his ceiling as well.
For me though, I’d much rather chase the ceiling that comes with a scarcity edge. There are far more wide receivers that can find their way into a top-10 finish, compared to a tight end climbing into the big-3 territory.
ADP Thoughts - Tennessee
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The biggest thing that bothered me concerning Tennessee's offense this year was their floor. What would that offense be if AJ Brown went down, or Derrick Henry missed time?
I was worried Tannehill's efficiency couldn't thrive off of only AJ Brown. However, the addition of Jones boosts my outlook on Tannehill, much like the rest of the market.
While I certainly want to fade Josh Reynolds since he'll be playing alongside two monster alpha wide receivers, I'm less concerned about Firkser with his downward shift.
Firkser's ADP was already beginning to climb too high for my own liking. And while I believe the Jones trade caps his upside, I think Firkser can find his way into a solid enough role to justify his current ADP in the 14th round.
Likewise, I'm still in on AJ Brown with the market's correction on his price. While his days of finishing as the WR1 are seemingly over, I'm still projecting Brown to finish as a top-12 receiver.
I'm simply staying away from Josh Reynolds, and any attempts at a late round shot on Dez Fitzpatrick. Otherwise, this Tennessee offense will be one to own.
Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers!
