Fantasy Football

2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Players

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Welcome everybody to the beginning of my 2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Players series for Best Ball Championships. This list is in no way saying that these players aren’t good. I want to point out that these players, in my opinion, are over-drafted.

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With that taken care of, let’s get down to business. Here are some of 2021’s Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Players.

2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Players

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D’Andre Swift RB, Detroit Lions (ADP 22 – RB14)

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Let’s start this list off with D’Andre Swift, I like Swift, but I won’t be drafting him unless he slips into the 3rd round. This has nothing to do with Swift but everything to do with the Detroit Lions. The Lions team grades in 2020 are 32nd in defense and 15th in offense. These numbers came with Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones still on the team.

The team has since replaced both players with less-skilled counterparts in Jared Goff, Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, and Geronimo Allison. The last NFL teams to use these three as starters didn’t get any return on them. I am not expecting any changes in that.

The only notable members of the new-look Lions offense are Swift, TJ Hockenson, and two offensive linemen in Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker. This will put a lot of pressure on Swift as he will likely end up facing stacked boxes.

Why I’m Avoiding Swift

D’Andre Swift is a good running back. He checks all the marks when it comes to rushing, pass-catching, and pure athleticism. That being said, he went into the 2020 season injured, continued to miss multiple games due to injury, and gave up carries due to injury. In 2020 Swift only had one game where he eclipsed 100+ rushing yards. That was against a bottom-tier defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Swift has four games in total where he broke 100+ yards from scrimmage.

I believe that the Lions will be forced to pass in nearly every game, and this will either hurt or help Swift’s production. I believe the production from Swift will be there, but you may be dealing with inconsistent production from week to week. For a 1st/2nd round pick, I find him a bit expensive, and that is why I will avoid him. It’s not about not drafting Swift, and it’s about who you’re giving up to get Swift.

TJ Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions (ADP 71 – TE5)

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This may look like I am simply crapping on the Detroit Lions. However, none of this is undeserved. TJ Hockenson is a first-round TE talent and his 2020 season proved that he has the ability to be relevant. The Lions will also be playing from behind in most games, allowing a good set of opportunities.

Why I’m Avoiding Hockenson

So why am I saying that he is overrated? For me, it all leads back to the current Lions roster. They do not have any respected receivers on the team. This alone will burden Hockenson to fill that role and take on stronger matchups. The QB change to Goff is a clear downgrade with chemistry loss. Goff has yet to produce a fantasy-relevant tight end.

I don’t feel comfortable using significant draft capital on a player who will face the challenges Hockenson will face. I don’t believe Hockenson has the experience/talent to assume the number one receiving role. Past great players have failed to assume the number one role in the past such as Davante Adams in 2015.

The Lions current roster is highly reminiscent of the 2020 Jets, and I wouldn’t pay a premium for anything related to that.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 55 – WR23)

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Russell Wilson finally got the chance to cook in 2020, leading to Tyler Lockett finishing as WR9 on the season. His total stat line for 2020 was 1,054 yards and 10 touchdowns on 100 total receptions. These numbers look and sound great, but when you delve a bit deeper into the numbers, you see that 6 out of his 10 touchdowns came from just two games. Lockett only had five games where he surpassed 70 yards receiving.

Why I’m avoiding Lockett

The end-of-season numbers are great for Lockett, but these came alongside an all-time high season from Wilson in yardage, pass attempts, and touchdowns thrown. Towards the end of the season, Wilson began to struggle greatly against Cover 2. Teams managed to hold Wilson under 270 yards passing for the last seven games of the season, three of which were under 200 yards passing.

Lockett is a good receiver, but to be drafted in the 4th or 5th round is drafting him at his ceiling. In reality, his status as a boom-or-bust puts him on your bench. I find that price a bit expensive to be a bench warmer. If Lockett slips to the sixth round, I would be more inclined to get him, but he is very reminiscent of Marvin Jones but a little better. Ask yourself, would you draft a slightly better Marvin Jones anywhere in the 5th round or earlier?

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 78 – QB 9)

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The replacement signal-caller for the Philadelphia Eagles is enticing to many people, and it’s clearly showing with his current ADP. Hurts is athletic, and that is the sizeable chunk of his appeal. The rushing yards and potential for rushing touchdowns are significant upsides, as past fantasy scores have shown.

Why I’m Avoiding Hurts

I am avoiding Hurts for two significant reasons. The draft capital required to take an unproven QB is too high for me. Hurts is currently ahead of Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, and Joe Burrow. I would easily take three of these guys in the later rounds over Hurts at his current ADP.

The second reason I am avoiding Hurts is the same issue I have with the Lions. The Eagles ranked 30th in offense in 2020. No changes in the off-season have convinced me they will be better this year. Their receiving corps in 2020 produced zero consistent receiving options unless Hurts can re-enact 2019 Lamar Jackson. I don’t see any reason to reach for Hurts.

Chase Claypool WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 62 – WR28)

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Steelers Nation is going to come after me for this one. Chase Claypool had a great rookie campaign with Ben Roethlisberger. 873 and nine receiving touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in his first year that is hype-worthy.

Behind the big numbers, I want to warn all buyers to tread carefully before picking up Claypool. There is a lot of variables that fantasy managers need to contemplate before drafting Claypool with high capital.

Why I’m Avoiding Claypool

Claypool had a great 2020 season, and his quarterback Roethlisberger is returning for one more season. Usually, this would be a cause for celebration but not this time around.

Roethlisberger will be coming into the season at the age of 39 and has piled up numerous injuries in his last few years. Only one season since 2015 has Ben played all 16 games. Only one season since 2015 has Roethlisberger thrown for over 4,000 yards and had 30 or more passing touchdowns.

Claypool has one of the more competitive receiving corps in the league. Having your peers be Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith Schuster, and Eric Ebron is not something I want my weekly starter to compete with. I don’t know if Roethlisberger will be able to keep them all fed.

This clearly showed from Week 11 to Week 16 when Claypool finished with less than 55 yards per game and zero total touchdowns.

 



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About Davis Peng

I am a Fantasy Football Fanatic, there is no such thing as an offseason to me. Having dabbled in competitive Best Ball the last few years even finishing in the semi finals for Draft Best Ball Championship in 2018 and making it to the second round with numerous teams in 2018/2019. Hoping to shed some light and knowledge for Best Ball players.

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