Welcome everybody to my 2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Quarterbacks articles for Best Ball.
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Let's get started on what you are here for. I will give you some 2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Quarterbacks that I feel are over-drafted. These players aren't bad, but I believe they are being taken higher than they should be. There are better QB values to choose from.
2021 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Quarterbacks
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Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 71 - QB7)
Russell Wilson finished his 2020 campaign as QB6 on the season. The Seahawks trusted their quarterback and allowed him to take the team's helm, and Wilson took full advantage of that. He set all high marks in yards from scrimmage with 4,725 total yards and 42 total touchdowns. For season finish, this looks great, but when you delve into the numbers, it isn't as good as it seems.
Why I'm Hesitant On Buying Wilson
"Let Russ cook" is a narrative we heard all season, and on paper, it looked like Wilson had crushed his previous high in passing attempts. In reality, he only surpassed his previous season-high with five more pass attempts. Wilson did score an all-time high in fantasy, but he didn't blow it out of the water. He only beat his previous all-time high by 14 points and three average highs of the past six years by 27 points. Spread out across 16 games, Wilson only produced 1.69 more points per game than his best years.
A significant reason why Wilson's numbers are higher than his previous years is that he had a career-high of 42 touchdowns and an above-average rushing season with 513 yards rushing yards. To compare Wilson's past four years, this is ten touchdowns and 122 rushing yards more than his recent season averages.
Wilson is a QB with any given week to give you high upside, but Wilson scored outside of the QB10 range seven times out of sixteen games. In comparison, Ryan Tannehill was outside the QB10 range only two more times than Wilson but is priced as QB16 instead of QB7.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (ADP 102 - QB11)
The news of Matthew Stafford leaving the Lions to go to the Rams was one of the biggest blockbuster trades of the off-season. This is great for Stafford as he is playing under the offensive-minded coach Sean Mcvay. He will also be accompanied by two upper-level talent wide receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
Even with the new team and coach, I believe that Stafford is being drafted at his peak, and anybody taking him to finish as a QB10 or better will be disappointed.
Why I'm Hesitant On Buying Stafford
The narrative for Stafford finishing as QB10 or better is "this is the best offense Stafford has ever played on." The description is accurate when you look at the entire offense, but Stafford has played with equally or more talented pass catchers from a pass-catching perspective. His past wide receivers included Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate III, TJ Hockenson, and the legendary Calvin Johnson. In thirteen full seasons of being in the NFL, Stafford has only thrown 30 or more touchdowns two times, and that was only in seasons he had Calvin Johnson. With the most recent season being 2015. Since 2015 Stafford has finished in the top five for touchdowns thrown in a season one time.
Stafford is a pocket passer who doesn't have the rushing upside as newer quarterbacks, rushing for approximately 100 yards per season or less. Stafford doesn't have the touchdown upside, such as Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Matt Ryan. He has a solid floor and has finished with approximately 275 fantasy points the last few seasons. I do not expect him to finish any better than QB10 on the season. I am putting him as a low-tier QB1 on the season or QB2 with upside.
Sean Mcvay is unlike the Detroit Lions past coaching; he is efficient in running the ball and will run the ball into the end zone and succeed. This further limits Stafford's ceiling.
The Rams were 30th in red zone pass attempts and 31st in passes per red zone trip.
Only 9.25% of Rams pass atts came in red zone - league avg was 12.21%. Only five teams were under 10 percent and the other four (WFT, PHI, NE, NYJ) were bottom seven in red zone trips.
— BestBallRatings (@ChangeCollege) May 15, 2021
In reality, Stafford is a better real-life quarterback than a fantasy quarterback.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (ADP 144 - QB20)
Baker Mayfield is being over-drafted in Best ball leagues and is a player I consider a QB3 best in best-ball formats. In best ball, every player has a role to play. Your QB2 (depth players) goal is to do their best to get off the bench and force their way into your starting lineup. Baker does this at an exceedingly low level.
This is not to include the value you are leaving on the board by drafting Mayfield instead of the other players. Players who will provide better value in most if not all roster lineups. Examples include Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Carson Wentz, Ty Hilton, Nelson Agholor, Anthony Firkser, and many others.
Why I'm Hesitant On Buying Mayfield
Mayfield was the 17th QB in pass attempts at 486 attempts and 30th in completion percentage. Players Mayfield beat out in completion percentages were against QBs with a depleted lineup such as Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. These players did not have as many pass attempts as Mayfield, but they also didn't play a full sixteen games. They were on pace to exceed Mayfield's 486 attempts if they played sixteen games.
Mayfield's floor is pretty low in comparison to other QBs that you could be drafting. Mayfield has been in the league for three years and hasn't broken 4,000 yards from scrimmage once. Mayfield, out of his last thirty-two games, fifteen of them he had one touchdown or less from scrimmage. Seven of those games were in 2020.
Mayfield has moments where he can have a big game, but those are extremely rare, and most of the time, he performs below the average QB2. In comparison to QB3, such as Derek Carr, who is going 10+ QB picks later. Derek Carr finished with QB1 numbers nine times in 2020; Mayfield only did it four times.
Mayfield is barely an ok quarterback in real life, let alone a good fantasy quarterback.
Rookie QBs (ADP 116 - 167/QB14 - QB24)
I understand that we get hyped for rookies, but drafting a rookie QB anything beyond a late QB2 is a gamble.
To get another record season year, such as Justin Herbert, is unlikely. The last quarterback to have the same yardage as Herbert was 2012 Andrew Luck, and he threw eight fewer touchdowns and eight more interceptions.
I averaged the twelve best quarterbacks rookie passing seasons since Matt Ryan until the present day. The rookie signal-callers averaged 3,786 passing yards and 21.6 touchdowns. Also, rushing quarterbacks are a bit more regular in today's NFL. Rookie quarterbacks go in between 200 - 300 yards; if they rush more than 300 yards, they complete much less than 3,786 yards passing yards. If you expect higher rushing totals then expect fewer throwing yards.
For the sake of science, let's say we get all these stats together for this breakout QB and increase his touchdown thrown. He plays fifteen games, and the season finish for this QB would be 3786 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, three fumble losses, and 200 rushing yards. This QB would be the equivalent of 2018 Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield was QB16 in 2018 with 254 total points. Finishing the 2020, 254 points are the equivalent of QB17.
Why I'm Hesitant On Buying Rookie QBs
Rookie QBs are the biggest unknown coming into the NFL season. We don't know what they are truly capable of. A good number of them don't play full seasons, most fall flat, and most teams with a rookie signal-caller usually have sub-par rosters to support them.
These details are nothing new to any experienced fantasy football manager. To get a QB2 with QB1 upside as a late pick is an excellent value, but Trevor Lawerence and Trey Lance are being selected as QB14/QB15. This, to me, is their ceiling, and you are not getting any value on these players. You could be drafting Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill at the same ADP range, if not later.
Take a cemented Veteran QB as your QB1, not a rookie QB. If you want a rookie QB then grab him because every player in Best Ball is worth a dart throw. Be wary with overextending your lineup and reaching to get these rookies.
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