Welcome Fantasy nerds, we at Fantasy Six Pack are plugging away with our offseason content. That continues today with the 2021 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft list.
This list will consist of players who I won’t be drafting in one quarterback leagues this Fantasy Football season for a multitude of reasons.
Whether it’s because their ADP is too high, their situation might have gotten worse, or they have just declined as a player. Now, let’s jump into some quarterbacks I want nothing to do with this draft season, in the 2021 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft list.
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2021 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft List
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (ECR QB9)
Jalen Hurts showed some flashes last season that he could be a solid fantasy option at the quarterback position. It was a small sample size with him only starting four games. But he did show somewhat of a solid floor with his rushing ability, with his lowest scoring week being 17 fantasy points. He also showed his ceiling by scoring 37 fantasy points against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15.
Now that we laid out all the good that we saw from Hurts last season, let’s lay out some of the negatives that we saw. Hurts struggled to take care of the football. In his four starts he had 9 total touchdowns, but had 10 total turnovers over that span as well, four interceptions and an alarming six fumbles.
Hurts also struggled to be efficient with his throwing of the football, he only had a 52% completion percentage. That wasn't even in the top 35 in the NFL for quarterbacks. To put that in perspective quarterbacks like Dwayne Haskins had a 61% completion percentage, and Drew Lock had a 57% completion percentage. Jalen Hurts passing options are highly unproven as well, except for Zach Ertz, who may be traded before the start of the season, and Dallas Goedert. His top two receivers are Devonta Smith who is a rookie out of Alabama, and second-year receiver Jalen Reagor.
From what I saw in that four-game sample size, I believe he is going too high in drafts as the QB9. His ADP according fantasydata.com is the 78th player off the board. I am not willing to take a quarterback with a four-game sample size and unproven weapons as my quarterback that early in drafts.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (ECR QB14)
Matt Ryan is coming off a season in which he finished as QB12 with arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Ryan finished with being number one in a lot of quarterback categories. The Falcons offense finished 3rd in pass attempts per game with 41.8. He also ranked 1st in the NFL in completed air yards according to playerprofiler.com.
Ryan losing his safety blanket for the last 10 years is pushing me far away from him this season. According to statmuse.com Matt Ryan has played 25 career games without Julio Jones. In those games, Ryan has a career line of 39 touchdowns and 25 interceptions which is a 2.7 interception percentage. He also has an 88.6 quarterback rating and a 4.2 touchdown percentage.
In 134 career games with Julio Jones in the lineup, Ryan posted a line of 242 touchdowns with 99 interceptions which is a 2.0 interception percentage. He also has a quarterback rating of 97.8 with a 4.8 touchdown percentage. So you can see a big difference. They did draft Kyle Pitts to help replace Jones and but it’s extremely hard for Rookie tight ends to produce at a high level.
The last thing that is scaring me away from Ryan this season is the change of coaches. He is moving from an offense that led the league in pass attempts. To Arthur Smith’s offense which ranked 30th in pass attempts per game with 31.8.
With Ryan’s ECR being QB14, that's just too high for a quarterback with a very low ceiling to be going. I’d rather take my chances on guys like Carson Wentz who is due for a bounce-back year. Or someone like Baker Mayfield who finished strong last season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ECR QB15)
I don’t think the hype can be any higher than it is on Trevor Lawrence coming into the NFL. He has been the consensus number one pick since he was a freshman at Clemson. But I personally am not sold that it is going to translate into the fantasy game in his rookie season.
He is coming into a situation with a first-time head coach in the NFL with Urban Meyer, who is already doing and saying some wild things this off-season. One was hiring the ex-strength and conditioning coach from Iowa Chris Doyle. Who then resigned the very next day amid racism allegations, saying he didn't want to be a distraction.
The second thing that has made me question Meyer’s coaching ability is the fact they drafted Travis Etienne with 25th pick of the draft. They already had a solid back on the roster in James Robinson, who had a breakout season last year, finishing as RB7 in fantasy football.
But the thing that concerns me more is that they were playing Etienne as the slot wide receiver in minicamps. Why do they feel the need to this when they already have Laviska Shenault? Shenault is already someone who lines up in the slot and can get some work as a running back as well.
A lot of this has nothing to do with the talent Lawrence possesses but the things they’re doing around him. Lawrence does have a solid rushing floor, however, which might help him fantasy-wise. The Jaguars' offensive line ranks 22nd in PFF’s offensive line rankings ahead of the 2021 season. So they may struggle protecting Lawrence this season.
Lawrence is currently going as QB15 according to fantasypros ECR. Which I don't believe is egregious. I’m just not sure this offense is ready to support a top 15 quarterback in fantasy football. I would much rather draft Carson Wentz or Baker Mayfield ahead of him just like I said about Matt Ryan.
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