2021 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

by Mike Bonni
2021 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

Welcome everyone to the 2021 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts article. We are rolling out the content here at F6P, so don’t miss out on some great fantasy advice. In this article, I will be providing you with a few busts at the Tight End position.

Nobody likes busting on players. For most positions, you can find a solid backup. When it comes to a tight end busting, you could be dead in the water. The tight end position is thin.

Most years, the tight end position has a bust or two inside the TE1. Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, and Zach Ertz (injury) were all drafted as a TE1 in 2020 and they all finished TE15 or lower. This year will be no exception. There are some juicy contenders currently going as TE1's that can easily bust. I will go over these players and more in the article below, so enjoy.

I am here to guide you in the right direction, so you don't waste a pick on a tight end that can ruin you down the line. So fantasy addicts, welcome to the 2021 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts article.

2021 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

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Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

This all depends on one person. That person is Zach Ertz. If Ertz stays, Goedert has to be brought down a touch in value. I would say high-end TE2. If you saw my sleepers article, you know Ertz commands a significant amount of targets still (when healthy). In fact, Ertz out-targeted Goedert 72 to 65 in 11 games played, for both. Ertz finished as TE31, Goedert TE20.

Dallas Goedert, in the Eagles offense, is used as the field-stretching tight end. This is evident by his nine deep targets (7th) and his 8.8 ADOT (6th). Unfortunately, this doesn't equate to touchdowns. Only three in 2020 and his career-high is five. He only got six red-zone targets (34th) in 2020, which is a little troublesome.

Goedert finished the 2020 season (weeks 10 to 17) as the TE7. He had three games over 10 fantasy points and six games with six or more targets. He needs to find the end zone more and command more of a target share to be drafted as a TE1. This could all change if they let Zach Ertz go, which is possible. If so, disregard everything I said about not drafting him. If Ertz stays though, proceed with caution.

I would monitor the situation before you do your drafting.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

This one will ruffle some feathers.

In 2020, Robert Tonyan came out of nowhere and finished as the TE4. He caught 52 balls (13th) on 59 targets (24th) with 586 yards (13th) and 11 touchdowns (1st). Tonyan even scored six touchdowns in his last seven games.

This all sounds great, but it actually is a recipe for a major regression. His catch % of 88.1 (1st) will be hard to sustain, along with his 21.2% TD rate. There are a few other factors that worry me. Robert Tonyan only had 1 game where he played over 70% of the snaps, 63% as an average (30th). This leads me to his low position in routes ran (19th).

Robert Tonyan is not the most active TE, especially one being drafted as a TE1. There were only two games where he had six or more targets. Although he still got targeted five or more times in seven games, at least.

Tonyan only managed to go over 50 yards four times. These are not impressive numbers, he was helped by his 11 touchdowns. I'm not saying avoid him. All I'm saying is don't draft him as a TE1. You will regret it.

*What if Aaron Rodgers doesn't come back? His value is already dropping in my eyes, maybe he should be in yours' too.*

Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys

Blake Jarwin played in one game in 2020. In 2019, Jarwin was TE28. Why are we drafting him so high?

Does Dalton Schultz not exist? He only finished as TE11 (63-615-4).

Yes! The Cowboy's offense is going to be powerful. There are a lot of mouths to feed, so it can get dicey for targets out there. Dalton Schultz had his solid year with no competition from other tight-ends.

What makes you think Blake Jarwin will be able to replicate these numbers? Now that the Cowboys will have both tight ends healthy, it should be anyone's job. This will make it hard to predict for the season. Weekly is going to be a disaster too. I would suggest letting someone else take Jarwin. If you want a tight end from Dallas, get Dalton Schultz. He is practically going undrafted.

What Should We Do with New England?

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Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry

What do we do about these two? We have seen the two-tight end system work tremendously in New England before. This time around, there is no Tom Brady. That right there should scare you a little bit. We now have Cam Newton or Mac Jones running the show. Will they be able to support two fantasy-worthy tight ends? I don't believe they can, especially with it being a running game, for now.

There is a good chance that they both bust at their current ADP. Although it is more likely that one succeeds while the other suffers. Figuring out who that will be is going to be a challenge. I suggest letting someone else deal with this headache.

I like Hunter Henry at his ADP (TE17), more than Jonnu Smith (TE11). If you want a tight end from New England, that is who I would go for.

The Quick Rundown

  • Dallas Goedert is in quite a situation. Draft if Ertz is gone, be cautious with him staying in town.
  • Robert Tonyan's TD efficiency scares me. Can he replicate this? Unlikely, so be careful with drafting him.
  • Blake Jarwin getting more love than Dalton Schultz? This is weird, Dalton deserves a role. This will hurt Jarwin's value. Avoid and draft Dalton later on.
  • The New England Patriots Tight End situation is nothing I want to be a part of. Good luck figuring out who will be the guy there.

I hope you guys enjoyed the 2021 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts article. See you all for the next one.

Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers!

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