Fantasy Football

2021 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Welcome to the 2021 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Stream-O-Matic!

Below are the results from Week 2 – improved results compared to Week 1. As we move forward, our results should get better and better as data becomes more reliable and isn’t based on small sample sizes.

En route to a 35-0 shutout over the Miami Dolphins, the Buffalo Bills recorded six sacks (Gregory Rousseau x2) on Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett. They also recovered two forced fumbles and Levi Wallace picked off Brissett in the first quarter after they knocked Tua out of the game. The Bills face Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team in Week 3.

The New England Patriots tormented New York Jets rookie quarter Zach Wilson. They racked up four sacks (Josh Uche x2) and four interceptions (J.C. Jackson x2)! They get Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints in Week 3.

Mike Edwards scored two touchdowns for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense with two pick-sixes! Tampa Bay faces off against Matthew Stafford‘s Los Angeles Rams offense in Week 3.

The Chiacgo Bears picked off Joe Burrow on three straight pass attempts, including a Roquan Smith 53 yard pick-six. The Bears sacked Burrow four times and the Cincinnati Bengals QB has now been sacked nine times in two weeks. He has a league-worst 13.6 sack percentage. The Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has the task of stopping Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs aerial attack in Week 3. It’s matchups like these that you must at least consider streaming a defense!

Thankfully, this early in the season, most rosters will not feature multiple defenses so you should have some pretty good options available to you.

I hope this experiment can be helpful when deciding between tough options. Good luck!

2021 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Rost%: Roster percentage based on Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues. This gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location (Home): Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. A five-point bonus is given to all home teams.
  • Vegas (Opp Implied): Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates an implied points total for each team. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which Fantasy Football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • Pressure (Prss%): Thanks to Pro Football Reference, we have access to advanced passing statistics. We are focused on pressure percentages here which includes QB hurries, hits and sacks.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.
  • Proj: I used Yahoo Week 3 projections for this column. It is added as a bonus and not scored like roto for all the other columns.

2021 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Stream-O-Matic Chart

ScoreTeamRost% OppHomeDEF DVOAOpp OFF DVOAPressureOpp ImpliedProj
130Broncos95%vsNYJ5232932329
124Patriots87%vsNO5302431277
114Steelers96%vsCIN5192727288
109Panthers66%@HOU0321621319
107Raiders20%vsMIA5173023257
100Bills85%vsWAS531916309
99Cardinals49%@JAX0273111237
96Bengals2%@PIT0261729186
95Saints51%@NE0282119207
93Giants6%vsATL563222217
90Titans6%vsIND532526247
87Dolphins20%@LV0221825166
85Browns81%vsCHI58287298
8249ers90%vsGB5201910226
81Texans1%vsCAR5181524145
81Washington83%@BUF015262875
69Ravens77%@DET010222269
67Jets1%@DEN016430125
66Cowboys4%vsPHI5111312196
64Colts43%@TEN072317116
63Chiefs61%vsLAC522013176
62Seahawks12%@MIN014142086
55Rams98%vsTB5296186
53Falcons1%@NYG041218136
47Bears29%@CLE0241985
47Eagles5%@DAL0257564
45Jaguars2%vsARI59101425
44Vikings18%vsSEA51231545
41Bucs97%@LAR0215456
36Packers28%@SF0583146
32Lions0%vsBAL5111834
25Chargers23%@KC0132613

max score with home-field five-point bonus but without projection bonus is 133
median score – 75

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (Thursday)

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Tyrod Taylor was looking like an MVP candidate before suffering a hamstring injury last week. Enter rookie quarterback Davis Mills.

Brandin Cooks is the Texans only weapon that doesn’t play running back and has proven to be quarterback proof on multiple teams. Mills targeted him on nine of his 18 attempts in relief of Tyrod.

Brian Burns, Haason Reddick and Morgan Fox have been generating tons of pressure for a Panthers defense that leads the NFL in pressure percentage at 48.6%!

Carolina has limited two very limited offenses to just 21 points to start the season in Zach Wilson’s New York Jets (14 points) and Jameis Winston’s New Orleans Saints (7 points).

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins

Embed from Getty Images
The Raiders defense ranks fifth in the NFL in pressures per opponent quarterback dropbacks at 28.4%. Maxx Crosby has been wreaking havoc in the pocket with 12 pressures and eight knockdowns!

Miami just got shut out by Buffalo and are likely to start Jacoby Brissett at QB as Tua is dealing with bruised ribs. Miami’s offensive line has allowed eight sacks.

Way Too Early Week 4 Rankings

For now, we are looking at just DVOA data from Football Outsiders and pressures allowed. We are adding in the five-point bonus for home teams as well.

max score for next week is currently 101
median score is currently 54

  1. Dolphins vs IND – 78
  2. Bills vs HOU – 73
  3. Bengals vs JAX – 73
  4. Texans at BUF – 72
  5. Washington at ATL – 69
  6. Titans at NYJ – 64
  7. Saints vs NYG – 63
  8. Jaguars at CIN – 63
  9. Chargers vs LV – 61
  10. Bucs at NE – 61

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About Keith Lott

I have one goal, to help you win your league. It does not matter if you are a fantasy rookie or a veteran. Everyone has questions, and I have opinions. Lot(t)s of them!

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  1. Pingback: 2021 NFL DFS Week 3 FanDuel Picks - Fantasy Six Pack

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