2021 MiLB Prospect Notes 7-29-21

by Mike Schneider
2021 MiLB Prospect Notesv7-29-21r

Welcome to the 7-29-21 edition of our 2021 MiLB Prospect Notes.

In this week's article, we will look at how players that were promoted during the season have been performing at the next level.  In 2018 I saw Ryan McKenna play and dominate for two months at High A in the Carolina League.  He was promoted to AA and in a year and a half never stood out.

Some prospects get promoted and immediately find success at their new level.  It is very difficult to forecast how a prospect is going to perform. Tylor Megill has found instant success in the majors, while Jarrod Kelenic is having a difficult time. Kelenic was a top five prospect while Megill was relatively unknown.

2021 MiLB Prospect Notes 7-29-21

Prospects Who Have Been Promoted

Hitting Prospects Promoted to the Majors

Bobby Bradley15411.34.318.814119
Brandon Marsh320.29.286.59367
Cal Raleigh291.25.200.50441
Edward Olivares
Gavin Sheets
Jake Burger421.27.333.807122
Jared Oliva410.33.244.48127
Jarred Kelenic1312.27.189.3638
Jarren Duran281.20.250.52264
Jesus Sanchez893.21.315.748104
Taylor Walls 1311.49.315.64387
Vidal Brujan260.00.077.154-63
Wander Franco107333%0.2710.63577

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The most productive prospect here has been Cleveland's Bobby Bradley. He is a three outcome hitter. The expectations for Jarred Kelenic (Mariners) and Wander Franco (Rays) were massive and they will likely become good players but it may not be this year.

Gavin Sheets have been impressive recently but may lose playing time with Eloy Jimenez back and Luis Robert returning soon to the White Sox. Brandon Marsh (Angels), Cal Raleigh (Mariners), and Jarren Duran (Boston) are just getting started.

Pitching Prospects Promoted to the Majors

Alek Manoah40.12.904.241.0722.00%13.70%
Daniel Lynch167.883.531.758.10%11.50%
Jackson Kowar518.008.553.20-9.70%5.10%
Josiah Gray86.758.281.5022.90%21.20%
Logan Gilbert56.23.812.941.0423.20%12.80%
Matt Manning336.004.881.424.10%7.00%
Tucker Davidson203.604.501.1512.00%12.50%

Logan Gilbert (Mariners) and Alek Manoah (Blue jays) have been the standouts here. Tucker Davidson was impressive but he is out for an extended period with an elbow injury for the Braves.

The Royals pitchers, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar were disappointing as major league hitters took advantage of their lack of a third pitch.

Hitting Prospects Promoted to AAA

Bobby Witt Jr.302.00 .367 .967153
Estevan Florial1998.45.318.72692
Heliot Ramos1901.2 .421 .50480
Hoy Jun Park223101.0.4751.042177
Johan Mieses 984.48.367.873128
Jose Barrero1055.43.385.890132
Jose Miranda1138.61 .3981.052172
Nick Pratto272.83 .4071.044170
Nolan Gorman964.30 .302 .72489
Oscar Gonzalez631.20 .317.69084

The Twin Jose Miranda and the Reds Jose Barrero mashed in AA and has not missed a beat in AAA.

Hoy Jun Park is a prospect who the Yankees called up to AAA early in the year and he has played much better in 2021 than his previous performance.  He was traded to the Pirates this week which should give him a much better major league opportunity than he would have gotten with the Yankees.

Nolan Gorman (Cardinals) has cut down on his strikeouts this year and that has continued in AAA.

The Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto were recently called up and have gotten off to nice starts.

Pitching Prospects Promoted to AAA

Edward Cabrera8.
Ethan Small14.21.234.401.43-4.92%8.20%
Glenn Otto10.14.352.211.6518.37%15.76%
Josh Winder17.14.675.160.9817.91%16.81%
Kevin Smith216.425.231.7115.15%13.74%
Kyle Bradish40.25.753.741.7515.71%11.85%
Luis Gil30.15.645.911.4810.95%12.35%
Matt Frisbee497.717.591.8010.55%12.36%
Reiver Sanmartin34.13.932.911.1719.15%14.86%
Ryan Rolison12.14.383.521.1422.64%9.30%
Shane Baz231.963.631.0027.17%16.94%

The Rays Shane Baz went from questionable command to excelling in AA and has pitched well in five AAA starts before participating in the Olympics.

Most of the rest of the pitchers in this group have struggled with consistency in AAA.  Early in the Matt Frisbee (Giants) was one of the biggest surprises with a dominant start in AA, earning a quick promotion with a .112 batting average against. However, he has been hit hard in AAA with a .330 batting average against.

Hitting Prospects Promoted to AA

Alec Burleson26113.28 .330.817117
Austin Shenton371.57 .378.894141
Brett Baty451.27 .311.68689
Bryson Stott1795.39.330.764105
Garrett Mitchell731.47 .301.57868
Julio Rodriguez613.60 .410.910146
Kyle Stowers1257.46 .408.993166
Chase Strumpf1694.59.302.60977
Oswald Peraza1765.26.347.822122
Julio Rodriguez613.60.410.910146
Joe Perez971.28.268.54950
Miguel Vargas1558.53.355.847127
Dillon Dingler1183.17.271.63069
Spencer Torkelson1359.64.341.868127
Korey Lee1288.92.367.928145
Malcom Nunez1002.48 .290.57160
Will Wilson812-21 .272.59663

The AA level is the upper minors and it is a big step for many prospects.  This large group has been a mixed bag.

Alec Burleson (Cardinals), Korey Lee (Astros), and Kyle Stowers (Orioles) have excelled.

Julio Rodriguez (Mariners), Spencer Torkelson (Tigers), Oswald Peraza (Yankees), and Miguel Vargas (Dodgers) have had a smooth transition to AA.

The move to the upper minors has been more difficult for Dillon Dingler (Tigers), Joe Perez (Astros), Chase Strumpf (Cubs), Malcom Nunez (Cardinals), and Will Wilson (Giants).

Pitching Prospects Promoted to AA

Angel ZerpaAA30.17.415.101.7512.23%12.98%
Brandon WilliamsonAA246.755.151.6718.42%15.40%
Bryce JarvisAA22.25.166.491.28 13.54%9.39%
Cade CavalliAA29.
Cole RagansAA66.005.491.6714.29%11.67%
Graham AshcraftAA341.852.370.8519.2%13.32%
Grayson RodriguezAA41.12.833.230.8732.10%19.30%
Hayden WesneskiAA29.27.285.671.6911.85%10.37%
Ken WaldichukAA373.894.711.3020.63%15.415
Logan AllenAA10.14.354.901.3519.50%15.68%
Luis MedinaAA29.23.944.221.5211.54%12.38%
Matt TaborAA453.405.151.1312.23%12.35%
Peyton BattenfieldAA36.12.723.290.8527.46%15.16%
Ronny HenriquezAA32.
Spencer StriderAA236.653.631.5216.19%18.22%
Zach McCambleyAA12.26.396.621.821.64%12.08%

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The move to AA has been especially challenging for this large group of pitching prospects. Many of these pitching prospects were dominant in High A.

When you look at the statistics for this group as a whole it really puts into perspective how impressive the Reds, Graham Ashcroft, and the Orioles, Grayson Rodriguez have been.

Hitting Prospects Promoted to High A

Anthony Volpe553.46 .4181.070180
Casey Martin1261.25 .232.43228
Curtis Mead682.33 .338.774111
Edouard Julien1094.72 .349.751111
Francisco Alvarez1759.45.331.791115
Gage Workman812.13 .247.59461
Gunnar Henderson1263.47 .365.783117
Joe Gray Jr.652.42 .338.803117
Joe Perez1098.48.4131.120194
Jordan Walker662.20 .333.825123
Jordan Westburg2064.53.393.850135
Josh Smith1213.62 .4501.056183
Lazaro Armenteros1392.15.273.54957

Three prospects have really stood out here.

Josh Smith is a 23-year-old college hitter who had a great stretch for late June and early July for Hudson Valley before going on the injured list.  He is part of the Joey Gallos deal and is reportedly headed to the Rangers.

Anthony Volpe has perhaps been the most pleasant surprise in minor league baseball.  He has only been in high A for a few weeks but has not slowed down at all.

The Astros Joe Perez got an early-season promotion to High A and was excellent earning another promotion to AA which has proven more challenging.

Pitching Prospects Promoted to  High A

Bailey Horn1113.097.882.093.64%11.32%
Blake Walston243.756.081.3325.00%15.68%
Daniel Espino96.005.411.4420.00%11.66%
Spencer Strider14.22.452.951.0229.03%22.82%
Taylor Dollard30.15.345.711.2517.05%11.23%
Xzavion Curry393.004.490.9226.45%10.80%

The Cleveland organization is one of the best at developing pitchers.  Xzavion Curry was relatively unknown heading into the year but he was great at Low A Lynchburg and has been solid in eight starts in High A.  Daniel Espino has some of the best stuff in the minors. I question if he has the command to be a front-end starter.

The Diamondbackbacks, Blake Walston just turned 20 and has made five starts in High A.  Few pitching prospects have more upside.

Comings and Goings

Prospects Changing Levels

The most exciting news this week was Curtis Terry getting the call to the majors for the first time.  The Texas Rangers drafted Terry in 2015 and it took until 2o19 to get to full-season ball.

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7-19-21AstrosPedro Leon AAAAA
7-19-21MetsJT GinnLow A High A
7-20-21OriolesRobert NeustromAAAAA
7-20-21OriolesZach WatsonHigh AAA
7-20-21OriolesHudson HaskinLow AHigh A
7-20-21MarlinsGriffin ConineHigh AAA
7-20-21MarinersZach DeloachHigh AAA
7-21-21PhilliesCasey MartinHigh ALow A
7-21-21MarlinsKyle NicolasHigh AAA
7-22-21RaysLuis PatinoAAAMLB
7-22-21RaysVidal BrujanMLBAAA
7-22-21AngelsReid DetmersAAAAA
7-22-21AngelsChris RodriguezAAAAA
7-23-21Blue JaysAlejandro KirkAAAMLB
7-23-21TwinsBrent RookerAAAMLB
7-23-21RangersCurtis TerryAAAMLB
7-23-21RaysTobias MyersAAAAA
7-24-21NationalsCarter KieboomAAAMLB
7-24-21RaysTaylor WallsMLBAAA
7-25-21RoyalsDaniel LynchAAAMLB
7-26-21White SoxJake BurgerMLBAAA
7-27-21OriolesMike BaumannAAAAA
7-27-21RaysGarrett WhitleyAAAAA
7-27-21CardinalsMasyn WinnLow AHigh A
7-27-21PhilliesErik MillerLow AHigh A
7-27-21MarlinsLewin DiazAAAMLB

Activated From the IL

7-20-21TwinsMatt WallnerHigh A
7-20-21IndiansJhonkensy NoelLow A
7-21-21White SoxJarey KelleyLow A
7-25-21YankeesJosh SmithHigh A
7-27-21DodgersLeonel ValeraHigh A

Prospects Who Went on the IL

7-23-21PadresJoshua MearsLow A
7-24-21RaysNick SchnellLow A
7-24-21PhilliesJohan RojasLow A
7-25-21OriolesAdam HallHigh A
7-28-21YankeesYoendrys GomezLow A

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