Welcome to the 2021 NFL DFS Week 12 FanDuel Thanksgiving Day Picks.
We have a three-game slate, featuring the Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Dallas Cowboys and we end the night at the Caesars Superdome with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Buffalo Bills.
The New Orleans Saints might be without both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as the running backs deal with knee injuries. This is not a Tony Jones smash spot, however, against the Buffalo Bills defense.
2021 NFL DFS Week 12 FanDuel Thanksgiving Day Picks
Click here for Wisdom of the Crowd NFL DFS projections
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - $8,200
Josh Allen has not been the quarterback we saw last year. He owns a 58.8 QBR in 2021 vs 81.7 QBR in 2020. A 107.2 quarterback rating last year vs 97.1 this season. A .190 EPA+CPOE composite vs .138 in 2021. There is just no way you can justify paying $8.8k for him on FanDuel.
Dak Prescott, possibly without Lamb and Cooper, is $600 cheaper and Derek Carr saves you $1.4k.
Since the Henry Ruggs incident, Carr has yet to throw for 300 yards with a 4:4 TD:INT ratio.
Even without his top two wide receivers, Dak Prescott is looking like the quarterback to play on Thanksgiving Day. His ownership should be lower than Allen's and the Cowboys offense allows for more stacking options with a mix of running backs, wide receiver(s) and tight end.
Also, the Cowboys have an implied total of 29.25, the highest on the slate.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions - $8,000
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Swift is only cheaper than Alvin Kamara (knee, doubtful) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee, probable). However, the Detroit Lions are more than happy to lean on him offensively with a 64% opportunity share, according to FantasyData.com. Swift also averages over four yards created per attempt. Yards created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. Only Jonathan Taylor is better amongst true RB1s.
The Chicago Bears run defense is one of the worst in the NFL and Khalil Mack is now out for the year. They have allowed a rushing touchdown in four straight weeks.
Zeke's injury could limit his production, making Tony Pollard ($5.9k) a solid value/pivot. With the lack of running back depth amongst these six teams, it will be difficult to make your lineups unique at the running back position.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears - $6,800
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Mooney is coming off one of the best games of his career seeing 16 targets against the Baltimore Ravens. He was only able to catch five passes but turned that into 121 receiving yards and a touchdown. Mooney took an Andy Dalton screen pass 60 yards for a score.
Allen Robinson's status (hamstring) is unclear at this point for Thanksgiving Day and he missed last week's action.
Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy could potentially be coaching his last game on Thursday. He is going to have to prove to ownership, and the fan base, that he is their guy. That means running up the score on their division rival on national TV, even with Dalton and not Fields under center.
According to DVOA, Detroit has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
The obvious plays here are Stefon Diggs ($8.3k) and Michael Gallup ($6.5k). It will be interesting to see how people mix and match at the wide receiver position and if they decide to put one in the FLEX spot.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys - $6,000
Schultz can save you $1.3k if you want to fade Darren Waller ($7.3k). He hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 4 but is in line to be one of Dak's top targets on Thursday by default.
He has gone over 50 yards four times since Week 4, including two games with 79 yards. When peppered with targets, Schultz has a very real chance at catching one in the end zone.
At just $100 cheaper than T.J. Hockenson, I feel Schultz could be one of the lower rostered tight ends as people might even try and save more cash here and grab Dawson Knox ($5,9k) or punt the position and pray for a touchdown.
Check out Preston's Twitter thread on some DFS strategies to avoid chalk.
The Thanksgiving DFS slate is one of life’s greatest gifts.
But it’s also a whole other animal when it comes to chalk.
Let’s take a dive into some strategies and methods to differentiate your teams from the field ⬇️
— Preston (@FF_Engineer_) November 24, 2021
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