2021 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2021-22 NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend DraftKings Picks

Welcome to the 2021 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings Picks article. In this very special episode, Urban loses his job and has to face his fears, including narcissism and other emotional demons....

Just kidding. Well, maybe not. Urban Meyer did lose his job and will have to face the shame of being the only first-year coach in the last 20 years to be fired before the end of the season. But that's not what makes this special. What makes this special first off is we don't usually have Saturday slates, so there is that.

Secondly, the 2021 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings picks will give you the F6P NFL DFS reader something you haven't been privy to this season...me!

Don't worry. You're not getting some green rookie. I have plenty of experience doing DFS articles for not just football, but doing DFS golf articles here at F6P. My guess is you might also be aware of me and my sparkling record from my F6P SNF prop picks!

But let's focus on the Saturday games between CLE at LVR and NE at IND. With only two games on this slate, the options are obviously limited. Therefore, what I will be doing is going through each position and I will give you a "cash game" (i.e. 50/50s and double-ups) option and a "GPP option" (i.e. large field contests that usually award less than 25% of the entries). I would not suggest starting every one of my GPP options below even in a GPP contest, but I'd would definitely sprinkle a few of them into your GPP lineup.

To quote one of our other F6P writers--"Now enough of the preamble, let's dive deep into this 2021 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings picks.

2021 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings Picks

Click here for Wisdom of the Crowd NFL DFS projections


Cash Option: Mac Jones, New England Patriots $5,400

To be honest with you, I don't really like any of the quarterback options on Saturday. But when making my cash lineups, I like to choose those options that have the highest floor. Jones does not have a high ceiling, but his floor is unquestionably the highest of the four starting options.

Jones has only one interception over his last four games while shinier options like Derek Carr and Carson Wentz each have twice that amount. Also, unlike those two quarterbacks, Jones will be facing a defense that is in the bottom half of the league in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. And much of that is TD driven, as the Colts have allowed quarterbacks to pass for two touchdowns a game, the second-highest average in the league this season.

Also noteworthy is that the Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the red zone. New England is middle of the pack for drives that end up in the red zone, so I have a feeling that Jones will see a few more opportunities than usual. Throw in the savings of using Jones and he's the best pick of a poor lot.

GPP Option: Case Keenum, Cleveland Browns $4800

Baker Mayfield is on the reserve/Covid-19 list for Saturday and will not play. Enter Case Keenum.

[Editors Note: Since Mark submitted, Case Keenum has entered Covid-19 protocols, so insert Nick Mullens if Keenum is out]

I can promise you that Keenum will have the lowest ownership percentage of the four starting quarterbacks, making him a potentially high leverage play. But is he worth it?

Well, one thing Keenum will have this weekend that he did not have earlier in the year is Nick Chubb by his side. We'll discuss Chubb more later, but the presence of Chubb should keep the Raiders defense honest. Perhaps the Raiders defense has been a little too earnest this year. They have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, making this a pretty attractive match-up for Keenum.

Folks love to bash Keenum, but he's better than people realize. He started 31 games for Denver and Minnesota in 2017 and 2018 and tossed 40 TDs those two seasons along with running in another three scores. I wouldn't make him my franchise cornerstone, but you could do a lot worse and plenty of teams have.

I discussed above how the Colts had the second-worst rate of allowing two touchdown passes a game. The Raiders are not far behind them, having allowed 1.8 touchdown passes a game. I think we can expect Keenum to pass for a pair of TDs in this game, which would certainly help lead to him being a profitable play.

Running Backs

Cash Option: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns $7,800

No one has allowed fewer rushing TDs per game than the Patriots, thereby making Jonathan Taylor a big of a risky play at $9200. Chubb is by far my favorite cash game play this weekend. The Raiders are by far the easiest rushing match-up of Saturday having allowed just under 30 PPR fantasy points to opposing RBs per game. That is third-worst in the league.

And last time I checked Chubb was pretty good, even against tougher matchups. In his ten games this season, Chubb has over 1,000 total yards and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He has broken the century mark in four of those games and has six touchdowns in those ten games as well.

Need another reason? I give you one courtesy of our friends over at PFF:

Lock him in.

GPP Option: D'Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns $4,800

Kareem Hunt is out this week, meaning Johnson will be the other Cleveland back on the field. I like Johnson for many of the same reasons I like Chubb. Great match-up and Johnson is averaging nearly 5.3 YPC.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Browns run the ball 30 times or more on Saturday. Johnson should see double-digit carries and could be a sneaky pick for a TD or two.

Wide Receiver

I'm not sure there really is an obvious cash option at WR this week. Maybe Hunter Renfrow who has 33 targets over his last three games? Either way, here are two other options at WR I like for Saturday. You can decide if they fit your game style/lineup.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts $5,900

Pittman is often heavily targeted. And then he's not. He's had four games of double-digit targets. But he's also had five games where he's failed to see even half a dozen targets. He just doesn't have the safe floor that I'd want from a cash-game pick. Throw in a touch-matchup against the Patriots, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs, and the warning indicator seems to be lit.

But two reasons I like Pittman this week. First off, we know Bill Belichick loves to take away a team's primary weapon. That is Jonathan Taylor. If Taylor gets minimized, that should leave the opportunity open for Pittman, who has shown some chemistry with Wentz this year.

Secondly, I expect Pittman to be shadowed by New England's J.C. Jackson. Jackson is no slouch and dare I say he is one of the best corners in the AFC? However, at 6’4”, 223 pounds, Pittman has an obvious size advantage over the smaller 6’1”, 198-pound Jackson. Between Pittman's strong hands, his physicality (have you seen the way he blocks? Might be the best in his WR class!), and the likelihood of him winning jump balls again Jackson, I think Pittman can be a weapon this weekend.

Watch what he does here, despite the DB completely blanketing him:

And imagine if he's open? Of those that have run 200 routes or more, Pittman has the highest rate versus single man coverage. It's even better than Justin Jefferson or Mike Evans, who are both two pretty good WRs this year in their own right. I saw a message posted on social media recently where the poster said playing Pittman this week makes him sick to his stomach. He must be unknowingly suffering from indigestion, because I would happily play Pittman on Saturday.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns $4,500

I swear I am not a Cleveland fan. And we only have four teams to choose from on Saturday,  but I promise this will be the last Browns player I mention!

Furthermore, if I didn't mention DPJ as an option, it would be grounds for malpractice. The "other WR who often goes by three letters", yes the one that used to play for the Giants, is gone. That same player's former LSU teammate, Jarvis Landry, is also out this weekend due to Covid protocols. What that means is that DPJ is suddenly the de facto #1 WR for the Browns.

DPJ is coming off a strong game against the Ravens last week, having hauled in five of seven targets for 90 receiving yards. He now has five or more catches in each of his last three games and that was before being Cleveland's top receiving option.

Tight End

Cash Option: Hunter Henry, New England $4200

Of the top four options listed at TE on DraftKings, Henry is the only one we can say with confidence that he should play on Saturday. But even if that were not the case, I'd still like Henry this weekend.

Okay, in the spirit of full disclosure, I will admit I have Henry on half of my fantasy teams this year. And one of those is a team that is absolutely crushing the league this year (thank you Jonathan Taylor and Josh Allen!), but he is behind Travis Kelce on that team. But that doesn't diminish what Henry has done this season.

He is averaging nine DKFP per game, which is one of the higher averages in the league. And remember, that includes the "wind game" against Buffalo when New England attempted all of three passes. He also is tied for the second-most receiving TDs amongst tight ends this season.

Throw in the fact that the Colts are allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends in the league this year and Henry is an easy play.

GPP Option: Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis $2400

Finding a viable healthy option besides Henry was difficult. But if we turn the barrel over and scrape out what is clinging to the bottom, we find an interesting option in Alie-Cox. And yes, he does have that "bottom-of-the-barrel" stink to him. In the Colts last six games, he has all of four catches combined for all of 42 yards.

There's a reason he's this cheap. But that is one reason we like him this week. We can spend the absolute minimum on him and even if he sees just one catch, he'll likely outproduce 70% of the names above him. And his price is low is because his floor is low. But we are not selecting him for the floor, we are selecting him for his ceiling.

It was only six weeks ago that Cox saw his second week of double-digit fantasy points, having scored his fourth TD of the year. Just a few weeks before that he put up nearly 20 DK points when he scored twice against the Dolphins.

Bottom line is that the upside is there. If the Raider TEs are not healthy and you don't want to play Hunter Henry, I strongly recommend taking a gamble on Alie-Cox.

Good luck with you Saturday entries!

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