2021 NFL Draft Prop Bets Picks

by Kyle Williams
2021 NFL Draft prop bets

Welcome to the 2021 NFL Draft Prop Bets Picks article.

Every year the NFL Draft rolls around with a lot of hype. Teams are in the midst of building their future. It will rise, fall and unfold right in front of your eyes and their eyes. Young men take the stage and begin new phases in their lives. A beautiful time of year for everyone, truly.

With the expansion of gambling and the industry booming, there's truly no better time for you to get in on the fun. Wagering money is one of the most exciting, adrenaline-rushing things you can do. Even just a dollar can elevate the excitement!

It's addicting and betting on what your team may or may not do is another exciting thing. You can cheer on your bet and your team's future all at once. It's a true passion of mine.

But enough talk, let's dive into this article, and hopefully, I can help you win some money.

2021 NFL Draft Prop Bets Picks

Click here for more 2021 NFL Draft content
Embed from Getty Images

Over/Under 4.5 CB's taken in Round 1

My Bet: The Under +120 (via BetOnline)

If you follow all the mock draft experts, you can how quickly things change. One minute there are five corners drafted, the next minute there are only three, and the next minute they are back to five. Things change with the breeze of the air.

In CBS's most recent article, they mocked five corners going in the first round of the draft. Here are the names of those four players.

In a mock draft that I've done for Fantasy Six Pack, I mocked five corners going in the first round as well. But I'm no draft expert, and when you bet, you must think about other angles at play. With this one, the reason I like the under is that names like Greg Newsom and Asaunte Samuel Jr. have both just recently come in mocks.

I'm not a fan of chasing steam when it comes to betting. Rumors are your worst enemy and sway the market. However, this opens up value for you. If you break down and lock what teams really need corners that have a first-round pick.

  • Titans
  • Cowboys
  • Bears
  • Raiders
  • Cardinals
  • Lions
  • Jets

I can tell you for certain that the Jets and Lions won't be selecting corners. Not with picks two and seven at the very least. I'm also not certain what the Raiders are planning considering they have been rumored to draft a WR, QB, or DE. The teams that make sense truly are just the Bears, Titans, and Cowboys to me.

However, the Titans just moved on from Corey Davis at WR and lost Jonnu Smith in free agency. They are left with basically just AJ Brown. Getting a WR for them makes more sense.

I have only three corners graded as first-round selections, so fading the noise and giving me +120 value is just too much for me to pass on. Give me under 4.5 corners selected in the first round of the NFL draft.

Over/Under 18.5 Offensive Players Selected In Round 1

My Bet: The Under +100 (via BetOnline)

I like this bet the most out of any on the list. It's the one I'm feeling the most secure about for sure. In the past four months, I've been collecting data and running mock drafts. In every one of those, I've never had more than 18 offensive players selected.

Take a look at how the first few picks are unfolding. This is a presumed look at the top-10.

All of these guys are projected to go within the top-18 picks of the draft, that's a total of 13 of the first 18 picks being offensive prospects. But it's not how you start, it's how you finish. Most experts have the back end being stuffed with offensive players. After pick 19 of the draft, most mockers have only two to five offensive players drafted and even that's in question.

Fringe guys like Najee Harris, Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Samuel Cosmi, and Travis Etienne have all been recently mocked in the first round of the draft but I simply can't see it. The running backs are going to be a big deciding factor in this equation.

The only two teams that make sense to draft a runner are the Jaguars and Steelers. People seem to think the Steelers will select Najee Harris but that's a new thing. However, the Jaguars have too many issues and need for them to be drafting an RB at pick 23.

The other hinge picks that may affect this bet is whether or not teams like the Titans, Colts, Packers, and Ravens decide to select receivers. In my most recent mock as well as CBS's recent mock, we each have the Titans and Colts selecting WR.

I don't believe the Packers will. Last year told the tail as they passed on a guy like Justin Jefferson to draft the future. With Rodgers getting older and the defense another step slower, I believe they will sure up the linebacking core.

Last, but certainly not least, there are truly only about 21ish players that are worth a first-round ground. The room for error there is very small leaving you with a perfect bet of over-under 18.5 offensive players in the first round.

First Defensive Player Taken Odds

My Bet: Jaycee Horn +375 (via BookMaker.Eu)

This draft isn't like 2020, there is no Chase Young. No defensive standout that everyone views as the next elite-level guy or generational prospect. However, that opens up major value for a prop bet just like this one.

The rumors as of Monday, teams are looking to move up in the draft to get a chance to select Horn. Another report also has the Cowboys pegged as the landing spot for Patrick Surtain. They select pick 10 in this year's draft.

That means a team like the Broncos, Panthers, Lions, or Dolphins would likely have to select Horn. The one thing that makes me think one will or something drastic will happen is the rumors of the Eagles trading up for Horn. Check the tweet below.

With Horn being the best corner in the class in my eyes and all the rumors circulating around his name, I could see someone taking Horn as the first corner off of the board.

The Chargers Will Select Either Offense or Defense In Round 1

My Bet: Offensive Player -200 (via BookMaker.Eu)

The name of the game is to protect your young quarterback. Don't do what the Colts did to Andrew Luck for all those years. Or what the Skins did to Robert Griffin III. They ran their star QB's into the ground by not protecting them along the offensive line.

This is what the Chargers have to have in their minds regarding their stud young QB Justin Herbert. With 18 or more offensive players being selected in the first round, nearly every mock has the Chargers selected someone at the offensive position.

Guys like Rashawn Slater have been notoriously mocked to the Chargers at the 13th pick. But it's not just the offensive line they may select. I can see them grabbing another WR to pair with Keenan Allen. Or on the odd chance of a Kyle Pitts slip in the draft, the Chargers could take advantage of that to replace Hunter Henry.

The offensive line is a must for the Chargers at their pick. With the belief that both top corners will be off the board, they likely have the sweats for an offensive player whether it's a WR or OL.

Over/Under: Jaylen Waddle Draft Position: 11th pick

My Bet: The Over +109 (via Heritagesports.Eu)

Seems too easy, right? Breaking down the first six picks you can see it will likely go something like this.

  • Trevor Lawrence
  • Zach Wilson
  • Mac Jones
  • Kyle Pitts
  • Ja'Marr Chase
  • Penei Sewell

That's already half the guys off the board and we are still leaving room for guys like Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Rashawn Slater, Jaycee Horn, Micah Parsons, and Patrick Surtain. Guys like Horn and Surtain are projected to be top-11 draft picks as well as nearly all the guys listed.

In almost every mock draft Waddle is listed outside of the top-11. In my most recent mock, I have Waddle being selected 12th by the Eagles but that's a more recent thing. The love for Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith has faded in recent weeks.

For the past few months, Smith was projected over Waddle but not now. Doesn't make much sense to me.

Waddle isn't even a top-2 receiver in his class. The smoke around him being drafted below 11th makes no sense. The only teams interested in WR's that draft in the top-11 picks are the Dolphins, Bengals, and Giants. The Dolphins likely will draft another OL, the Bengals are selecting Chase, and the Giants need more help along the line as well.

With the four of the top 10 picks likely to be QB's, two of the top 10 likely to be Smtih and Chase, and two of the top 11 likely to be CB's, it makes no sense for Waddle to be drafted outside of the top-11.

Over/Under 6.5 Draft Position For Trey Lance

My Bet: The Over +115 (via Sportsbetting.ag)

There has been so much smoke around the top end of the draft. Mainly with the 49ers. Are they taking Jones? Fields? Lance? Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the 49ers have zeroed in on either Jones or Lance.

If you read between the lines and listen, the only thing that's stayed true the whole entire way is the fact that Mac Jones is the guy. I think this a 50/50 type bet between Jones and Lance. With odds of +110, I only need to win this bet a near 47% of the time which gives me a 3% edge on this pick.

I don't fear teams like the Bengals or Falcons drafting a QB because they are either cap committed or QB committed already. Give me Lance to hit over his current 6.5 draft position.

Click here for more 2021 NFL Draft content

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

F6P Badges Banner

Follow us on social media


A Six Pack of Fantasy Sports

Copyright © 2024 Fantasy Six Pack.