2021 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2021 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article.

The NFL season is finally here! With all the games kicking off this weekend it is the perfect time to put your fantasy knowledge to work for you.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 1 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Dalvin Cook - 0.5 rushing touchdowns - 80 points - over

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Dalvin Cook scored a rushing touchdown in 11 out of 14 games in 2020. He hit the exact same number, with 11 out of 14 games in 2019 too. Talk about consistency.

Moreover, he had 16 rushing touchdowns in 14 games last year. He is the focal point of this offense, and they especially look to get him involved around the goal line.

Add in the Bengals were the fourth-worst rush defense last year and I have no doubt Cook will feast. It’s only 80 points but it’s about as safe a bet as you’re going to find in the Week 1 slate.

Kyler Murray - 296.5 total yards - 95 points - over

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Kyler Murray had over 296 total yards in nine of his 15 full games last year. But that figure doesn’t tell the whole story.

Kyler suffered a shoulder injury in Week 11 which seemed to significantly hamper him down the stretch. He went from averaging 331 yards per game to 287. He went from averaging 29 fantasy points a week to 19.

Before the injury, he had hit 296+ yards in seven of his nine games, after the injury he did it in only two out of six.

He's had a full offseason to recover from the injury, and neither the Cardinals nor the Titans have a defense that scares me. This game could very well turn into a shootout between these two explosive offenses and I fully expect Kyler to return to his early-season form.

Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs - 24.5 completions & 7.5 receptions - 80 points & 105 points - over

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This team loves to pass, and more than anything, they love to pass to Stefon Diggs. He was third in target share last year, first in total targets, and first in receptions.

And they’ve made no off-season moves that indicate that they want to stray from that. No big-name wide receivers brought in, no running backs drafted, and not even any coachspeak about being more balanced or wanting to run more.

That being said, Stefon Diggs hit 8 or more receptions in only 9 of 16 games last year, 56% is not great.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen hit 25 or more completions in eight of 16 games last season. 50% also isn't great, but if you drop that number down just by one to 24 he did it in 12 of 16 games, 75% of the time.

But while individually these props don’t seem like anything special, when you put them together, they become powerful. In the eight games that Allen completed 25 or more passes, Diggs met his eight-reception threshold seven times. Meaning that 88% of the time that Allen hit last year Diggs did too.

With all the uncertainty that Week 1 brings every year, I love to grab a stack like this to lessen the number of things I need to be right about in order to succeed.

Tyreek Hill - 0.5 receiving touchdowns - 100 points - over

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In three seasons with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill has scored 37 total touchdowns in 43 games played. Last year alone he scored 17 touchdowns in 15 games. Even if you don’t count his multi-touchdown games, he still met this mark in 11 out of 15 games last year.

In Week 1 the Chiefs take on the Browns in Kansas City, the Browns were the 27th ranked pass defense last year. This Chiefs offense is truly unstoppable, and Hill scores way more often than he doesn't. All it takes is one play from Hill to blow the top off the defense and take it to the house.

The Unders

Saquon Barkley - 95.5 total yards - 105 points - under

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In 2019 Saquon hit 96+ total yards in seven out of 13 games, but after spending most of last year on the IR there is talk of easing him back into the offense. In fact, he was questionable to play in Week 1 at all until quite recently.

Saquon has been on my avoid list all draft season for this reason. I hate betting against talent, but I am very concerned about his explosiveness after the ACL tear last year. I believe both his number of touches and efficiency are going to be worse than we expect to start the season.

Not to mention the volume for Saquon might be even lower since it is clear that the Giants are trying to step up their passing game with the signing of Kenny Golladay and drafting Kadarius Toney in the first round.

And while Devontae Booker might not seem like much of a threat but he is a competent enough backup that they aren't going to force Saquon to take on more than he can handle.

Finally, it's not like the matchup is anything to take advantage of either, they are going up against an underrated Broncos defense, so overall this under looks secure in Week 1.

David Montgomery - 0.5 total touchdowns - 110 points - under

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It was a tale of two halves for David Montgomery. Through the first nine weeks of the 2020 season, Montgomery had scored just two total touchdowns. However, he caught fire late in the season scoring eight times in the last six games.

The problem is that those last six games just happened to be against six of the league’s worst run defenses (Packer x2, Lions, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars). So, you will forgive me if I don’t believe that this is the new normal for Montgomery

Furthermore, they play the LA Rams, a top-five run defense last year who project to do more of the same this season. The Rams shut down Montgomery last season in a game where he only managed 48 yards on 14 carries and no touchdowns.

Anything can happen with touchdown props, but 110 points for this is stealing.

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