Betting

2021 NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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My streak is alive again after recommending both Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth last week. So it didn’t happen until late in the game. All counts the same! Just remember that when (notice I didn’t say “if”) you decide to go with my  2021 NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football prop bets.

I feel pretty good about this game, but something admittedly feels “off” about this game. Maybe it is because it is Thanksgiving week. But it’s as if folks are generally avoiding it. There has been very little line movement or even discussion about this game, which seems kind of strange for a primetime game.

The Ravens are only 3.5 favorites, meaning this game would be a near pick ’em on a neutral field. Does that seem right to you? The Ravens are one-and-a-half games ahead of Cleveland in the division, but doesn’t it feel like these teams are farther apart? The Ravens squeaked by Chicago last week, but recall that Lamar Jackson didn’t play last week. Yes, the Ravens struggle disproportionally more with Cleveland than any other team. But I feel like this game could become a laugher.

While Cleveland was once thought to be one of the better offenses this year, it has fizzled lately scoring 17 points or less in six of their last eight games. However, one thing they can do is run the ball. The Ravens are second to last in yards allowed after contact per carry. And that could be huge given the likely glacial pace of this game. The Browns are the 28th slowest paced team and the Ravens are 26th. Should this game become a shoot-out, however, that will definitely favor the Ravens.

But I got this feeling that ineptitude of the Browns passing game is going to be an issue.  Baker Mayfield has suffered dramatic declines in completion rate (-7%) and yards per attempt (-1.15) in his last four games with Landry as opposed to his previous four games without. Maybe it wasn’t Odell after all?  Rashard Higgins has a single game of more than 30 yards this season and Donovan Peoples-Jones is banged up. I’ll be fading the Cleveland passing game.

Meanwhile, the cliff note version is that the Ravens are getting healthier. Outside of some Chubb action, I’m going heavy Baltimore. And that brings us to our first bet this week, which is a DK special.

2021 NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Nick Chubb + Lamar Jackson OVER 154.5 Combined Rushing Yards (-110)

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I absolutely love this bet and may hit it again harder after hitting it early in the week. Chubb is averaging over 106 rushing yards per game. Jackson is averaging over 71 rushing yards per game. We could leave it right there, but let’s dive into this a little more.

We already discussed the likelihood of Chubb having a decent game against Baltimore. The savvy gambler realizes that Cleveland has allowed only 78 rushing yards total to QBs this year. However, the savier gambler realizes that outside of keeping Kyler Murray from burning them on the ground, the Browns really haven’t faced any scrambling quarterbacks. And you know why Murray did next to nothing on the ground against them? He was busy tossing four touchdowns against them.

Furthermore, I remind everyone about the last time the Browns and the Ravens squared off. That was the infamous Lamar being in the locker room but returning to win the game in the waning moments to help the Ravens win. And oh yeah, he had 124 rushing yards in that game. This bet seems like a trap. It’s not.

And speaking of Lamar…

Lamar Jackson 1.5 Passing Touchdowns OVER (-105)
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Let’s break this down systematically. We start with how well Cleveland has done at keeping QBs under this mark. In eleven games, the Browns have allowed opposing signal-callers to throw for 21 scores, just an eyelash under two scores per game. But don’t forget, that includes the Detroit game against the golden arm of Tim Boyle. Amazingly, Boyle failed to pass for a TD, which means if we discount that game, it’s 21 passing TDs in ten games, or a little over a pair of passing TDs a game.

But what about Jackson himself? He has 14 touchdowns in ten games, but him just slightly under our mark. However, in five games against Cleveland, he has ten TDs, or an average of two touchdowns a game. Boom. Especially after missing last week, I think Jackson is desperate to impress. He should get the Ravens offense going in the right direction. I think three or higher might be a bit too optimistic, but two passing TDs is extremely reasonable.

I’m confident in at least one of the two bets above hitting. Therefore, let’s go with one last bet that is super aggressive.  I might be mistaken, but I think the below might be the second-highest odds bet I’ve ever suggested in this space.

Mark Andrews to Score 1st/Baltimore to Win (+1200)

If you want something just a little more conservative, maybe go with Rashod Bateman or Mark Andrews to score anytime. Because the hardest part of this bet is that Mark Andrews is the first to score. He’s not even the likeliest to score period, let alone first. Marquise Brown has two more touchdowns than Andrews as well as more targets (Brown has 82 to Andrews’ 79).

However, Andrews has by far the most looks inside the Red Zone (i.e. inside the Browns 20-yard line), leading the team with a dozen versus Brown’s seven. Also, Andrews has been making some sensational catches this year, including one last week:

Also, Andrews has scored first in a game this year (back on October 11th against the Colts), giving us about a ten percent chance based on past performance. Furthermore, the Ravens won that game giving us a very high correlation between the Ravens winning and Andrews scoring first. It is obviously a very limited sample size, so take it with a grain of salt.

However, only two teams have allowed more TE touchdowns than Cleveland, so I like Andrews’ chances to score. And as we just said, he has scored first, so we know it’s definitely viable. At +1200, that’s just big enough that I’m willing to take that shot.


Good luck with your Week 12 Sunday Night football props and enjoy the game!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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