Welcome to 2021 NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets!
We're here! Week 11 is behind us and good food is ahead of us! We've got a lot going on in our props this time around, covering all three Thanksgiving Day games!
So let's quickly recap last week before a brief overview of each of Thursday's games. Atlanta vs New England was rough on the eyes and it was rough on props. Hunter Henry missed his over by four yards, and Jakobi Meyers missed his over by one catch. But it is what it is. Kyle Pitts was held in check by the Patriots defense like I thought, so I'm not a complete idiot. I know some things I guess.
This week we have three games to choose from and watch on Thursday! So while you get to eat your turkey and hang out with family, why not add a little more fun into the mix by putting in some wagers?
First up is Chicago at Detriot. Andy Dalton vs Tim Boyle. Watch out for the fireworks people. Draftkings Sportsbook line for this game is 41.5 O/U with Chicago favored by 3. Both of these NFC North teams lost by three points each to AFC North teams in Week 11.
Despite the lack of fanfare for this game, I think it has some interesting pieces, be it the Chicago passing game or the D'Andre Swift. I think Chicago wins this but it honestly could go either way. The Lions seem to keep things relatively close most weeks.
Then the Cowboys host the Raiders for our afternoon game. Here we have our highest implied point total of the day with an over/under of 51 and Dallas favored by 7.5 points. Vegas has lost themselves in recent weeks but the Cowboys haven't been much better either.
Dallas has lost two of their top playmakers, which of course plays a huge role in their loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. However, they still have good running backs, and the Raiders' defense is much weaker against the run than the pass.
Vegas desperately needs either Bryan Edwards or DeSean Jackson to fill the hole Henry Ruggs left. Their offense just has not been the same without him. Dallas' defense isn't shutting people down, but they're still a solid unit capable of creating turnovers. I like Dallas here, I don't think Vegas is strong enough to pull off the upset.
Lastly, the Buffalo Bills visit the New Orleans Saints. We sit in a happy medium between the first two over/unders with this one set at 45 points. Buffalo is favored by six points. The Bills have been a good all-around defense this year, and New Orleans has been top five against the run in yard per game but bottom 10 in pass yards allowed per game. That's ok because other than Josh Allen, the Bills don't run anyway.
It honestly would not surprise me if the game goes under 45 points given the defenses and the Bills' recent offensive struggles. However, I don't expect that to happen. I still think we're in for a fun end to a long day of eating, drinking and football!
2021 NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets
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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Darnell Mooney - 58.5 Rec Yards - Over
I'm following the target and rushing volume here. Mooney has had 31 targets over the past three weeks, with 16 last Sunday. If Allen Robinson sits again, which seems likely, he'll be the #1 option against the vulnerable Lions secondary. By the way, the last time he played them back in Week 4? He had five catches for 125 yards.
D'Andre Swift - 69.5 Rush Yards - Over
D'Andre Swift is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. If not in the top 5 talent-wise, he's pretty darn close. Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling two weeks ago, Swift has run for 266 yards. Chicago is in the 10 of the league, allowing opponents 122 rushing yards per game this season. If Swift continues seeing this uptick in usage, he'll get over this line fairly quickly. There's no reason for the Lions not to. Their passing game has suffered but they either tied or were close to winning their first game so something is working.
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
Dalton Schultz - Anytime Scorer
I honestly have no idea what to expect from this game with these teams. So let's play the narrative game. In Michael Gallup's first game back from injury, Schultz struggled to find work with Dallas' full array of pass catchers back. But now, Amari Cooper is out and CeeDee Lamb may miss this game, so Schultz might be needed now more than ever. He has not found the endzone since week 4, so he's due for a touchdown. It would be fitting for him to eat on Thanksgiving.
Hunter Renfrow - 5.5 Receptions - Over
If Dallas can take advantage of the Raiders defense, by air or ground, Derek Carr will be forced to throw. Renfrow has had 6 or more catches in 6 of 10 games and in three of their last four. When Dallas brings pressure (which they do 26.1% of opposing QB dropbacks), watch for Carr to look for Renfrow.
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints
Josh Allen - 32.5 Ru Yards - Over
While the Saints are good against the run, the Bills will need Allen to live up to his full potential to lift the struggling offense. He's rushed over this total in 6 of 10 games. They are 4-2 when he's rushed for 35 yards or more, 2-2 when he doesn't. That stat is kind of out there for sure, but Allen's rushing ability does give them a better chance at a win. With Allen being one of Buffalo's primary runners anyway, I think he has this one in the bag.
Dawson Knox - 34.5 Rec Yards - Over
Cole Beasley - 41.5 Rec Yards - Under
On the flip side, Knox's return has limited Cole Beasly the last couple of weeks to at best the third option in the passing game. While the Saints do give up yards through the air, so do the Colts, and we saw little usage of Beasly last week. I'm not expecting a ton of change.
Josh Allen - Most Passing Yards on Thanksgiving +230
This one comes with a little help from my friend Mark Strausberg. We can be fairly certain Allen has a higher passing ceiling than both Dalton and either of the Detriot passers. Then, we have Trevor Siemian going against Buffalo's pass defense. That's likely not going to end with a high passing total. Derek Carr hasn't been himself the last couple of weeks, and Dallas is struggling without their top two pass catchers. Josh Allen has his full assortment of weapons, so he has a high likelihood of most passing yards at the end of the day.
That's going to do it for our 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL Prop Bets! Sit down, give thanks, and enjoy the games!
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