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2021 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

A brutal turn of events on Sunday resulted in a 1-4 record on the week. This brings the total season record to 31-25. Let’s try to put that one in the rearview mirror and refocus here on a new slate in Week 12.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 12 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Tom Brady – 295.5 Passing Yards – 95 Points – Over

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After an unexpected two game losing streak to the New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were able to get their house in order against the Giants in dominant fashion. Fun fact, Brady hasn’t lost three games in a row since 2002, with the win last week that extends the streak to 288 games.

Brady has been superb for fantasy this year, he is currently number two in fantasy points, number two in yardage, and leads the league in touchdowns. 296 yards is by no means an easy bar to clear, but Brady is averaging 317.7 yards per contest this season, so it is well within his range of outcomes. And he has hit those over in six of 10 games.

The variable that really pushes this matchup over the edge though is the matchup. Brady and the Bucs will travel to Indianapolis to take on the surging Colts. This should be one of the best games of the week as two of the league’s best teams battle it out.

The Colts have been strong against the run, they are ranked number two in defensive rush DVOA according to footballer outsiders. In contrast, their pass defense has room for improvement, at just 20th in DVOA.

Tampa Bay is second in the league in neutral game script pass rate, they throw the ball 67% of the time in one possession games. Everything about this game screams pass heavy for the Bucs, and I could see Brady approaching 50 pass attempts in this game.

Let the GOAT help your lineup get started off on the right foot in Week 12.

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Joe Burrow – 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – 110 Points – Over

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Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. In this key divisional game, the Bengals are favored by 3.5 points and have a chance at the season sweep against Pittsburgh this year.

Burrow started off the season strong for fantasy purposes, he was the QB8 over the first eight weeks. But over the past three weeks he’s 9.4 points, a bye week, and 9 points. Leaving a sour taste in many managers mouths as this has also led to some down performances for Ja’Marr Chase.

Burrow has hit this over in eight of ten games so far, with the only two misses coming in his most recent down games. But in one of those games he threw for 282 yards, the touchdowns just didn’t bounce his way that day. And in the other, the Bengals dominating the Raiders 32-13. This made it so Burrow was not required to do much in order to secure this win as he handed the ball off to Mixon a season high 30 times.

Now, we can’t predict bad luck, but we can predict game script to some degree. The Steelers are a competitive team and should be able to keep this game close down the stretch. Even better, they have the 16th ranked defensive rush DVOA paired with the 26th ranked defensive pass DVOA. Meaning, it is much easier to pass against the Steelers than run.

All in all, this line is a bit reactionary, some people will be scared off of it due to Burrow’s two most recent games, but this is a small sample size and not indicative of what is to come. The extra 10 points are just the cherry on top.

Matthew Stafford – 2.5 – Passing TDs+Ints – 80 Points – Over

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Things have been a bit bumpy for the Los Angeles Rams recently. After starting the season 7-1, they have dropped their past two games by multiple scores. First to the Derrick Henry-less Tennessee Titans, and then to the San Francisco 49ers in prime time.

Losing Robert Woods was certainly an unexpected surprise that many have factored into their recent struggles. But with the addition of Odell, and given a full week for him to acclimate and for Sean McVay to get the team back on track, I’m expecting this team to come out of the bye hungry.

These touchdown plus interception props can be tough to judge. Since, unlike most props, it isn’t based on how well that player does exactly, but more so the volume the player will have. Well Stafford has volume in spades, he is ninth in the NFL in pass attempts with 362 (36.2 per game). The Rams brought him in for a reason and it shows.

He has hit this over in nine of ten games this season, the only time he didn’t was back in Week 5 against the Seahawks. He is averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per game as well as 0.8 interceptions per game, for a total of 3.2 combined.

It may only be 80 points but it’s as close to a free 80 points as you will find this week, grab this one and build in upside elsewhere in your lineup.

The Unders

Aaron Jones – 60.5 Rushing Yards – 100 Points – Under

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When Aaron Jones was first injured in Week 10 there was fear that he might be headed to the IR, or worse, even miss the remainder of the season. Now here we are two weeks later and Jones has practiced three straight games. At the moment he is still a game-time decision, but assuming he plays and is thus eligible on Thrive, then the under looks like a smash play here

Jones has hit this under in six of ten games so far this season. Although, to be fair, we should probably call it five of nine since he missed a good position in Week 10 due to the injury. So already Jones has been under this line more often than not.

The Packers take on the Los Angeles Rams this week, who rank eighth in overall defensive DVOA. They are also seventh in defensive DVOA specifically against the rush, so this is no cakewalk.

Furthermore, the Packers have a bye week following this game so it doesn’t make much sense for them to risk Jones’ health by playing him too many snaps in this game when they can give him lots of extra rest soon.

Pre-injury Jones was already in a time-share with A.J. Dillon. Dillion performed admirably in Jones’ absence, racking up 225 total yards and two touchdowns over the past two games. Dillon is a talented back, and with Jones coming in as a banged up, I’m thinking he will assume a number two role behind Dillon for this game.

There are simply too many factors working against Jones here, I’m grabbing the under with pleasure.


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About Nick Spencer

Nick Spencer is a Canadian business school student with a passion for all things football. He specializes in NFL fantasy re-draft and dynasty league formats. He loves offering draft and trade advice to anyone who will listen, so tweet @NickBSpencer with any fantasy questions.

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