2021 NFL Week 13 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

by Mark Strausberg
2021 NFL Week 14 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Sunday night brings more than just  2021 NFL Week 13 Sunday Night Football prop bets. It is also the last night of Hannukah. So I want to start by wishing all my Jewish brethren a Happy Hannukah!

But let's backtrack to the first night of Hannukah when the Ravens were taking on the Browns. Did you bet that Mark Andrews to score first and Ravens to win prop I suggested? If you did,  at +1200, you should be up quite a few shekels! Let's see if I can keep it going this week.

For this week's game, I think we are going to see some good football. Denver is going to want to slow it down and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. They already run the eighth fewest plays per game (61.6), but that has been ticking up the last few weeks (62.3). Kansas City meanwhile runs the second-most plays per game (68.7). I expect each team to try and control the pace of this game. That leads to KC running a few fewer plays and Denver running a few more. And we'll talk later on about why that becomes important.

The Chiefs meanwhile are nearly a ten-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 47 points. I do think the Chiefs win, but double digits is a little much for my taste. I think the over/under is pretty close, but this game could easily approach the 50-point range. My suggestion is to tease both down and then take the Chiefs and the Over.

Read below for what other bets I like.

2021 NFL Week 13 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Tyrann Mathieu Solo Tackles + Assists OVER 4.5 (-165)

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We start the week off with a pretty conservative bet. The reason there is any doubt in this bet is that Mathieu has fallen under this line his last two games. He also fell under once earlier in the year against Buffalo. Yet that still means he has this mark or better in 8 of 11 games, or about 88% of the time. Anytime you got an established baseline of 88%, that's pretty good!

And remember, that in week 11 Mathieu was a late addition to the injury report with a chest injury. He did suit up, but he was not playing at 100%. And we are also supported by Mathieu's strong career stats. Mathieu has a career average of right around 4.7 per game, therefore this is in no way a reach for him. Furthermore, remember what I said above Denver running a few more plays? I wouldn't be surprised if those few extra plays are the reason why this bet hits.

Finally, I know this is trite and I sound like John Madden. Yet big players come up big in big games. This is a big game. I would not be surprised if Mathieu has half a dozen or more total. Take the easy conservative bet and we'll balance it out with a more aggressive one shortly, but one more conservative bet for this week....

Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)

This bet could be found at +110 earlier in the week and hopefully, you jumped on it then. The reason for the big shift can be found from the Broncos beat writer's Tweet below:

The hype train on Williams was already chugging down the track. However, this news converted that train from an 1850s steam engine into something resembling Japan's "bullet train". I've been a passenger all season on that train, I am certainly not getting off now. I would still bet it at -125. And again, remember when I said that I expect Denver to try and slow things down by running the ball? Williams should have plenty of chances to make a house call.

Having a full load of carries will only propel his already strong stats. My favorite might be that he is tied with Joe Mixon for the lead in broken tackles this season.  He also happens to be sixth in yards-after-contact per attempt. And we haven't even discussed his ability to catch a pass and take it in for six as he did against Cleveland earlier in this year.  At -125 the value is gone, but you won't forgive yourself if you bypass this sure bet. I know I won't. And I'm hoping they post some bets on Williams to score two touchdowns because I will jump on that as well.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 Passing TDs (+140)

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We haven't talked about KC's offense much. Some of that is because I think we are all aware of the potential firepower. Or maybe because I saved the best for last? The reason doesn't matter. But I would make this bet.

The Chiefs had a bye last week and the previous week Mahomes did not have a single TD pass. That doesn't happen very often, but it gives us the chance to get Mahomes tossing three touchdowns at plus odds. It's not like Mahomes had a bad game either, so I am not concerned about the lack of TD passes. Especially because Mahomes seems to light it up against his divisional rivals. Despite the well-chronicled "struggles" of Mahomes this year, he is still averaging four TD passes per game against AFC West rivals.

At even money, this bet would be kind of "meh". With the extra 40 points? I like it!

Good luck with your Week 13 Sunday Night football props and enjoy the game!

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1 comment

NFL Betting - Week 13 - Sports Betting Rundown December 5, 2021 - 9:57 am

[…] looks at the props for the SNF game to see if there are any […]


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