2021 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2021 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

A 2-2 week, not much good or bad to say about that one. I believe the Burrow pick would’ve hit easily but they just boat raced the Steelers so quickly that there was simply no need for him to do more. No matter, on to Week 13!

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 13 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Joe Mixon - 80.5 Rushing Yards - 110 Points - Over

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Joe Mixon has been on an absolute tear over the Cincinnati Bengals past four games. During that run, he has averaged 92.3 rushing yards, 27.8 receiving yards, and two touchdowns per game. His resurgence to stardom has been what fantasy managers have long been waiting for.

The Bengals have seemingly realized Mixon’s importance to the team, as since the bye in Week 10, they have been riding him. It makes sense when you look at the team’s overall performance in relation to Mixon’s.

Before the bye, Mixon had carry totals of 10, 18, 12, 14, and 13. And the Bengals were 2-3 in that stretch with one of the losses coming against the Mike White-led New York Jets. But since the bye, he has carried the ball 30 times and 28 times, and they won both games by a combined score of 73-23. They’d be foolish to stop running it now, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

But here’s the best part, the matchup. The Bengals face the Chargers in an important divisional matchup. The Chargers, by every metric calculable, are a run funnel defense.

They allow 145.3 rushing yards per game, most in the league by a large margin. They allow the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt and third-most rushing attempts per game. According to DVOA ratings, The Chargers are the worst in the league against the run, but 11th best against the pass.

This is an absolute smash spot for Mixon, and they are just giving you an extra 10 points to take it, consider it an early Christmas present.

Keenan Allen - 70.5 Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Over

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On the other side of the ball, if Mixon continues to run like how he has been, then the Chargers may have some catching up to do through the air. The Bengals are favored by three in this game, so that is the more likely outcome.

Keenan is a rare find of complete stability in an otherwise chaotic fantasy universe. You can basically always pencil him for around ten targets, seven catches, and 80 yards. He has hit 71+ yards in eight of 11 contests this year, including five straight times since their bye week.

In contrast to the Chargers, the Bengals defense tends to be stronger versus the run, although not to the same degree. The Bengals rush defense DVOA is ninth-best in the league, whereas their pass defense sits at 19th best.

Mixon is the stronger play in this game, but there is no reason both players can’t hit their marks here. I’m grabbing both and enjoying the added correlation it brings to my lineup.

Kirk Cousins - 1.5 Passing Touchdowns - 90 Points - Over

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Kirk Cousins has been on a bit of a hot streak for fantasy purposes over the past four games. With 21.6, 17.5, 25.2, and 16.5 points he is the QB2 over the past month, QB4 in points per is a bit more accurate though. This hot streak has brought cousins up to QB9 on the year as well, not too shabby.

Cousins is currently tied for sixth in the league in passing touchdowns with 23 through 11 games. That’s an average of 2.1 per game. On top of that, he has a league-leading 0.7 INT rate. Long story short, Kirk’s been cooking.

The Vikings get the privilege of taking on the Detroit Lions this week. And while their matchup in Week 5 resulted in just a two-point victory for the Vikings, the bookmakers don’t expect more of the same in this one, as they are projected to win by 7.5 points.

There is the small concern that like Burrow last week, Cousins won’t be needed, but with Dalvin Cook out we can feel a bit more confident that the Vikings will mix in both the pass and the run.

Betting against the Lions is usually a good bet, even if it is only 90 points.

The Unders

Jalen Hurts - 0.5 - Interceptions - 125 Points - Under

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Jalen Hurts turned in his worst performance of the season against the Giants after a string of very good games. The Eagles lost 7-13, and Hurts threw for just 129 yards with three interceptions.

But I’m still going to take the under.

Jalen Hurts may be a subpar passer, he may even suck, but the Jets suck more. The Jets are 3-8 and are tied for the least amount of defensive interceptions in the league at four. That’s 0.36 picks a game. And Hurts, before this past disastrous week, had just five interceptions through 11 games. Even including this past week, he still has hit this under in seven of twelve games.

According to DVOA the Jets are 30th against the run and 31st against the pass. The Eagles have a more run-heavy as of late and seeing as Hurts is also banged up, I would expect a run-focused game plan in this one. No need to try anything risky against this opponent.

I’m guessing we see a game similar to the Eagles matchup against the Lions in Week 8. An easy win and just 14 pass attempts on the day for Hurts. That would allow this prop to hit the under quite effortlessly.

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