I enter the 2021 NFL Week 14 Sunday Night Football prop bets on a hot streak, having hit two of three bets last week. Let's see if I can keep it going this week in another divisional clash on Sunday Night.
The books are not putting a lot of confidence in the Bears as they visit Lambeau. Depending on where you look, Green Bay is typically favored between twelve and 14 points with a game total south of 45 points.
I actually like the Bears this week a little more than the books. Yes, the Green Bay defense is pretty good. But that's the issue--they are pretty good. They are not dominant. Only seven teams have allowed more TDs than the Packers and three of them are finally having their bye this week. And while Green Bay is coming off a bye themselves, they allowed 62 combined points their previous two games. I think Chicago will actually put up more of a fight than most expect.
Don't misunderstand me. I still like Green Bay to win this game. But I have this feeling we're going to see Justin Fields get Chris Collinsworth overly excited this week.
And with that early, preview, let's get into this week's bets.
2021 NFL Week 14 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
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Adams has a snap share of 81.8%. That alone could be a reason to bet on Adams scoring, but he also has a target share of over 32%, tops in the league. He also has a red-zone target share of over 26% as well. We all know he's a scoring machine, especially against the Bears and in primetime.
But many of those Chicago/Green Bay games over the year feature a very good Bears secondary. This year, not so much. And they are even worse on the road. When visiting, the Bears’ secondary has been torched to the tune of a 12:1 TD:INT ratio and 67.2% completion rate this year. The Bears have allowed 14 TDs to WRs this season. Only five teams have allowed more, and three of those have played one game than Chicago has. I'd like a little more value on this bet, but it would be overly optimistic to expect more.
Furthermore, as we know, Aaron Rodgers still owns the Bears....
Aaron Rodgers runs it to the house and lets Chicago Bears fans know
“I STILL OWN YOU. I STILL OWN YOU.” pic.twitter.com/GQHz0ONUoT
— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) October 17, 2021
With Rodgers having 57 passing TDs in 26 games against the Bears, you think we might see one to his favorite WR?
Yeah, me too.
David Montgomery Rushing Yards 63.5 OVER (-115)
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So to keep Rodgers and Adams off the field, I suspect we will see the Bears try to run the ball as often as they can. Since Montgomery returned three weeks ago, he's averaged 16 carries a game. He's averaging 4.2 YPC, so if he just hits his averages, he should hit the over. But the trends lean even further in Montgomery's direction. Monty has had 19 games where he had at least 16 carries. In those 19 games, he's averaged over 85 yards per game.
Furthermore, just half a dozen players this year have averaged more rushing yards per game than Montgomery. The Packers are giving up 102.5 rushing yards per game (eighth in the NFL) and they rank 17th in opposition yards per attempt (4.3). I think we will be sweating this one out far more than the Adams bet, but I like Monty to get to 70 yards before the Bears final drive.
Bet the OVER.
Justin Fields OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+110)
With two conservative bets suggested already, time for one a little more aggressive. I usually suggest something with even higher payouts, but this is becoming an extremely contrarian bet as the OVER/UNDER continues to move towards the UNDER and the line moves toward the Packers.
The narrative for this game is all about Rodgers and how the Packers are gonna roll right over the Bears. And the narrative is probably right. But it's a little too noisy for my tastes. We are going to see Montgomery, Allen Robinson, and Justin Fields all in the starting lineup for the first time since week 4. Don't be surprised if we see a little more from the Chicago offense this week than we have all season. And while we are talking about narrative, I like the chip that Fields has on his shoulder.
.@justnfields: “I like being the underdog. I think it just gives me an extra chip on my shoulder. I like when people doubt me, that just gives me extra motivation.”
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 8, 2021
Furthermore, in Fields' last start, he completed seven passes for 20 yards or more. Read that again. This kid has game. And now we add Robinson back into the mix? I'd keep your investment on this wager small, but it's intriguing, isn't it?
Good luck with your Week 14 Sunday Night football props and enjoy the game!
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