2021 NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2023 Fantasy Football Week 1 Recap

Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

With Jalen Hurts sitting out last week we had only three picks active, leading to a 1-2 result. This brings our season-long record to 34-29. This week I have six picks for you to help make up for that lackluster showing!

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Lamar Jackson - 274.5 Passing+Rushing Yards - 105 Points - Over

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Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense have been struggling as of late. While they currently sit at the three seed in the AFC, their offense has scored 19,16,16, and 10 in their past four games. Lamar was absent for one of those matches but he still hit this over in two of three games despite the low point totals.

In fact, he has hit this over in nine of 11 games this season, he simply racks up enough yardage regardless of how the overall team is performing. Sportsbooks have this line almost 15 yards higher than Thrive at 294.5.

He failed to hit this over two weeks ago against this same Browns team so there is risk involved here, but this isn’t a scary matchup. Ultimately, I expect Harbaugh and Lamar to scrape together a decent game plan for the Ravens to put together some sustained drives and pile up those yards for Lamar.

Tom Brady - 295.5 Passing Yards - 105 Points - Over

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Tom Brady, at 44 years old, is leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. He has 3,771 yards on the year, which is an average of 314 per game, well above this over. Now the sportsbooks have him listed at 303.5, a drop off from his average but still a good margin higher than Thrive has him.

The reason for this drop is likely due to the matchup. The Buffalo Bills are a very strong defense, currently ranked first in overall defensive DVOA, first against the pass, and sixth against the run. They did however lose an elite cornerback in Tre’Davious White due to an ACL tear on Thanksgiving.

This is not going to be a walk in the park for Brady, but he is at his best when facing tough competition, and nobody is better against the Bills than Brady. He is 32-3 against them in his career. I’m betting Brady gets the best of the Bills one more time here before he hangs them up for good (albeit a Superbowl matchup is still in the cards).

The Unders

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Patrick Mahomes - 305.5 Passing Yards - 105 Points - Under

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Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are currently sitting in the number four seed in the AFC. After starting off the season a bit rocky, going 3-4, the Chiefs seem to have righted the ship, winning five straight games.

While discussion around the Chiefs usually centers on their offense, it is actually their defense that has been carrying them as of late. What started off as one of the weakest units in the league, allowing 29 points per game in the first seven weeks, has given up just 11.2 over their past five games. Their offense in those games? Just 21 points per game.

Mahomes has hit this under in eight of 12 games this season, including five of the last six. He also averaged well under this mark at 281 passing yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders have been trending in the wrong direction, losing four of their last five games. The Chiefs should comfortably win this game, and Mahomes will not be forced to throw very often.

However, it should be noted that the one time in the past six games where this under missed was in Week 10 against this same Raiders team. That being said, I’m still betting on the probability that Mahomes doesn’t throw 50 times as he did in that game and the Chiefs coast to victory.

Nick Chubb - 90.5 Rushing Yards - 90 Points - Under

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As mentioned in Lamar’s section, the Browns played the Ravens just two weeks ago. And in that game, Chubb had just eight carries for 16 yards. Now, I am not expecting a measly 16 yards out of Chubb in two straight games but that is at least something to take into consideration.

In fact, while Baltimore isn’t a scary defense overall, just 24th in DVOA rankings, their run defense is stifling, they are currently allowing the least rushing yards per game in the league at 84.3.

This Browns team has been going through a rough stretch, they’ve won just one of their past three games (and it was a three-point win over Detroit). And in those games, the offense scored just 10 points, 10 points, and seven points.

In addition, Hunt has had a full bye week to get even healthier, leading to the likelihood that he steals some more work from Chubb.

And while Chubb is one of, if not the most talented runner in the league, between the offense troubles, the tough matchup, and what happened just two weeks ago, this line is too high for my tastes.

Derek Carr - 1.5 Passing Touchdowns - 110 Points - Under

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I touched on it briefly in the Mahomes section, but this Raiders team is an unmitigated disaster right now. Ever since they lost Henry Ruggs and Jon Gruden’s dismissal, the team has been in complete disarray.

Carr has hit this under in five of 12 games this season and is averaging 1.4 touchdowns per game. But since Week 8, he has hit this under in four of five games and is averaging a measly 0.8 touchdowns per contest.

The Chiefs’ defense has been absolutely shutting offenses down the past five weeks, and I don't see any reason that should change this week. Give me the under and the extra 10 points.

Baker Mayfield - 0.5 Interceptions - 125 Points - Under

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Baker Mayfield has been extremely banged up, that much is obvious to anyone who's seen even five minutes of a Browns’ game in the past couple of weeks. Perhaps the bye week did him so good, but it seems unlikely to magically fix all the Browns' problems.

The Browns are just 28th in pass attempts at 30 per game, which is a large contributing factor to why Baker has a mere 2400 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season.

He is averaging 0.5 interceptions per game, and he has hit this under in six of 11 games this season. He didn’t throw a pick the last time these two teams meet just two weeks ago, and I am hoping for more of the same here,

This prop is pretty close to being a toss-up, but the extra 25 points and low passing volume make it well worth the gamble.


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