2021 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2023 NFL Week 17 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets | Lions @ Cowboys

Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

An absolutely crazy week of football where only a small handful of people lived up to expectations led to a mediocre 2-3 showing. The Packers picks were the most painful as in the same game Rodgers was just seven yards from hitting his over and Jones was eight yards from his under.

Such is Fantasy Football, just a few plays being slightly different can create drastically different results. It is simultaneously the best and worst part of this game we play. But enough talk, onwards to Week 16!

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 16 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Cooper Kupp - 92.5 Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Over

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Cooper Kupp put up yet another week-winning performance against the Seahawks on Tuesday. Catching nine of 13 targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns. That is now Kupp’s fifth multi-touchdown game this year!

He is averaging 116 yards per game this season and is currently on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season yardage record of 1964 yards. Kupp has hit this over in 12 of 14 games this season, or 86% of the time. And one of the games where he failed to hit this mark he was just one yard short at 92.

And if those figures alone didn’t convince you, the Rams’ matchup this week is the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are allowing the fourth-most receiving yards in the league this year at 252.1 per game.

I could go on and on about Cooper Kupp’s dominance this year, but everybody already knows that, take the over and enjoy.

Matt Ryan - 18.5 Completions - 85 Points - Over

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Sitting at 6-8 and third place in the division, it’s no secret that this hasn’t been the season Matt Ryan and the Falcons were hoping for. However, this matchup against the Detroit Lions could be a nice get-right spot.

Then again, the Lions just knocked off the top-seeded Arizona Cardinals, so this should be a fairly competitive game, assuming Goff is able to start.

Matt Ryan is currently 11th in the league in pass attempts with 480, and ninth in completions with 324. He has hit over 18.5 completions in 13 of 14 games this season, a whopping 93% of the time.

His one miss was when he had just nine competitions against Dallas in a game where they were getting blown out by the end of the first quarter, that shouldn’t be the case in this one.

However, it should be noted that Ryan has been just barely reaching this over recently, with exactly 19 completions in four of his last five games. So this pick is not without risk.

That being said, an over is an over and Ryan has been getting the job done consistently this season, so I am more than willing to roll him out in a great matchup this week.

Ja'Marr Chase - 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns - 115 Points - Over

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Ja’Marr Chase likely cost a lot of Fantasy managers their season this past weekend. Putting up just one catch on four targets for three yards is an absolute killer in the playoffs. So I understand the hesitation to put your faith in him after that stinker, but hear me out.

Chase has hit this over in eight of 14 games this season. He has 10 touchdowns through 14 games as a rookie, and he is still averaging over seven targets per contest.

Last week, he played against the seventh-best passing defense, the Denver Broncos. This week, he gets the second-worst passing defense, the Baltimore Ravens. Last time Chase played the Ravens, he finished with eight catches on 10 targets for 201 yards and a touchdown.

This might be the riskiest pick of Week 16, but Chase’s talent, the matchup against the Ravens crumbling pass defense, and a 115-point reward are too tantalizing to pass up.

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The Unders

Kirk Cousins - 0.5 Interceptions - 125 Points - Under

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It is Week 16, so you guys know the drill by now. I tell you that the 125-point under on interceptions is a great value. We put it in our lineups. And we celebrate getting this free bingo square every week with a fistful of money.

This week is no different.

Kirk Cousins has just six interceptions through 14 games this season. An average of just 0.43 per contest. Cousins is second in the league in interception rate, with just 1.2% of his passes turning into picks. Only Aaron Rodgers has a better rate this season.

The only knock I could find on Cousins for this prop is that he has had a bit of a rough stretch lately, throwing one or more interceptions in three of his last four games. He is also playing against the Los Angeles Rams this week, who are tied for sixth with two other teams for most team INTs.

None of that is enough to scare me off of this prop, the odds are seemingly always in our favor on this one.

Darrell Henderson - 75.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards - 100 Points - Under

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Darrell Henderson is averaging 77 total yards per game and has hit this over in six of 11 games this season. So why am I betting the under? Well, I never thought I’d say this but, I am scared of Sony Michel.

In Henderson’s two-game absence, Michel carried the ball 24 times for 121 yards, and 20 times for 79 yards. McVay was clearly impressed by this, as in Henderson’s first game back, Michel out-carried him 18 to six, out-gained him 92 to 23, and averaged 5.1 per carry to Henderson’s 3.8.

I am not saying Sony is better than Henderson. Henderson probably needs some time to reacclimate to the offense. But clearly, Sony has carved out a significant role in this offense and it is not going away any time soon.

Henderson has already failed to hit this over in four straight games. Now with Sony Michel in the mix, I don’t see that getting better in Week 16. Give me the under all day.

Dak Prescott - 27.5 Completions - 90 Points - Under

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The Cowboys have won three straight games, but Dak Prescott has been close to a nonfactor in those three wins for Fantasy purposes.

Averaging just over 200 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in those games is not what we are used to seeing from Dak and this offense. Quite frankly, he just seems a bit off. He is sailing passes over wide receivers’ heads and just doesn’t look quite right.

He is averaging 25.9 completions per game this season and has hit the over in five of 13 contests (38%). But there seems to be a deeper trend in those overs.

Four of the five came in highly competitive matchups. A two points loss to Tampa Bay, an overtime win against the Patriots, a 10-point loss against the Chiefs, and a three-point loss to the Raiders.

When they are in close games, they tend to rely on their passing game a bit more. But I don’t anticipate that will be the case in Week 16 against a banged-up Washington Football Team. When they beat them two weeks ago Dak completed just 22 passes, well under this 27.5 mark.

I am expecting more of the same here, a nice, controlled game for Dallas where they aren’t forced to push the ball downfield too much or take many risks.

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