2021 NFL Week 17 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2021 NFL Week 17 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 17 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

Last week was painful to watch for our Thrive picks. We went 2-4 bringing us to 42-38 on the year. But the painful part was that Prescott and Ryan missed their props by just one completion each, and despite 525 passing yards from Burrow, we couldn’t get that one Chase TD we were looking for.

But now with Fantasy Football leagues coming to a close this week it is the perfect time to start getting even more into DFS games like Thrive. It is a great way to keep your fantasy skills sharp throughout the end of the NFL season and into the playoffs.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 17 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Matthew Stafford - 2.5 Passing TDs+Ints - 115 Points - Over

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Matthew Stafford had a letdown game against what has been a very beatable Minnesota defense, but he has an even better matchup here. Baltimore is fifth-last in overall defensive DVOA, but they are second-last in passing defense DVOA while they are sixth-best in run defense.

This means that it is far easier to pass than it is to run against them. And I expect Stafford and the Rams to take full advantage of this fact.

Stafford is currently averaging 2.4 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions for a total of 3.3 per game. He has reached this 2.5 mark in 14 of 15 games this season. On top of that, Thrive is giving us an extra 15 points for the over. This is an absolute smash play this week.

Cooper Kupp - 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns - 90 Points - Over

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It would be ridiculous to take the Stafford over without also stacking it with Cooper Kupp’s over on touchdowns. Kupp has scored 14 touchdowns in 15 games this season, and he has hit this over in 9 of 15 games. So, while this isn’t as safe a pick as the Stafford over, it still looks very promising.

I won’t repeat all the statistics from the Stafford section on the Ravens' pass defense woes. But if you want a real-life example of how bad they’ve been, just think back to last week when the Bengals wideouts put up stat lines of 12 for 194 and 2, three for 85 and one, and seven for 125.

Kupp is balling out and the Ravens' defense simply is not, take the over and enjoy this beautiful stack.

The Unders

Josh Allen - 0.5 Interceptions - 110 Points - Under

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Well, it seems as though Thrive has finally caught on to their interceptions prop being grossly mispriced. Down to 110 points from the previous 125 that it had been at all season is certainly a significant change. And it takes this prop out of the ‘must-include’ territory that it had been occupying each week.

That being said, I still think this is a positive play this week. Josh Allen is averaging 0.8 interceptions per game this season. He has hit this under in only six of 15 games this season, but he is two for four in the past four weeks.

The Buffalo Bills have tightened up the turnovers since that weird midseason stretch where they lost to the Jaguars and were beaten badly by the Colts. And Allen is now sitting in the middle of the pack with a 12th best interception rate of 2.1%.

Now they get to take on the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are tied for the 8th fewest interceptions as a team in the NFL. They are also second-last in defensive DVOA, including the fourth-worst pass defense and eighth-worst rush defense. Essentially, you can do whatever you want against the Falcons.

The Bills should easily cruise to victory in this one, allowing Allen to take fewer chances, protect the ball, and win comfortably.

Kyler Murray - 260.5 Passing Yards - 100 Points - Under

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Kyler Murray has averaged a bit over this prop at 273.7 passing yards per game this season. But since he has returned from injury that number has dropped to just 252 per game, and he has hit this under in three of his last four matchups. The sportsbooks also project him under the 260.5 mark, with the over/under set at 255.5.

This offense is seriously missing DeAndre Hopkins' presence as the team has dropped three straight games to the Rams, Lions, and Colts.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense has been rolling. They are currently the number one overall defense in DVOA and number one against the pass as well. Fresh off four straight victories and a 56-14 prime time rout of the Washington Football Team, this team is catching fire at the right time.

These are two units going in completely opposite directions right now and I believe that trend will continue in this one, give me the under.

Justin Jefferson - 1.5 Receiving Touchdowns - 60 Points - Under

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It is very rare that I will take a prop that is worth only 60 points. As it means I will have to take riskier picks in other spots to make up for it. But I am willing to do it in select scenarios, and this is one of those times.

Kirk Cousins is out for this game with COVID which means that third-stringer Sean Mannion will be making his third career start. In his previous two starts, he averaged 147 yards and two turnovers per game. So, with his past performances, and very few practice reps to work with, I'm not expecting this to be a successful passing attack.

This game is also expected to be in freezing cold conditions further hampering the passing game,

Even in the best of conditions, two touchdowns are tough to pull off. Jefferson is a fantastic receiver, but he's only had one multi-touchdown game all year, I don’t think this is where he gets his second.

This one is a freebie, just make sure to build upside into your lineup elsewhere.

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