Betting

2021 NFL Week 2 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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Welcome to the 2021 NFL Week 2 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets! We got off to a pretty good start last week as we hit on two of our three bets! And given that I was clear that the one that didn’t hit was a long shot and you should bet less a unit, I’m definitely chalking up last week as a profitable one!

The game flow last week was pretty much as expected. My expectations for this week’s Sunday Night Football is a high-paced game with a whole lot of offense. The Ravens will likely try to slow the game down but we should see at least 75 total plays on Sunday night and might even be closer to 100. This was a game I had circled when the schedule came out, but since the Marcus Peters injury, this game might not be as close as I had originally thought.

Fortunately for me, I will be in attendance at this game and finally get my first peek at Patrick Mahomes in person. Let’s just say I am kind of excited, but I am also looking forward to seeing Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. I would be shocked if neither scores on Sunday. I am also looking forward to seeing Ty’Son Williams, whom I am impressed with so far this young season.

This game does have the potential to be a playoff preview and the Ravens usually play well at home in primetime games. The Chiefs should generate plenty of offense, but those betting the Chiefs to blow out the Ravens in Baltimore will wish they hadn’t. The Chiefs are currently a 3.5 point favorite and that sounds about right. Something tells me the Baltimore defense will do just enough to keep it close.

But I’m still expecting some fireworks, and that brings us to our first bet.

*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

2021 NFL Week 2 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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Patrick Mahomes 2.5 Passing TDs (+105) – OVER

This is the most obvious prop on the board. If you look at all the other props, Kansas City is favored by the books to score at least three touchdowns. I don’t think the Kansas City defense scores. I don’t see Mahomes endangering his season by running one in himself. And I think the Ravens front seven is too good to allow CEH to carry one in over the line. Therefore the TDs should come via the air and we know Mahomes has the ability to do so.

If you want to look at the historical head-to-head thing, Mahomes has nine touchdowns in three games against the Ravens. He also did have a remarkable six games last year where he threw three or more touchdowns. And that includes the four he threw against Baltimore last year. At better than even money, I’ll gladly take this bet.

However, I’m also very intrigued by the next bet, which is a bit of a hedge of Mahomes having too much success…

Patrick Mahomes .5 INTs (+145) – OVER

So after being conservative and winning last week, I’ve got a little more to play with and therefore I am being a little more aggressive this week. And it starts with this bet.

Last year Mahomes threw just six interceptions. That’s an average of 1 every 96 pass attempts. That’s pretty good, no argument. But I think the law of averages catches up to Mahomes this week, especially since he didn’t have a pick last week.

I would actually be surprised if neither of these bets hit, but what I really like is the odds of both of them hiting. It’s a bit of a risky bet, but as I said, I am feeling aggressive this week. But I like it. However, the next bet is my favorite.

Combined Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards + Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards 365.5 (-110) – OVER

Don’t look to bet this anywhere, because this is a DK special bet. However, I like it a lot and bet quite a few units on it already. We have what amounts to a combined total that depends on each quarterback doing what they are most known for–Mahomes passing and LJax rushing. Jackson is coming off a game last week where he rushed for an impressive 86 yards. But let’s not overweigh one week of data. It probably is best to look at what Jackson did last season when he rushed for an average of 67 yards per game. So assuming Jackson only duplicates his average from last season, we need Mahomes to throw for 298 yards.

Well, last week Mahomes threw for 337 yards in a game in which the Chiefs were playing from behind. Again, let’s not overweigh one week. If we look at last year’s stats we see that Mahomes passed for 316 yards per game. Combined those two…. winner-winner chicken dinner! Heck, even if we look at the entirety of Mahomes’ career his average per game is still 308 yards, we still easily hit our mark.

Now, should we assume of course that this is an “average” game for these young signal-callers? The answer is no. Because I think we are actually more likely to exceed their averages than less this game. This actually feels a little too easy. But I thought the same thing about Lamar Jackson and his 300+ combined yards prop last week. Yes, it hit, but it wasn’t until the Ravens’ final possession in regulation that it hit. So here’s another prediction for you–this bet will hit, but you’ll be sweating it out. But it will hit.

Final Thoughts

So I was trying to find a tweet that encapsulated my thoughts for the Sunday Night Game. But I was absolutely astounded by all the bickering back and forth about who is better, Lamar or Mahomes. Because first off, Lamar is right. It’s not about Mahomes and him, it’s about the Chiefs and the Ravens. Unless they play with the same other ten guys against the same 11 other guys, it’s not Mahomes vs Jackson.

But that didn’t stop all the Twitter battles. As I’ve said before, why does it always have to be just this or just that? Life is not always a zero-sum total. Why can’t both entities be amazing? As one tweeter said whose tweet was surrounded by all kinds of idiocy from others, “There are things Mahomes can do that nobody else can. He is special. But, that same concept goes for Lamar in his own ways and his own talents.”

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Amen to that. Enjoy the game. I know I will.


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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