Betting

2021 NFL Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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Welcome to the 2021 NFL Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets! After a strong Week 1 start, I absolutely crushed last week hitting all three of my suggested bets! That’s the good news. Unfortunately for me, I forgot to make my bets before Sunday and then forgot that DraftKings sportsbook is still illegal in Maryland, which is where I was on Sunday to see the game in person. It was a great game but alas, stupid Maryland gambling laws! Sigh….

And I felt I had a pretty good pulse on that game. And I was right apparently. However, full disclosure, I’m not as positive this week. But I’m basically two-for-two when predicting game flow, let’s see if I can make it three-in-a-row!

My expectation for this week’s Sunday Night Football is that San Francisco will slow the game flow down with a heavy dose of the running game. Green Bay doesn’t try to speed it up nor slow it down. They are often in the middle when it comes to pace, and once again Green Bay is 15th in the league in pass play percentage.

The over/under on this game is 49.5, which puts it right in the middle. I think that’s pretty close to where I would set it as I don’t see either team hitting 30 points. However, a 27-24 ball game or a 24-20 game both seem very likely to me. I think San Francisco wins this game as I think they have a much better defense than Green Bay. However, I would expect both teams to score at least offensive touchdowns.

So where are those two touchdowns coming from? Well, that brings us to our first bet.

*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

2021 NFL Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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Jacques Patrick +400 Anytime TD Scorer

If you can find perhaps a 49ers score a rushing TD prop, I would grab that over this bet. I’m sure the payout would be lower, but I am 100% confident in that happening. They failed to score a rushing TD in five games last year, but this is equally about Green Bay. The Packers have often been one of the weaker defenses vs the run over the past few years, including 21st in DVOA rush defense last season. We can expect San Francisco to continue to attack Green Bay’s defensive front via the ground. And so far this season they are allowing an average fantasy output of over 22 points to the RB position per game.

Of course things might be easier to predict if the 49ers didn’t seem so discontent with allowing the Ravens to be the most decimated team when it comes to the RB position.

But with the top four options all nursing some kind of injury, I’m going with the “new kid”. I’ve already publicly stated that I’m in on Jacques Patrick this week. I ended up grabbing the former XFL standout in 60% of my leagues. So yeah, I’m going to double-down on him this week. He’ll probably get injured between this week and next, but I’m gonna milk him for all he’s worth!

But if that is a little too aggressive for you, here’s something a little more conservative:

Aaron Rodgers 1.5 Passing TDs (-180) – OVER

As I said, I expect the Packers to score a couple of touchdowns. But I feel pretty confident in saying it will NOT be the Aaron Jones Show this week. Few players have as big a chip on their shoulders as Rodgers, and I think he takes things into his own hands this week…literally. We know Rodgers has more autonomy in the red zone than most QBs and I see him taking advantage of that fact. Less than 27% of the touchdowns against the 49ers came on the ground last year. With Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Mosely, and Josh Norman all less than 100%, the SF secondary has some issues. You have the love the probability of this happening.

The Packers offense rebounded big time last week. However, the Green Bay secondary still looked suspect, even against the Lions. Let’s bet on that trend continuing.

Deebo Samuel 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – OVER

At some point, I expect Brandon Aiyuk to close the gap and possibly surpass Samuel. But in the first two weeks of the season, Jimmy Garoppolo seems to have his eyes locked on Samuel. Deebo has 282 receiving yards through the first two weeks, the most by a San Fran WR since 1989 when some guy named Jerry Rice had more. I don’t foresee Deebo having anywhere near the 1,489 receiving yards like that Rice fella did that year, but we can’t ignore what Deebo has done. Let’s ride it till it’s over.

Samuel leads the NFL in receiving yards, yards per game, and yards after the catch. If he was facing a tough secondary, I might be less inclined to make this bet. But did you see how often Kevin King got beat against Detroit? And can we agree that Samuel is better than any of the Detroit receiving options? Samuel should dominate so badly, Kevin King might change his name to Kevin Serf. Take the Over.

Final Thoughts

I’ve seen Aaron Rodgers play. In person. At Lambeau. And he is often a special player to watch. But he is so easily overshadowed sometimes. Think I’m wrong? Watch the clip below and tell me 25 other quarterbacks couldn’t do the same thing he does and still not diminish the awesomeness of this….

That’s it for me. I’m like a bird and gotta fly away. Enjoy Sunday night!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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