Betting

2021 NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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It was bound to happen sooner or later. We now have a bit of a dud game for our 2021 NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets. I am sure two months ago the schedule makers thought Seattle/Pittsburgh would be a great game, but that was before Russel Wilson is out with an injury, and Ben Roethlisberger looked more like 49 years old than his actual 39 years of age.

But just because the game on paper might not be that attractive, it doesn’t mean we don’t have plenty of attractive bets we can make!

The money has shifted even more in favor of the Steelers throughout this week. I still think Pittsburgh wins this game, but the spread is getting to a bit of an uncomfortable place for me. However, I do think Pittsburgh wins by at least one score, but I like that score to be closer to the FG range than the TD range and I last saw it at 5.5 points.

I won’t be making any top-line bets on this game, but I am expecting Pittsburgh to control this game. I would expect both teams to rely heavily on their running game in order to set up play-action passes. And that’s when many of the touchdowns will likely be scored. Both teams have had trouble keeping WRs out of the endzone as Pittsburgh has allowed the third most WR fantasy points and Seattle a fairly close 6th most WR fantasy points. Despite the questions both teams have at quarterback, I do think the WRs can do some damage.

The listed over/under of 42.5 sounds reasonable to me, so what prop bets grab my interest this week? There are actually some I’m very excited about this week, and let’s start with the weekly DK special.

2021 NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Chase Claypool and D.K. Metcalf to combine for OVER 149.5 receiving yards (+120)

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So for those slow with the math, it means each one needs 75 yards. Claypool should easily do it. He is averaging over 85 yards per week and that was with Juju Smith-Schuster in the lineup. And if we weigh his recent performances, that average gets even better since he has 226 total receiving yards over his last games.  With Metcalf, it is a little closer as he is averaging just over 76 yards per game this season. But he too sees his average rise when looking at the more recent weeks, as he averages 81.5 yards over the last two weeks.

Obviously, Geno Smith is a downgrade from Russel Wilson. But Smith is not as much of a downgrade as you might think. Yes, he’s only averaging 151 passing yards per game. But in his limited action this year, he is averaging his highest yards/attempt. I think it might have something to do with the talent around him. But let’s give Smith say 25 attempts sound fair? At his current yards per attempt (which btw, Pittsburgh’s allowed YPA is right around that level), that gives Smith around 200 passing yards. If we apply Metcalf’s 38% target share to 200 yards, we do get just over 75 yards.

But remember, we don’t even need to each to hit 75. If Claypool hauls in 90 yards worth of passes then Metcalf only needs to haul in 60. I think between the two of them, they can easily hit that mark. And given the extra 20 points on this bet that I expected to be around +100, I gladly grab this special.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2.5 Total TDs (-140) – OVER

I like to provide a conservative bet every week and this might even be more conservative than I usually suggest. I refuse to call this “easy money” or a “sure” thing because we all know how easily that can jinx it. So let’s just call this a bet I’m extremely confident in hitting.

The Seattle D is struggling again this year and is on pace to set a new record for total yards allowed. They’re allowing a league-high 450.8 YPG and rank 27th in DVOA pass defense. Think more than a couple of TDs might come with that? They have allowed three or more touchdowns in each of their last four games. And while I’m a little scared to put my chips on Pittsburgh, they are coming off a three-TD game. They should be able to put up a trifecta of TDs this week as well.

Bet the OVER.

T.J. Watt 2.5 Solo Tackles (+125) – OVER

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Wouldn’t blame you if you took Watt’s Solo Tackles + Assists at OVER 3.5 at an identical payout, as “solo” vs “assist” is often very much at the discretion of the official scorer. But this just seems like an error we can exploit either way.

For one, in the four games that Watt has played this year, he has three solo tackles in every one of them. Perhaps the books are expecting a little regression to what Watt did last year when he had 43 solo tackles in 15 games or about 2.86 solo tackles per game. But that average is still higher than our 2.5 mark, even though we are splitting non-existent fractional numbers. But the book probably could have made this -125 and we still might have bet it!

Because the Seattle OL has not been great. OL rankings vary from site to site, but most of the sites have Seattle in the bottom half of their OL rankings. Maybe that’s what the books are figuring–Watt has a bunch of sacks and therefore doesn’t get enough solo tackles? I’m not buying that either. We know Geno Smith likes to run and Seattle is likely to put this game in the hands of their running game. Betting on an individual’s specific tackle number is often risky due to the subjective nature of the stat. But I suspect Watt easily gets three solo tackles this week and I’ll happily take the plus odds to do so.

Final Thoughts

There are a ton of reasons I don’t like the Steelers. The “bumblebee” uniforms they blotted our eyes with between 2012 and 2016 a few times might be one of the more universal reasons. Even some in Pittsburgh didn’t like them. Here at F6P we need your eyeballs for pageviews, so I opted not to include a picture of those for fear of damaging your eyes. But that’s a superficial reason. My loathing of the Steelers goes deeper than that.

Whether you are pro-Pittsburgh or anti-Pittsburgh, I think you will agree that they have a tendency to win ugly often. To their benefit (and their fans as well), they “find a way to win”. So it is often foolish to bet against them. However, even when I do bet on them, they seem to come up a little short one way or another. They have probably cost me more money over the years than any other football team.

I hope your luck is a little better than my mine. All I ask is that you simply keep that in mind as you place your props this week.


Good luck and enjoy Sunday night!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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