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2021 NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see how our Dalvin Cook prop would’ve played out as he missed the game entirely, but still another very solid week of picks at 3-1. This brings our season-long record to 17-10, well above average! I’m going to keep the blurbs short this time as I have seven killer selections for this week’s contest.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 6 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Joe Mixon – 61.5 Rushing Yards – 110 Points

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Joe Mixon has hit this over in four out of five games this year. His only miss? Last week when he only had 10 carries as he was banged up and not at 100% strength.

But now, head coach Zac Taylor announced that Mixon will receive a full workload this Sunday. For once a head coach helps out us gamblers and fantasy players!

In his four healthy games, Mixon averaged 88.3 rushing yards, well over this total. And the matchup is juicy. Detroit is allowing the 10th most rushing yards per game at 130.2, including just last week when they allowed Alexander Mattison to put up 153 total yards on them.

The only thing that can mess this up is a mid-game re-injury, knock-on-wood.

Patrick Mahomes – 2.5 Passing Touchdowns – 100 Points

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Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs got their butts handed to them in prime time last week. They are 2-3 on the season and last in the division. I would bet you anything Mahomes is going to come in to this one pissed off and determined to get back on track

From a prop standpoint, Mahomes has hit this over in four out of five games this year, with the only miss being last week when they were stymied by the Bills.

This game against Washington has a massive 54.5 over/under which means we should expect a whole lot of scoring. Now Tyreek’s status in this game is questionable but we know for a fact that Clyde-Edwards Helaire will be out so it should all even out in terms of play selection.

Don’t bet against an angry Mahomes.

Lamar Jackson – 292.5 Total Yards – 105 Points

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Lamar exploded for over 500 total yards on Monday Night Football in a come behind win against the Colts this past week. Lamar is simply on fire right now.

He’s hit this over in all five games this year, in fact, it’s not even close as he’s averaging an insane 372 total yards per game this season.

With so many injuries in the backfield and on the defense, Lamar is being asked to step up and take over games more often, and he is delivering.

The Unders

Aaron Rodgers 272.5 Passing Yards – 105 Points

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In an absolutely bizarre game with missed kicks abound, Rodgers and the Packers somehow walked away with a win against Cincinnati last week. It was also the only game this season in which Rodgers has surpassed 300 yards.

Rodgers is averaging just 248.2 passing yards per game this season and has hit this under in four of five games. Now, on the road against a tough Chicago defense that’s allowing only 228.6 passing yards per game, I’m not betting on him to repeat his performance from this past week.

Even in his MVP season in 2020 he only went over this mark in 10 out of 16 contests. It can be scary to bet against Rodgers, but it is paying off more often than not lately.

Carson Wentz 0.5 Interceptions – 125 Points

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For my favorite pick of the week, we have Carson Wentz to throw no interceptions against the Houston Texans. Despite how awful he looked last year; Wentz seems to have found his footing.

He’s thrown only one interception this year and is playing solid football. We need to stop living in the past, this is a different Carson Wentz.

And even if you don’t believe Wentz has truly changed the math alone dictates you should pick this prop. He has thrown a pick in 36 of 73 career games, so even if it is 50-50 chance (which it’s not) you would still be smart to take the extra 25 points,

In addition, the matchup against Houston is perfect. They are 1-4 and allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game. The Colts should be able to lean on Taylor and the run game and protect the football in this one.

Vegas seems to agree as the sportsbooks have Wentz at -160 to throw 0 picks.

Baker Mayfield 2.5 Passing TDs+Ints – 120 Points

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The Browns and Chargers got into a massive shootout last week where the Browns just barely feel short losing 42-47. With that massive scoreline, Baker Mayfield surely must’ve had a big fantasy day right? Wrong, 305 yards, two touchdowns. Not bad but nothing special either.

This is who Mayfield is in this Kevin Stefanski offense, he’s just not a TD guy. He has hit this under in all five games this year and it’s all because of this offense.

Since Stefanski took over this under has hit in 15 of 21 games for Baker. This season the Browns have the second-lowest pass to rush ratio in the league. Meaning they run less than every team except for the New Orleans Saints.

It is a run-first team plain and simple, collect a free extra 20 points here.

Amari Cooper 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns – 100 Points

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Amari Cooper has scored in three out of five games this year, meaning he has hit this under only two times. But we have to look deeper than that, we have to look at the volume.

Aside from his Week 1 explosion, which was an outlier I talked about in last week’s article, he’s had exactly three catches in every game this year. He has four touchdowns on just 25 catches, that’s roughly one per every six grabs. Throughout his career, he has averaged closer to one touchdown per every 11 catches.

Regardless of which figure you use it is clear that three catches per game is not going to cut it in the long term. Touchdowns are always a high-variance gamble, but I like our odds on this one.


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About Nick Spencer

Nick Spencer is a Canadian business school student with a passion for all things football. He specializes in NFL fantasy re-draft and dynasty league formats. He loves offering draft and trade advice to anyone who will listen, so tweet @NickBSpencer with any fantasy questions.

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