Betting

2021 NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

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When contemplating which 2021 NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football prop bets I wanted to make, I kept asking myself the same question. Will Frank Reich run Jonathan Taylor?

Taylor could be putting up similar numbers to Derrick Henry. He’s averaging a whopping 5.4 YPC, which is even better than Henry’s 4.8 YPC. But he only has 87 carries to Henry’s 162. Taylor is also averaging over 14 yards per reception, but his receiving prowess is almost irrelevant to this thought process.

I can’t decide if Reich knows something we don’t, doesn’t know what we all do, is just stubborn, or some combination of all three. And the issue for this week is that San Francisco has a pretty good run defense–they have allowed the ninth fewest rushing yards. The counter-argument is that they have a pretty good pass defense too. Only six teams have allowed fewer passing TDs than San Francisco.

So what kind of game flow should we expect? That will depend on Reich. We know Kyle Shanahan is going to want the run the ball. They have the eighth-lowest pass percentage in the league. Indy however is not much farther behind them at 12th. Both teams are also right around the middle in plays per game. The over/under is set at 43 and barring a special team or defensive touchdown, that seems like a very reasonable expectation.

Therefore I am probably going to recommend bets a bit more conservative than usual. And we start with an extremely conservative one.

2021 NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

*Note that all these props come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Ross Dwelley 2.5 receptions UNDER (-185)

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I’m already on record saying I don’t think Dwelley does much this week.

But no need to overcomplicate things. Last year Dwelley averaged a little over 15 yards per game while averaging 1.2 receptions. This year he has 46 yards total so far on three catches. The nearly negative 200 reflects that even the books think this is likely to happen. I don’t even like the value on this bet, but I do think it hits.

Carson Wentz 9.5 rushing yards OVER (-115)

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I am sure that the San Francisco defense is going to put enough pressure on the Indianapolis line that Wentz will be forced to rush at least a few times. I like this bet even more than the one above. Wentz is averaging 12.3 rushings yards per game this year and has averaged more than that his previous two years. Even in his rookie year, he averaged nearly nine yards a game. Take the easy bet.

Elijah Mitchell To Score a TD  (+110)

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My brain says to give you another bet with minus odds, but I just can’t. As promised, I am still going far more conservative than I usually do. But I feel like I just have to give you a bet that wins you at least an additional Franklin back to the one you wagered. Or Jackson or Lincoln or whatever you choose to wager. And this one jumped out at me.

I like Mitchell a lot this week, as at least for the time being he’s San Fran’s top RB this week. You should know that Indy has the fewest rushing TDs allowed. But if he catches a pass and takes it in, this bet hits as well. Recall he did have one of each back in week 1.

Final Thoughts

My kids and even my friends sometimes are puzzled by my political leanings. Sure, there are a number of issues of which I have a strong opinion. But I am what they call a “one-issue voter”, it just happens to be a rarely discussed issue. A candidate would still get my vote if they were on the opposite side of every issue as long as they were aligned on the most important one to me–national sports betting.

I saw a tweet this week that said you can go to nearly any convenience store in the country and buy $200 worth of lottery tickets, but easily less than half the states in this country have legalized sports gambling. Meanwhile, if the states that do keep generating revenue like this, things might change quicker:

Because at some point, revenue is going to exceed any kind of “moral” issue. And I think you know where my moral compass is on that issue! Seriously, let’s get legalized sports gambling passed folks.

The time has come.

Good luck and enjoy Sunday night!


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About Mark Strausberg

Despite his youthful appearance, Mark has aged hundreds and hundreds of years due to soul-sucking and crushing near misses over his decades of both playing and writing fantasy sports.

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