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2021 NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

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Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

Our quarterback-heavy lineup did quite alright for us last week, hitting on four out seven picks. This brings our season record to 21-13, not too shabby considering we are trying to focus mostly on high-point props.

And while our fantasy football teams may be in shambles due to the bye-pocalypse, Thrive has our star-player fix covered for us.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 7 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Derrick Henry – 115.5 Rushing Yards – 110 Points – Over

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I am done betting against this man regressing to the mean. Every indication would signal that he should slow down sooner or later but I’m not betting on it.

Taking out his 58-yard rushing performance in Week 1 where the entire offense flopped, King Henry has averaged 145 rushing yards per game. That is simply insanity.

They are going up against the Kansas City Chiefs who are allowing the fifth-most total yards per game at 410.5. This includes 133.2 rushing yards per game because they are the sixth-worst rush defense. The over/under for this game is set at 58 points. This game is going to be an offensive explosion and I want pieces in it.

Matchups don’t really matter for Henry, he showed against the Bills that he can dominate against anyone, but it is a nice safety net to know the matchup is a good one.

Vegas has Henry’s rushing line at 123.5. All signs point to this prop hitting the over, and they are giving you free extra 10 points to cap it off.

The Unders

Joe Burrow – 0.5 Interceptions – Under

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For whatever reason, Thrive Fantasy continues to misprice these interception props. I’ve picked the under on an interception prop almost every single week and it would just be foolish to stop now with the success rate that they are hitting at.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals take on the Baltimore Ravens in an exciting matchup of young talent. Baltimore is 14th in Defensive DVOA so the matchup is about average. The Ravens have four interceptions on the year and Burrow has thrown seven total.

This under is by no means a gimmie, between the matchup and Burrows interception rate this year. Unlike most other times we have taken this prop, there is a very real possibility he throws a pick in this game.

But the math still says it’s a good bet he doesn’t.

Burrow throws a pick in about half of all games going back to his shortened rookie season. This prop should be closer to 100 points, not an absurd 125.

We are looking to capture value and take chances on high point props, Those are the keys to launching us into the rare top-five finishes where you really start to make some good money. Take a chance for the high upside points here.

Lamar Jackson – 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns – Under

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Moving right along to the quarterback on the other side of the field, Lamar Jackson presents the opportunity for a nice under here as well.

The Bengals have been good against quarterbacks this year, but with a prop as inconsistent as touchdowns that doesn’t mean too much. What we can turn to here is Lamar’s rushing stats throughout history.

So far this season he has scored just two rushing touchdowns in six games and both of them came in the same game against the Chiefs in that wild Week 2 finish. That means he has hit this under in five out of six games so far this year.

Last year he hit the under in nine out of 15 games. Even going back to his MVP season in 2019 he still hit this under in nine out of 15 games once again.

Again, with a flukey prop like touchdowns, you are gambling on a lot of variability here. But the odds, 64% under hit-rate, would seem to be in your favor. Especially when you factor in the extra five points you are given from this prop.

Jonathan Taylor – 92.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards – Under

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Jonathan Taylor has been on fire in recent weeks. He had 158 total yards last week against the Texans, and 169 total yards the week before against the Ravens. So why on earth am I recommending the under?

Well, Taylor has been the benefactor of some extremely long runs recently that I think is contributing to the recency bias we are seeing in this line.

Now, we shouldn’t hold this against Taylor, after all, he is an extremely talented running back who can break those kinds of long runs. But an 83-yard rush last week and a 76 yards reception the week before? That’s not going to happen every single game.

Taylor has three games this season under 3.5 yards per carry and three games this season over 6.4 yards per carry, this is a sign of his explosive but inconsistent play style. And based on the matchup, I’m thinking this is going to be one of the 3.5 YPC games.

The Colts go on the road this week to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the sixth least yards overall. They allow eighth least yards per play, Taylor’s past two games were against the 28th, and 21st ranked teams in this metric.

Vegas agrees with the under here as he is being listed by sportsbooks at around 80 total yards for his over/under. It is a scary pick I get that; Taylor could ruin this prop in one play. But sometimes when everybody else zigs, you’ve got to zag.


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About Nick Spencer

Nick Spencer is a Canadian business school student with a passion for all things football. He specializes in NFL fantasy re-draft and dynasty league formats. He loves offering draft and trade advice to anyone who will listen, so tweet @NickBSpencer with any fantasy questions.

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