2021 NFL Week 9 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

by Nick Spencer
2021 NFL Week 9 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

Welcome everybody to the 2021 NFL Week 9 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks article!

We had a nice bounce-back week going 4-1 thanks to Keenan, Big Ben, Jimmy G, and Kamara. That brings us to 26-17 on the season. We will look to keep it going in Week 9 with another five props to help you finish in the money.

If you haven’t tried ThriveFantasy yet here’s what it’s all about. Unlike other DFS sites, you are not assembling a lineup.

Instead, each week there are roughly 20 prop bets centered around elite NFL players’ performances. You choose ten of those 20 props, and they are worth different amounts of points based on how likely they are to occur.

If you pick the prop correctly you earn those points, the more points you earn the more money you can win!

2021 NFL Week 9 ThriveFantasy Prop Bets Picks

The Overs

Derek Carr - 1.5 Passing Touchdowns - 110 Points - Over

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Derek Carr is quietly having an excellent season so far. The Raiders are 5-2 and in first place in a difficult division, and Carr is fifth in the league in passing yards. Unfortunately for the Raiders, off-the-field issues have been prominent this season. First Gruden and now Ruggs, these issues have detracted from the Raiders' actual gameplay which has been solid.

Carr has thrown 12 passing touchdowns in seven games this season, an average of 1.7 per game, and he is doing it with remarkable consistency. He has thrown exactly two touchdowns in every game this season except for once when the Bears held them to nine points. Still, six out of seven is something to take note of.

Their matchup this week, the New York Giants, are not nearly as fearsome as the Bears defense. The Giants are completely average against the pass at 16th in the league.

Of course, Carr will be without Ruggs in this game, but he has only caught two touchdowns all season so I wouldn’t be too concerned about that affecting Carr’s output. I’m willing to bet Carr continues his stellar season and will gladly take the extra 10 points from Thrive on this prop.

Austin Ekeler - 94.5 Total Yards - 100 Points - Over

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Speaking of stellar seasons, Austin Ekeler has been superb in 2021. He’s fifth in total yards from scrimmage among running backs and has scored eight times in seven games.

Ekeler is averaging 103 total yards per game this season and has been very consistent from week to week. He has hit this over in five of seven weeks and the two he missed are not nearly as bad when you have the context for them.

One of them was Week 1 when the Chargers refused to target him a single time. They have since rectified that mistake and have targeted him on average seven times per game since. The other was Week 6 against Baltimore when the Ravens completely shut down the Chargers' offense to a final score of 34-6. I don’t envision either of those outcomes happening this week against the Eagles.

The Eagles are 3-5 with two of those wins being against the floundering Falcons and Lions. They are also in the bottom third of the league against the run and the top third against the pass. The gameplay should flow through Ekeler and let him do what he does best, make professional NFL players look silly with his jukes.

The Unders

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Joe Burrow - 0.5 Interceptions - 125 Points - Under

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Once again, we have our weekly under 0.5 interceptions prop returning. This prop is like free money (almost) every week.

In an upset that nobody saw coming Burrow and the Bengals lost to the New York Jets last Sunday thanks to some heroics from Mike White. Despite this, the Bengals have been playing very well recently. They are 5-3 and Burrow appears to have made a full recovery from his injury last year.

Now, Burrow is averaging just over one interception a game as he’s thrown nine through eight games, but that isn’t enough to scare me off of this prop. He’s hit this under in two out of eight games but if you go back to last season, he did it in five of ten.

The sportsbooks’ have the Burrow under at between -130 to -135, meaning they are projecting roughly a 57% chance for him to throw no picks. I'll take those odds for 125 points any day, this prop is simply too valuable to pass up each and every week.

Jalen Hurts - 310.5 Total Yards - 95 Points - Under

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Jalen Hurts is the fantasy football equivalent of opposite day. Every time he seems to be playing poorly, he ends up with a great fantasy day. And this past week when he finally appeared to be playing well against the Lions, he finished with a lackluster 174 total yards and no touchdowns.

But at the end of the day, all we care about is the numbers. Hurt’s is averaging 281 total yards per game with 227 of those coming through the air and 54 on the ground. He has hit this under in five of eight games this season, including four straight times in the past four weeks.

Hurts and the Eagles face the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday, in what should be a much closer game than the Lions blowout last week. The Chargers are a run funnel defense. They allow the fifth-fewest passing yards per game but allow the most rushing yards per game in the entire league by a wide margin.

The Eagles would be wise to lean on their rushing game for a second straight week, and while Hurts can get it done with his legs, it is very difficult to hit 310.5 total yards without a decent amount of pass attempts.

310.5 yards is simply too high of a bar for Hurts this week, I’ll take the under here even with it being sub-100 points.

DeAndre Hopkins - 78.5 Receiving Yards - 80 Points - Under

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DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t broken 100 yards this season. In fact, he hasn’t even broken 90 yards, 87 is his best. In 2020 he had seven 100-yard games and was consistently in the double-digit target range. This offense has changed, they have no shortage of weapons and are more than willing to spread the ball around.

Hopkins has been averaging 61 yards per game this season and has hit this under in six of eight contests. And now he is dealing with a hamstring injury that will make him a game-time decision for this week. On top of that, Kyler Murray is dealing with a sprained ankle and could miss the game as well.

Even if both of them play, there is no guarantee that they will finish the whole game. And even if they do, their performance may suffer. Combine that with Hopkins lowered production this season and this under looks like a lock.

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