2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 12 Buy Low-Sell High

by Greyson Adams
2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 12 Buy Low-Sell High

We're about a week into the new year, but the NBA is still going strong with explosive performances almost daily. It seems like every day a new player is going for their career high. This is great for the game, and I've had a blast watching it unfold. It also means there are new opportunities in Fantasy Basketball to trade those players. On the flip side, there have been some cold streaks happening that you can also take advantage of. This is why I bring you the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 12 Buy Low-Sell High.

If you're new to my weekly segment, this article comes out every Friday. I go over players that I feel you should target or move on from. But not every player will be in the same tier. I divide them into groups to help you better understand who I would prioritize as a target. They are split into three sections: buy/sell of the week, main buy/sell targets, and other players to buy/sell.

As it is with most things, context is important. I normally determine my selections based on 9-category leagues, also called 9-cat. If you are in a points league, this may still help, but I cannot guarantee it. If you're unsure, or just have any fantasy basketball questions in general, you can reach out to me on Twitter @GreysonAdams907, or just click the link here.

Disclaimer: All statistics for the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 12 Buy Low-Sell High were made before games on Thursday, January 5th. Things may change in only a day! So be on the lookout.

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 12 Buy Low-Sell High

Buy of the Week: Desmond Bane, SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies

Desmond Bane is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated players in the NBA right now. That in itself could make him a buy. But to add to that, Bane hasn't been playing like his normal self recently. Over the last two weeks, Bane has shot just 36% from the field, down 7.5% from his season average.

Other important numbers to look at: he's averaging 1.3 triples (-1.7 from his season average), 15.5 points (-6.1), and 1.7 assists (-2.0).  Normally you can attribute this type of cold stretch to his return from injury. But he's been back for six games now, with minimal improvement. We haven't seen a game yet that represents even his average from before the injury, and that is likely to frustrate many Bane managers.

There are a few different factors I attribute to his rough stretch since his return. The first is the most obvious: the toe injury. Bane was out from November 11th until his return on December 23rd and it's clear to me that he still isn't 100% yet. Before the injury, Bane averaged 33.5 minutes per game, per NBA Stats. Since his return, Bane has averaged just 26.5 minutes per game, per NBA Stats.

He's also still sitting back-to-backs. I'm not a doctor, but I'm skeptical of how much injury management a toe injury truly needs, so this seems like a conditioning issue instead. Conditioning is vital to a player's abilities on the court, especially a shooter like Bane.

Since entering the league Bane has been one of the most prolific three-point shooters, hitting threes at a rate of 42.7%. This is one of the highest career three-point percentages in NBA history, number thirteen on the list. Eliminating low-volume shooters, adding in the caveat that they must attempt at least four three-pointers a game, he jumps up to number six on the list all time. All of this is to say that Bane's current three-point percentage of 21.1% since his return will not last.

Bane is playing significantly fewer minutes than normal and shooting worse than I've ever seen him in his career. It's the ideal time to trade for him before he returns to near all-star levels for the Grizzlies.

Main Buy Targets

Jarred Vanderbilt, PF/C, Utah Jazz

Jarred Vanderbilt has never been a player that his team will run plays for. He always takes what is given to him. He creates a lot of opportunity off hustle plays and can create some fun stat lines. Unfortunately, this can lead to some dud games if those plays just don't happen. Recently we've seen more dud games than fun games from him. This has had a negative effect on both sides of the ball.

Over the last two weeks, he's averaged 7.3 points (-0.9), 6.8 boards (-1.2), and 0.8 steals (-0.4). When a player is already low-volume, these stat decreases make him look borderline droppable. This makes him the perfect candidate to buy. There isn't really a true pattern to when his duds occur, but I have faith in positive regression. I'm also confident that his blocks will see an increase over time. His 0.3 blocks per game this season are just half of what he averaged last year.

Bruce Brown, SG/SF/PF, Denver Nuggets

Bruce Brown has been putting up fewer good stat lines as of late. His rebound and assist numbers in particular have dropped. This is likely due to the return of Michael Porter Jr. to the lineup. Despite this, I still have confidence in Brown. He is clearly one of coach Michael Malone's favorite players. Even after returning to the bench, he comes into the game after just six minutes. He has still played at least 26 minutes in every game he's been healthy for (except this recent game in Minnesota) since Porter Jr.'s return, so the volume is still there for the taking.

Jamal Murray is still going to sit back-to-back games for the foreseeable future. With Murray out against Boston, Brown put up 4 triples, 21 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block on 8/14 shooting. This is a window into what he can do as a ceiling, while also giving you some solid all-around stats as his floor even when Murray and Porter Jr. are healthy. Take this opportunity to trade for him.

Other Players to Buy

Victor Oladipo, SG/SF, Miami Heat

Oladipo is not the traditional "buy-low" that I normally put here, but I believe him to be a buy nonetheless. I believe he's a buy because he's very underrated and under the radar for most fantasy players. I rarely hear talk of his impact as a two-way player anymore, and it seems people have forgotten he was an all-star before the injuries took hold.

He looks like he's slowly returning to form, and his steal numbers have been elite. His shooting hasn't been the best, just 39.8% from the field, but I believe we'll see positive regression here as he plays more consistently.

Jusuf Nurkic, C, Portland Trailblazers

Nurkic's minutes this season have been an absolute rollercoaster, and it doesn't seem like a fun one. Just recently, Nurk played only 14 minutes against Detroit, putting up an abysmal stat line of 3 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. These games have a real effect on a player's trade value and can stick in a manager's head. That type of game can make someone completely forget that just the game before he had five 3s, 28 points, 15 boards, six assists, two steals, and three blocks.

Nurkic is a player that has a lower floor, but also a much higher ceiling than your average big man. If you have some more consistent players on your team, you should trade for Nurkic. You can probably afford his dud games and win out some weeks thanks to his patented Nurk Alerts.

Sell of the Week: Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG, Toronto Raptors

Over his last five games, Gary Trent has averaged 3.8 threes (+1.3), 25.8 points (+7.7), 3.6 rebounds (+1.3), and 2.0 steals (+0.4), while also shooting 48.9% (+5.6%) from the field. While it's pretty obvious that he won't stay at these levels, you can still argue that he's returning to similar levels as last season while having a much higher field-goal percentage. This can be very enticing for any team, as his biggest downfall last year was his 41.4% shooting from the field. This can be a pretty convincing argument. I've looked at his stats long enough that I almost argued him out of being a sell, but I still believe he is.

Gary Trent is a shooter through and through. We saw it against the Bucks most recently, where he started the game shooting 1/8 from the field, and then finished 8/23. He doesn't stop shooting. This ended up being positive in this game and he's been red hot since he returned from his injury, but it isn't always the case.

Gary Trent Jr.'s Unprecedented Efficiency

I looked more into Trent's shot chart to see if he had changed anything in his approach to the game recently. It turns out he has, but not in the way you'd expect. Trent is pretty much shooting the same shots he's been shooting all season when you differentiate between shots in the restricted area, mid-range, and three-pointers.

So he isn't taking more high-percentage shots at the rim. Well, maybe he's shooting more shots from the corner? Those are statistically the easiest shots since they're the closest to the hoop, so maybe he's shooting more of those. In fact, it's the exact opposite. Before this hot streak, Trent Jr. shot 22.4% of his three-point attempts from the corners. During this hot streak, he's shooting just 11.3% of his shots from the corners.

So overall, he's actually shooting with an increased difficulty on his shot attempts, and yet he's making more of them. This screams sell high, and I'd do it sooner than later.

Main Sell Targets

De'Andre Hunter, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks

De'Andre Hunter tends to fall under my category of a guy that basically just scores points and does nothing else. The Terrence Ross category, if you will. So I was surprised to see that as of late he's seen a jump in both rebounds and steals. This has given him a lot more value outside of just scoring, but I doubt this will last.

Steals can see a lot of variance for players who are just average defenders. This is natural, and we'll see regression back to his normal average of about 0.5-0.8 steals per game from its current 1.7 steals over the last two weeks. When looking at his rebounds, I would bet that once Clint Capela returns from his injury, his current surge of rebounding, up to 5.7 per game over the last two weeks, will die back down.

It would be wise to sell him for another player that gives you more variety in the categories they affect. I doubt this is a long-term trend for the Hawks' forward.

Rui Hachimura, SF/PF, Washington Wizards

Another player who I deem to be in the Terrence Ross category, Rui Hachimura has been doing a lot more than just scoring recently, but I don't expect it to last. We're already starting to see the drop-off in his most recent game against the Milwaukee Bucks, but he's still a valuable trade piece for now. Bradley Beal was just announced to be missing another week of time, so he could still be valuable for another week. But it's probably best not to push it and sell him while he still has value.

Other Players to Sell

Ayo Dosunmu, PG/SG, Chicago Bulls

After a very odd stretch of three games where he averaged just 13 minutes per contest, Ayo has been a more solid and productive player, especially over the last week. His recent stretch is nice, and he's definitely a talented player, but I worry about his consistency due to his role in the offense. He's not normally a player who gets a lot of volume.

His intangibles do not lend themselves to giving him those fun stat lines you see from a player like Jarred Vanderbilt, so it's more difficult to trust him. Alex Caruso has also not been in the lineup consistently, so it may be smart to move Ayo while he has this value.

Dennis Schröder, PG, Los Angeles Lakers

Schröder had his best game of the season against the Miami Heat on Wednesday night. It was no coincidence that LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Lonnie Walker IV were all out, allowing him to shine with his volume. This is the perfect game to sell him, as there may come a time when he's better suited on the waiver wire.

 

That concludes my 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 12 Buy Low-Sell High. Be sure to check back in next week for the newest edition!

 


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