Week 15 is here. As we inch closer and closer to the Fantasy Playoffs, you'll be looking to solidify your team with the best players possible. To get the best players, you need to be smart about your transactions. That means shipping off players on hot streaks and grabbing players who might be in a slump. That's why I bring to you the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 15 Buy Low-Sell High.
If you're new to my weekly segment, this article comes out every Friday. I go over players that I feel you should target or move on from. But not every player will be in the same tier. I divide them into groups to help you better understand who I would prioritize as a target. They are split into three sections: buy/sell of the week, main buy/sell targets, and other players to buy/sell.
As it is with most things, context is important. I normally determine my selections based on 9-category leagues, also called 9-cat. If you are in a points league, this may still help, but I cannot guarantee it. If you're unsure, or just have any fantasy basketball questions in general, you can reach out to me on Twitter @GreysonAdams907, or just click the link here.
Disclaimer: All statistics for the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 15 Buy Low-Sell High were made before games on Thursday, January 26th. Things may change in only a day! So be on the lookout.
2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 15 Buy Low-Sell High
Buy of the Week: Robert Williams, C, Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum lobs it up to Robert Williams lll ?pic.twitter.com/5g0FHcxZuD
— Celtics Nation (@CelticsNationCP) January 20, 2023
Williams is having a respectable season since his return from injury. Yet, it's not what everyone had expected. Many believe Williams has DPOY-level potential, but his current 0.5 steals and 1.3 blocks are not DPOY-level. However, I believe we'll see him return to last season's level when he averaged 0.9 steals and 2.2 blocks.
The knee injury Williams sustained and had surgery for this offseason isn't new for the big man. He's been dealing with injuries his whole career. He's played 60 or more games just once in his five-year career. I don't believe the injury is holding him back. In fact, recently Williams has returned to playing almost 30 minutes a night. Since January 12th, Williams has played 27+ minutes in all but one game.
When Williams returned this year, his production was much higher than it is right now on a per-game basis. Yes, the stats look the same, but he's gone from 18.8 minutes per game in the month of December up to 24.4 in the month of January.
Yet he's still averaging practically the same numbers. This is all to say that his production has been worse in January than in December.
Looking at Williams' game log from the 2021-22 season, I noticed a similar trend. In the month of October, or his first month playing that season, Williams averaged 1.2 steals and 3.2 blocks. But the following month his numbers dropped down to just 0.8 steals and 1.0 blocks. Once December hit, he returned to great production, averaging 0.6 steals and 2.0 blocks.
This is not to say that this is a guaranteed pattern, but it goes to show that Williams has had down months before and recovered quickly from them. He's jumped back up to insane levels of defensive production for Fantasy Basketball before. I expect it to happen again.
Main Buy Targets
Tyler Herro, PG/SG, Miami Heat
Most clutch threes made this season:
13 – Jordan Clarkson
11 – Tyler Herro
11 – Anfernee Simons pic.twitter.com/b9GPnK5e8x
— StatMuse (@statmuse) January 21, 2023
Tyler Herro missed three games in a row and since returning has been subpar. In his last five games (since returning), Herro has hit multiple threes in a game just once. He's averaging 1.2 threes (-1.9 compared to his season average), 16.0 points (-4.5), and 4.8 rebounds (-1.0). He's shooting just 40.7% (-3.3%) from the field as well, thanks to a 4/19 performance against Boston.
Herro's main issue since returning has been his threes and scoring. Per NBA.com, Herro is shooting 1.5 fewer threes during this five-game stretch compared to his season average. He's also hitting his threes at a 17.6% clip as opposed to his normal 36.8%. This is your standard slump for a player. He's one of the best in the league at hitting difficult threes. Below you can see his talent in three-point shot-making over the course of this season compared to everyone else, per Bball Index.
Herro is circled here so it's easier to see, but there are very few players in the league who hit more shots and are less open than he is. I'm confident he'll see positive regression soon.
Khris Middleton, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks
Khris Middleton is BACK ?pic.twitter.com/aGHFqaFBcM
— Bucks Nation (@BucksNationCP) January 24, 2023
Middleton has returned to playing basketball again. Much to the dismay of his managers, he's played some not-so-good basketball in these first two games. Yes, he's only played fifteen minutes in each, but he managed to still turn the ball over six times in his first game back. If you're in a points league that docks for turnovers, he practically scored zero points for you that game.
The expectations likely weren't high for his first few games back, but the frustration has likely just built up, and I'm sure many are ready to move him to someone else for any sort of top-75 player. In his second game back against Denver, he looked more like his normal self.
But his game is played in such a boring way (no offense Khris), that many likely don't think of him as a highly valuable piece. We shouldn't forget that Middleton has been an all-star in the past. Trade for him now on what the current Middleton manager may view as an overpay.
Other Players to Buy
Tari Eason, SF/PF, Houston Rockets
Statistically, Tari Eason is best in the NBA at pick-pocketing dudes, and that shows every single game.
Last night, he decides to just take the ball away from its previous handler a couple of times. Don't expose the ball to him or you'll learn a lesson. pic.twitter.com/SOZKle3jvp
— Itamar (@Itamar_17_10) January 24, 2023
Eason has been a player coming off the bench for the Rockets that has shown some flashes, but his minutes have really limited his consistent production. Recently, we've seen his minute totals slowly start to creep up, even getting a couple of spot starts with injuries to other players. In games where he has played 20+ minutes, 16 total games, here are Eason's 9-cat averages, per Basketball Reference:
FG%: 4.2/8.5 = ~49.2% (+5.3%)
FT%: 1.6/2.2 = ~71.4% (-6.5%)
1.0 threes (+0.3), 10.9 points (+2.8), 6.4 rebounds (+1.0), 1.5 assists (+0.6), 1.6 steals (+0.5), 0.5 blocks (-0.1), and 1.3 turnovers (+0.3)
If he continues to see more and more minutes, he could provide a huge boost to your team's stocks and rebounds. He's very cheap to go get. I would recommend trading for him in a deeper league.
Sell of the Week: Alperen Sengun, C, Houston Rockets
A triple-double night for Alperen Sengun:
10 assists pic.twitter.com/oraLJ5o1tM
— NBA (@NBA) January 26, 2023
Sengun, dubbed "Mini Jokic" by many, is starting to look like a Mini Jokic on the stat sheets now too. Over the last two weeks, Sengun has ranked 18th on a per-game basis according to Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball. He's averaging 21.0 points (+5.5), 10.7 boards (+1.7), 7.0 dimes(+3.5), 1.6 steals (+0.8), and 1.6 blocks (+0.6). He's also shooting 68.1% (+10.7%) on 13.0 shots (+2.3 shot attempts).
Sengun has had a couple of triple-doubles recently and he's finally producing the way everyone has hoped for since he dawned a Rockets jersey. The hype is there, especially in the fantasy community. This is the ideal time to trade him, and here's why.
Sengun has been heralded as the next Jokic since he was drafted. It's not hard to see why the comparisons are made. A tall European big man who has an unorthodox style and is a great passer. The biggest issue I have with Sengun for fantasy is not his talent, that much is apparent. It's his usage on a Rockets team with an iso-heavy style.
Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. make up the starting backcourt for the Houston Rockets. Both of these players are young and talented. Most importantly, they LOVE scoring and they LOVE to have the ball in their hands. For better or worse, that's how the team has operated this season.
However, two weeks ago, Kevin Porter Jr. sustained a foot injury that has kept him out since. Notice the coincidence? In that same game two weeks ago, Sengun had his first triple-double and has been on a hot streak ever since.
Things could have changed. Even after Kevin Porter Jr. returns, maybe Sengun is the same player. But that unknown is enough for me to sell him now before that happens and let someone else deal with it. You can likely use his hype to get a big piece in return, as this hasn't been just a one or two-game stint.
Main Sell Targets
Pat Connaughton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks
Pat Connaughton is on FIRE ?
He is a perfect 5-of-5 from the 3 point line ✅pic.twitter.com/4Ow4lqe3P2
— Bucks Nation (@BucksNationCP) January 26, 2023
Over the last week, Pat Connaughton has averaged 3.3 threes (+1.2), 13.3 points (+4.8), and 7.0 rebounds (+3.4). Despite Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue all being in the lineup, Connaguhton is still getting big minutes. He saw 38 minutes last night against Denver in a game that (surprisingly) wasn't a blowout. This all sounds pretty convincing, right? Well, this is the ammunition you can use to trade him away as a valuable piece in a trade, rather than just a throw-in.
Extending his run to the past two weeks, Connaughton has still been a lights-out shooter. We'll use NBA.com's tracking metric to identify how "open" Connaughton has been on his three-point attempts over the last two weeks compared to his season average. We've used this stat in the past for shooters, and it has yielded some success.
Connaughton's hot streak
When comparing the two, Connaughton is shooting more shots from distance over the past two weeks by about 0.7 attempts, all of which have been on open shot attempts (4-6ft of space). When looking deeper, Connaughton has actually been shooting worse when tightly contested (2-4ft of space) by a defender, dropping from 0.2 threes made out of 0.6 threes attempted down to 0.0 made threes out of 0.6 threes attempted.
So any time someone has tightly contested his threes, he's missed.
This is just a very small percentage of his shot attempts. He's shooting almost all of his threes as either open or wide-open shots (4-6ft and 6+ ft of space, respectively). On these shots, he's currently hitting them at a 50.0% clip, as opposed to his season average of 35.8%. I believe Connaughton will fall somewhere in the middle of these two percentages.
I'm also hesitant about his usage and minutes staying above thirty for the season. The Bucks are a deep team, and if another player gets hot, I could see Connaughton's minutes drop.
Norman Powell, SG/SF, Los Angeles Clippers
— TheColdWire.com (@thecoldwire) January 25, 2023
Norman Powell has been on a great run as of late. Over the last week, he's averaged 3.3 triples (+1.3) and 22.3 points (+5.8) on 65.7% shooting (+16.9%). Powell has always been an effective and relatively efficient scorer, but outside of that, he doesn't provide much else. He falls into the Terrence Ross category for me. I would sell him immediately for a more well-rounded 9-cat value, either in a straight-up trade or more likely in a 2-for-1 for a more valuable player.
Other Players to Sell
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers
Rui Hachimura ? pic.twitter.com/IobIYXwgvb
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 26, 2023
Rui Hachimura had a solid outing in his first game for the Lakers. It wasn't anything crazy, but enough for people to look in his direction with the big trade news that came this week. Laker fans have been doing their best to get excited about this one, and fantasy players are looking for any way to justify getting a player with newfound potential onto their team.
Hachimura's rostered percentage in Yahoo! leagues has jumped from just 25% up to 41% in the last week. People clearly want him on their team right now. He's not going to be someone you trade expecting to get a ton of value in return, but I would look to trade him as part of a package. You could also try to move him for someone you're more confident that you'll roster for the rest of the season.
That concludes my 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 15 Buy Low-Sell High. Be sure to check back in next week for the next edition!
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