If you're in a league format similar to those I'm in, then we're just under a month away from the trade deadline. You might even have an earlier deadline, so trades are important to get done. A top priority for you in your league. That's why I bring to you the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 16 Buy Low-Sell High.
If you're new to my weekly segment, this article comes out every Friday. I go over players that I feel you should target or move on from. But not every player will be in the same tier. I divide them into groups to help you better understand who I would prioritize as a target. They are split into three sections: buy/sell of the week, main buy/sell targets, and other players to buy/sell.
As it is with most things, context is important. I normally determine my selections based on 9-category leagues, also called 9-cat. If you are in a points league, this may still help, but I cannot guarantee it. If you're unsure, or just have any fantasy basketball questions in general, you can reach out to me on Twitter @GreysonAdams907, or just click the link here.
Disclaimer: All statistics for the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 16 Buy Low-Sell High were made before games on Thursday, February 2nd. Things may change in only a day! So be on the lookout.
2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 16 Buy Low-Sell High
Buy of the Week: Pascal Siakam, PF/C, Toronto Raptors
Pascal Siakam's stats vs. Sacramento:
26 PTS | 11 REB | 7 AST | 2 STL | 2 BLK@Raptors | #WeTheNorth pic.twitter.com/vi0evaGECM
— NBA Canada (@NBACanada) January 26, 2023
The Raptors stars can't seem to play well at the same time. As soon as Fred VanVleet starts to pick up his game, Siakam goes into a small slump. Over the last month, Siakam is ranked 158th in Yahoo! 9-cat leagues. He's averaging 1.1 threes (-0.2 compared to his season average), 22.1 points (-2.8), 7.6 boards (-0.4), 5.5 assists (-0.7), and 0.3 steals (-0.4). He's also shooting just 44.2% from the field (-2.8%) and 74% from the line (-2.7%).
Siakam hasn't been particularly bad in one category, but after the start he had it's safe to say this recent stretch is disappointing. The hope for positive regression comes in a few different forms. The first is that we're still seeing some games where he's getting nearly a triple-double. The talent and potential are obviously still there, but it's not coming as consistently.
Pascal Siakam's On-Court Process
My biggest reason for believing in positive regression for Siakam comes from looking at his process this season. I looked into Siakam's tracking stats over the last month, via NBA.com. I looked through his shot selection, how many dribbles he's taking, and how open he is on his shots. What I saw was that he was actually being smarter on the offensive end, improving his process. He's dribbling less, shooting more wide-open (6 feet or more of space) shots, and holding onto the ball in general for less time.
Overall, Siakam looks to be playing with a higher IQ than he was to start off the season, the shots just aren't falling as they should be yet. I'm very confident that we will see that improve again soon. His usage is only slightly lower as well, down to 25.6% from 27.2%, so that shouldn't have a significant effect on his other counting stats.
Additionally, with scoring confidence comes increased gravity, allowing for him to improve his assist numbers again. Although his current ranking does not suggest it, I would place Siakam at second or third-round value.
Main Buy Targets
Royce O'Neale, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets
Say Something Nice About Royce O’Neale pic.twitter.com/0Lo8IaU7Ra
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) November 18, 2022
O'Neale isn't a flashy fantasy player, but he provides some nice stats in almost every category. His biggest concern is his field goal percentage, but looking into it he should see some positive regression soon.
I looked into his splits when Kevin Durant is healthy versus when he isn't. O'Neale, being the role player he is, thrives off the gravity of Kevin Durant. Per StatMuse, O'Neale's stats are better in every single category with Durant than without him, sans points and rebounds which remain the same. Most significantly, he's 2.9% more efficient from the field, hits more threes at higher efficiency, and gets more stocks with Durant. With Durant's return likely to come soon, O'Neale could be a sneaky buy-low, especially in deeper leagues.
If you want to see the numbers for yourself, click here for his stats without Durant, and here for his stats with him.
Kenrich Williams, SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
the kenrich williams statue in okc is going to be immaculate pic.twitter.com/1WKWcl4Kyd
— Dan Favale (@danfavale) January 28, 2023
Kenrich Williams is another player that I feel is a deep-league value. He's a buy-low due to the way people view him rather than his box scores. Kenrich Williams isn't a name that really stands out, but he's been quietly solid for the Thunder, occasionally even finding himself starting at center for them.
He does a little bit of everything and only really "hurts" you in free throw percentage, where he shoots less than one attempt a game. He's another player that I would look to grab for cheap to help with your lower-end.
Other Players to Buy
Bones Hyland, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets (For Now)
Nuggets 'likely' to move Bones Hyland at 2023 NBA trade deadline, per reporthttps://t.co/RSHYi7qxoz
— CBS Sports NBA (@CBSSportsNBA) February 1, 2023
Trade rumors have been picking up steam surrounding the move of Bones Hyland from the Denver Nuggets to a situation where he can see an increased role. This is unfortunate for me as a Nuggets fan, but the situation is seeming more and more like a reality.
Bones has seen an extremely low amount of minutes recently, suggesting that the team is looking to see what they have should he be traded. If he were to go to a situation where he got anywhere from 22-30 minutes a game he would be a valuable piece, especially in points leagues and for teams that are punting field goal percentage. He may be on your wire, but if not I would still try to snag him from another team now before it's too late.
Sell of the Week: Terry Rozier, PG/SG, Charlotte Hornets
31 PTS, 6 REB, 7 AST and a pair of buzzer-beating triples 👀
Terry Rozier's offense fueled the @hornets in their win! pic.twitter.com/ZI4dC6z4IL
— NBA (@NBA) January 29, 2023
Scary Terry has been the 21st-ranked basketball player in Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball 9-cat leagues over the last month. He's averaging 3.5 triples (+0.8), 24.9 points (+3.2), and 1.6 steals (+0.6). He's also shooting 45.0% from the field (+3.6%). Although as of late Rozier's efficiency has gone back down to its season average, he's still scoring at an elite rate.
Terry Rozier is shooting 21.2 shots a game over the last two weeks. That's about 1.7 more shots per game than his season average. Looking into this further, I wanted to see what types of shots Rozier is taking in this two-week span compared to his season average. Rozier is taking 1.7 more three-point attempts per game, which is identical to the increase we see in his overall shot attempts.
All of these added three-point attempts are coming in the form of dribble pull-ups and he's hitting them at a 10% more efficient rate than normal, per NBA.com. So he's taking a higher volume of difficult shots, and making more of them. For me, that screams unsustainable.
I expect him to cool off sooner rather than later, and his threes and points per game will both regress. Trade him now while he has great value. He's doing this even with Lamelo Ball back, which can be a great argument for your side.
Main Sell Targets
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons
Saddiq Bey is up to 34% from 3 on the season on 5.6 attempts
Last 26 Games - 40% on 5.9 attempts
Last 17 Games - 40% on 6.4 attempts
Last 8 Games - 44% on 7.1 attempts
I know, I know...the missed pass to Duren last night
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ but at least the shooting has improved #Pistons pic.twitter.com/TdKJE9P0aZ
— Motor City Hoops (@MotorCityHoops) January 31, 2023
Bey is the quintessential shooter for the modern NBA. Regardless of what type of night he's having, he's gonna shoot the ball and get his. This tends to lead to inefficient shooting. And Bey is no exception. However, over the last two weeks, Bey has been providing top-50 value for fantasy managers. He's averaging 3.0 threes (+1.1), 18.0 points (+3.4), 6.4 rebounds (+1.9), and 1.4 steals (+0.4).
Over the season, Bey has shot 51.4% of his shots from two-point range, and the other 48.6% from three-point range. In this shortened span, that has changed drastically. Over the last two weeks, Bey is now shooting 45.8% of his shots from two-point range and 54.2% of his shots from three-point range. This switch would normally lead to a lower field goal percentage overall, but that hasn't been the case. Bey's three-point percentage is up 6.2% compared to his season average, inflating his overall stats for fantasy.
His overall usage and confidence are clearly up during this hot streak, which is likely why we see an increase in his boards as well. There have been points in the season where he was difficult to even roster (mostly when Cade was healthy, but still). It's best to move him now while his value is this high because he could end up being nothing more than an inefficient three-point specialist.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF, Denver Nuggets
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's defense has been unreal as of late. pic.twitter.com/ckXCA8wsNZ
— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) January 25, 2023
As a Nuggets fan, it's pretty easy to see that KCP is much more valuable for a real basketball team than a fantasy one. He does a lot of the dirty work that doesn't always show up on the box score. Unfortunately, the box score is all that ends up mattering for Fantasy Basketball.
There are stints where his box score reflects his solid value to the Nuggets, and this stretch is one of those times. He's had two or more steals in every game he's played dating back to January 11th, but his good defense doesn't always translate to stocks, so it's best to move him now.
Other Players to Sell
Larry Nance Jr., PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans
Larry Nance Jr. with the putback slam on Jokic 👀 pic.twitter.com/xMJlRgMKWM
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 1, 2023
Nance is a very unique basketball player. His tools on both ends of the floor allow him to have some 9-cat gems, but they lead to some duds as well. Plays aren't ever really called for him so a lot of his offensive stats are reliant on hustle plays and being the guy to make the last pass.
His last two weeks have been solid, with averages of 9.3 points (+1.4), 7.1 boards (+1.3), and 1.3 steals (+0.3). Nance doesn't seem to be affected by who's available or unavailable to play, but rather by how head coach Willie Green feels he matches up with that team. This leads to a lot of inconsistencies that although we haven't seen as much of them lately, are definitely still there. It's best to trade him as an add-on to a package for a more valuable player.
That concludes my 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 16 Buy Low-Sell High. Be sure to check back in next week for the next edition!
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