2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 18 Buy Low-Sell High

by Greyson Adams
2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 18 Buy Low-Sell High

The dust has now settled after the NBA's trade deadline. But now we've reached the NBA All-Star Weekend. Players get a well-deserved break from the strenuous NBA season. But do you want to take a break? Of course you don't. You want to make moves! I have the perfect solution for you: the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 18 Buy Low-Sell High.

If you're new to my weekly segment, this article comes out every Friday. I go over players that I feel you should target or move on from. But not every player will be in the same tier. I divide them into groups to help you better understand who I would prioritize as a target. They are split into three sections: buy/sell of the week, main buy/sell targets, and other players to buy/sell.

As it is with most things, context is important. I normally determine my selections based on 9-category leagues, also called 9-cat. If you are in a points league, this may still help, but I cannot guarantee it. If you're unsure, or just have any fantasy basketball questions in general, you can reach out to me on Twitter @GreysonAdams907, or click the link here to get to my page.

Disclaimer: All statistics for the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 18 Buy Low-Sell High were made before games on Thursday, February 16th. Things may change in only a day! So be on the lookout.

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 18 Buy Low-Sell High

Buy of the Week: Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers

When I put Tobias Harris in the sell column early on in the season, this wasn't what I had in mind when I said he would regress. He's in a big slump, averaging 1.1 threes (-0.7), 9.3 points (-5.6), and 4.3 boards (-1.7) while shooting 40.3% (-9.3%) from the field.

I looked more into his tracked shooting via NBA.com. His scoring and efficiency have been the main reasons for his drop in value. Looking into his tracked shooting stats can divulge whether a player's process has changed or if they're simply missing more shots. Here's what I found.

Tobias Harris's Tracked Shooting Stats

Tobias Harris has the ability to create his own shot, but it's preferable to have someone like Harden find him for higher-quality looks where he doesn't have to shoot off the dribble. Compared to his season average, Tobias Harris is actually shooting more shots where he's dribbling less, leading me to believe that he has these high-quality looks and just isn't converting them right now.

Looking more into it to confirm this, I checked how "open" he's been on his shots. If you've been with me this year, you'll know this is one of my favorite stats to use. Over the last two weeks, he's actually shooting more open shots than he has all season. He's seen a 3.1% increase in the percentage of "open" or "wide-open" shots he's taking compared to "tight" or "very tight" shots.

I went over to BBall Index to look at his shot quality for the whole season. Below are the results, Harris is circled in red.

Shot Making vs Shot Quality

Harris isn't the best shot-maker, nor does he have the highest quality of looks. But, he has a good combination of the two that gives me confidence for him going forward.

This dive into his shooting stats leads me to believe that he's just in a slump. This may be due to the 76ers finally having both Melton and Maxey at the same time and trying to work out the system now that everyone is healthy. I would expect him to get out of this slump soon. He can and should provide top-75 value for your team, so buy him on the cheap now.

Main Buy Targets

Steven Adams, C, Memphis Grizzlies

Steven Adams is nearing a return, "hopefully in the next week or two" per Memphis Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins on February 14th. This may seem like a long time to have to hold him with the injury, but with the lack of games due to the all-star break, he may only miss one or two more games before he returns to the court.

Adams is an integral piece to the success of the Memphis Grizzlies. Without him, they've won just four of their last eleven games. They will look to get him back into the lineup as quickly as they can, and he'll go back to being a valuable piece for fantasy teams.

Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers

Maxey is the second 76er in the buy column, but for a different reason. Recently, 76ers' guard De'Anthony Melton has been playing significantly fewer minutes despite being the starter. Over his last four games, he's averaging 22 minutes per game. This has opened up room for Maxey to retake the minutes and production he had before his injury.

Maxey's last four games before the all-star break saw him playing an average of 32.5 minutes per game. His average since returning from injury has been exactly 30 minutes a game. This small stretch combined with a decrease in Melton's minutes is promising for Maxey going forward.

Other Players to Buy

Jalen Duren, PF/C, Detroit Pistons

In a move that puzzled many, the Detroit Pistons traded for center James Wiseman. Wiseman's debut came against Boston, where he played 23 minutes, significantly reducing Duren's on-court time. This is the perfect opportunity to buy Duren. Many managers will be worried about a drop in his minutes with Wiseman there.

I believe he's a buy because I doubt this lasts. Wiseman has not passed any sort of eye test or statistical tests for me. He just doesn't seem very good, and I believe Duren is much more talented, while also being younger. Wiseman should see a drop in minutes as time goes on and they realize Duren in the better player. Snag him now while doubt is at its highest.

Let's not forget what he did just a week ago (see tweet above).

Sell of the Week: Mikal Bridges, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets

This one hurts because I love Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges has been a very valuable player in both fantasy basketball and real life for a few years now.

His move to the Nets has come with new opportunities, and he took advantage in their game against the Miami Heat. He finished with 45 points, eight rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks while shooting 17/24 from the field and 7/7 from the line. It's one of the best 9-cat stat lines I've seen in a very long time. Unfortunately, I think that this makes it the best time to sell him.

As I said before, Bridges has been a consistently valuable piece in fantasy for a few years now. He rarely misses a game and he contributes in almost every category. But this new move could change things. Before this masterpiece of a game, Bridges had shot just 10/26 from the field in the two games prior. He's averaging 2.33 turnovers a game over his first three games in a Nets jersey. These are two of the main categories that have made Bridges so valuable.

His increased role will obviously give him the potential for more volume, but I'm just not convinced that it will be a net positive. Mikal Bridges is one of the most, if not the most, valuable role players in the league.

But we've never seen him in a bigger role. And yes, we've just seen his ceiling, but I'm not convinced that we'll have more of that and less of what happened in the game against the New York Knicks, where he had seven points, five rebounds, and three assists on just 2/8 shooting from the field and 2/4 from the line.

We might be seeing an increase in quantity, but a decrease in quality for him. And that may not be a good thing for his fantasy value.

Main Sell Targets

Josh Hart, SG/SF, New York Knicks

The recently acquired Josh Hart has looked terrific for the New York Knicks in his first three games. Averaging 17.0 points (+7.0) and 1.7 steals (+0.6) while also shooting 62.1% (+10.8) from the field. I believe Hart is a great player and the Knicks were wise to trade for him, but head coach Tom Thibideau seems too stuck in his ways.

Thibs is still going with Quentin Grimes in the starting unit, which is having a significant impact on Hart's minutes coming off the bench. Hart is averaging just 26 minutes per game since coming over in the trade between the New York Knicks and the Portland Trailblazers. While he's been able to do a lot in those minutes so far, it will be difficult to sustain that production.

You could bank on Thibs eventually giving him more minutes, but it's a risk. It might be better to sell him to someone else before the stats become more inconsistent.

Derrick White, PG/SG, Boston Celtics

Derrick White has been on a tear recently. Over the last two weeks, White has averaged 3.4 threes (+1.6), 22.1 points (+10.3), 4.3 boards (+1.0), and 7.0 assists (+3.1). His production has him ranked 15th over the last two weeks according to Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball.

White has taken full advantage of multiple significant absences for the Boston Celtics. During this two-week stretch, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown have each missed multiple games. During those absences, it is always Derrick White who sees a boost in minutes.

Horford and Smart are now healthy again, and we just saw its effects on White's production in their game against the Detroit Pistons. His stat line of 11/4/6/2/1 is solid, but nothing like what happened before those key pieces returned. Luckily, the Celtics don't have any more games before the break, so this can be counted as an outlier when you're attempting to trade him.

White doesn't have the name value to get you a top-30 guy, so a one-for-one deal might not be the best way to go with him. It may be wise to use him in a two-for-one or two-for-two trade, and show off his value through the box scores from there.

Other Players to Sell

Josh Okogie, SG/SF, Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns have Kevin Durant now. They traded away their depth to do it. Enter Josh Okogie, a reserve prior to the monumental trade, who has now played an average of 35 minutes over their last three games. Kevin Durant is still injured, so Okogie is filling in that role for the time being.

I have him as a sell for this reason, along with the fact that I don't trust his offensive consistency moving forward. There's a reason he was in a reserve role this season, so I'm confident that this hot streak will come to an end soon. It's best to move off him, even if you market him as temporary value for a currently struggling team (maybe someone who currently rosters Kevin Durant).

That concludes my 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 18 Buy Low-Sell High. Be sure to check back in next week for the next edition!


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