2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 7 Buy Low-Sell High

by Greyson Adams
2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 7 Buy Low-Sell High

New players slump or go on a hot streak every week. For the most part, these don't last. This is why I bring to you my 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 7 Buy Low-Sell High. Moving on from or grabbing these players at the right time is key. I hope to help you all find the right time to do so.

For anyone new, I like to split up my buys/sells into three categories. This way you can understand how I view each player and the need to buy/sell them. My three categories are: buy/sell of the week, main buy/sell targets, and other players to buy/sell.

It is also important to remember that context matters! If your league is a points league, these selections may not apply to you. Make sure to check your scoring system to see how a player is doing. These selections are primarily geared towards 9-category leagues, also called 9cat, but can apply to points leagues as well.

Disclaimer: This article was written before the games on Thursday, December 1st. All statistics and selections will not be influenced by these games.

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 7 Buy Low-Sell High

Buy of the Week: Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks

Dejounte Murray has been a phenomenal player for both fantasy and real basketball since the start of the 2021-22 season. His success has continued into this season, but he's hit a bit of a rough patch over the last 2 weeks. He's been worse in almost every statistical category compared to his season average. The most significant categories are his field goal percentage (-3.4%), assists (-2.2), and points (-1.0).

Per NBA.com, Dejounte's drives per game on the season are at 12.4. Over the last two weeks, that has dropped down to 11.0. His potential assists on the season are at 12.0 per game, which has dropped to 10.4. This also coincides with him attempting 0.8 more catch-and-shoot attempts over the last two weeks. So, what does this mean? Murray is taking more shots outside and not going into the paint quite as much. For some players, this isn't a bad thing, but Murray has never been an outside shooter. He thrives off the inside game, be it midrange jumpers or driving layups. This opens up avenues for him to display his elite passing. Seeing that his potential assists have dropped doesn't mean that his teammates are just missing more, it means he's passing less often to players who are attempting shots.

So for Murray, this comes down to him going back to his game. If he starts to put more pressure on the rim again and shoot less from outside, this will likely lead to positive regression in all three categories I mentioned. Murray is by no means cheap, but his top 10-15 upside is worth paying the current price, which I'd estimate to be around the top 25-30 value.

Main Buy Targets

Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks

Jrue Holiday most recently had a very solid performance against the Knicks, but his last two weeks of play have not been what you hoped for out of the veteran guard. Over the last two weeks, Holiday is averaging 3.1 fewer points, 1.2 fewer rebounds, and 1.1 fewer assists He's also shooting 44% from the field this season, a mark that is more than 6% worse than last season. Jrue is clearly in a little slump, but now is the time to buy him.

Khris Middleton could potentially return as soon as Friday, December 2nd. Some might be skeptical of how this improves Holiday's fantasy outlook. With the second scoring option back, surely Holiday's value goes down? In some cases this is true, however, for Holiday it is the opposite. When Middleton is on the court, he is the second option, as we have established. This causes defenses to shift their focus away from Holiday and toward Middleton, giving the point guard better looks, and improving his field goal percentage. With this in mind, we will also see an uptick in his points. Jrue Holiday has always hovered around the 6-7 mark for assists, so this fluctuation is natural and Middleton won't affect that in his return.

So, while some may believe this is the time to sell Jrue Holiday with Middleton coming back, I believe the opposite. This may be an advantage for you if you look to grab him in a trade.

Fred VanVleet, PG, Toronto Raptors

In a recent game against the Dallas Mavericks, Raptors commentators made note that although starting point guard Fred VanVleet was back in the lineup, he was still sick and feeling the effects on his body. VanVleet himself said in an interview that he was still trying to get over his sickness, but that he wanted to be out there with the team. This is respectable enough, but unfortunately, it has led to a drop in his performance.

Over his last five games, VanVleet has averaged 15.8 points on 30% shooting from the field along with just 0.6 steals. He's not known as an efficient scorer, but even VanVleet is normally around the 40% shooting mark from the field. His steals numbers are also down drastically, which can also be attributed to his long-lasting illness. Trading for him now before he's fully recovered will get you the best return on value, especially in points leagues where efficiency doesn't matter.

Other Players to Buy

Quentin Grimes, SG/SF, New York Knicks

This one is for deeper leagues where Grimes is even rostered. Quentin Grimes impressed at Summer League but missed the first part of the season due to injury. He's been working his way back and looks to be cemented into the starting lineup. Over his last six games, Grimes has played 30.5 minutes per game. Head coach Tom Thibodeau's style is to play the players he likes big minutes, and it seems like he likes Grimes. The volume will come with these minutes, as Grimes isn't just your standard, catch-and-shoot guy who sits in the corner.

His value is basically zero right now, so you can get him on the cheap and hope the stats come with the minutes he's getting.

Sell of the Week: Kelly Oubre Jr., SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets

Kelly Oubre has had a great season, taking advantage of the various injuries plaguing the Hornets. His last five games have taken it to another level. Over his last five, Oubre has averaged 24.2 points on 19 shots, shooting 51.6% from the field, as well as 2.2 steals. This is obviously unsustainable, and if you can sell him off to another manager just using this stretch of games then good on you. But even if the other manager knows his current level of success is unsustainable, they may still believe that his current play this season is sustainable. I do not.

For most of the season now, Lamelo Ball has been out with ankle injuries. Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and Cody Martin have also been missing games. During this time, Oubre has been a constant, and he's thrived. Contrary to what some may believe, these players will get healthy and return to action. When they do, I don't think Oubre will see the same success he has been seeing.

Oubre with Lamelo Ball

Per Statmuse, Oubre's last five games in which he played alongside Lamelo Ball resulted in averages of 12.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.8 steals. He shoots just 36.9% on 13 shots a game. This is a small sample size, but it's important to note that he shoots considerably less and at a worse rate. This could be due in part to his role changing. Oubre has shot 17.1 shots per game this year, an increase of four shots per game when compared to his games with Ball. However, Oubre's three-point attempts only increase by one attempt per game. With Lamelo Ball on the court, Oubre's role is more of a 3-and-D player. This causes a drastic change to his shot quality, leading to a lower field goal percentage and fewer points.

These are worrisome stats, you may see an increase in threes, but a lot of Oubre's other stats are likely to decrease. This is the ideal time to sell. His value is at its peak right now, and it may be difficult but I would attempt to trade him for someone who you can be more confident in as a season-long player.

Main Players to Sell

Caleb Martin, SF/PF, Miami Heat

Martin has been one of the few players for the Heat to remain mostly healthy. The Heat have been struggling to have enough healthy players to even play some games. This has resulted in some massive minutes and usage for players like Martin who have been available. Martin has done a great job with his opportunity, but it won't last. When their roster is not in shambles, the Heat use Martin more sparingly on the offensive end. He still plays a lot of minutes but is prone to more dud games. Those dud games haven't been showing up recently, so now is the best time to move him before they come back up.

Mitchell Robinson, C, New York Knicks

Mitchell Robinson has returned to NBA action and the once-fantasy darling is showing why he had that title just a couple of years ago. Over his last four games, he has 12.3 points on 75.9% shooting. His supporting stats of 12 rebounds and 2.3 blocks are what fantasy managers dreamed of when they drafted him. It is possible that this is the start of an upward trend, but I have my doubts.

Robinson will have his explosive, multi-block games, but he also comes with the risk. Robinson has already missed eight games this. On top of that, in games that he does play, he is known to get into foul trouble quickly. Of the fourteen games Robinson has played in, he has had five or six fouls in four of those games. In those games, Robinson's minutes average out to just nineteen a game. With this comes a decrease in his stats, and as it becomes a trend, Coach Tom Thibodeau gets more frustrated. We tend to see more of Isiah Hartenstein when these instances start to become more common.

Robinson is a high-upside guy, but he comes with risk, so I would try to sell him at his current value. Even if he manages to continue this trend, you will have received some high-value players in return.

Other Players to Sell

Malik Beasley, SG/SF, Utah Jazz

Malik Beasley is ranked 64th over the last two weeks and 79th on the season in Yahoo!'s 9cat ranking system. This seems like a very nice ranking, and you can use it to trade him for a more valuable piece. Beasley's value is completely predicated on four categories: threes, points, steals, and a low turnover rate. The turnovers won't change, Beasley doesn't have the ball enough for that. However, the other three categories mentioned will fluctuate quite a bit, and it will likely be in the negative direction.

We have already seen an example of this with his most recent game against the Clippers, where he shot 1/9 from the field and failed to play for even twenty minutes. This is an ideal time to get rid of him. This last game can easily be written off as a fluke bad game. Just point them in the direction of his last five games before that and your point will be made.

 

That concludes the 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Week 7 Buy Low-Sell High. Make sure to be on the lookout next week for the next edition!


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