2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 13 Stock Watch

by Kyle Vaughan
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 13 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 13 Stock Watch.

Below I'll take a look at some players who are doing various things. And I'll tell you why I think those things have made said players more or less valuable.

Don’t forget to check out the other great Fantasy Hockey content at Fantasy Six Pack.

All statistics from DobberHockey unless otherwise stated. Thursday's games are not included as part of the analysis below.

2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 13 Stock Watch

Stock Up

Michael Amadio, LW, Vegas Golden Knights (12% rostered)

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The Vegas Golden Knights currently have six players on injured reserve. I'm not very smart, but that seems like too many to me. One guy who might not be so upset about the injury bug making its way through the Knights dressing room is Michael Amadio.

The 26-year-old former third-round pick currently finds himself on the top line in Vegas, alongside Chandler Stephensen and Mark Stone. He's also logging time on Vegas' first unit powerplay.

His ice time has been a little wonky. Over his last five games, it's ranged from 14:02 to 19:14. A swing of over five minutes is hard to ignore. The good news is that Amadio doesn't seem to care. He's producing regardless of playing time. He has nine points over his last seven games with 21 shots on net.

When Jack Eichel returns he will no doubt resume his role on the top line, and bump Amadio down the depth chart. When that happens Amadio will likely revert to waiver wire fodder. But there is currently no timetable for Eichel's return, even though he was eligible to come off the IR on December 17th.

Until the Golden Knights get their golden boy back, Amadio is a great streaming option.

Michael Rasmussen, LW, Detroit Red Wings (8% rostered)

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Detroit is another team with some weird things happening in their top six. Like Vegas, some of the shuffling is due to injury (Tyler Bertuzzi and Filip Zadina). But on Tuesday of this week, the Red Wings placed Jakub Vrana on waivers. The move is a bit of a head-scratcher. Vrana has been impressive when playing games with the Red Wings. Steve Yzerman inked Vrana to a three-year deal worth just over $15 million in 2021. The former 12th overall pick suffered an injury shortly thereafter and subsequently entered the NHL's player substance abuse program earlier this year.

Yzerman's missteps have been rare these last few years and given everything Vrana has been through there could be a number of good reasons for putting him on waivers. Whatever the rationale, it opens up a longer-term spot in Detroit's top-six that was slated to be filled when Vrana returned.

Enter Michael Rasmussen. The 23-year-old British Columbia native has been playing on Detroit's first line and first unit powerplay. He has seven points and 15 shots in his last five games. Over that span, he's consistently playing over 18 minutes a night with a healthy chunk coming on the powerplay. That includes over four minutes on New Year's Eve against Ottawa.

Rasmussen has a great opportunity to cement himself as Dylan Larkin's linemate over the next little while. Keep an eye on him and don't hesitate to pick him up if you need points and shots from your forward group.

Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars (2% rostered)

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Wyatt Johnson is tied with Matty Beniers for first place in rookie goals at the moment. Both young guns have 11 ginos on the season. The strong play of Johnston along with third-year center Tyler Dellandrea has been a pleasant surprise for the Dallas Stars, who currently sit atop the Central Division.

Johnston has been playing with Jamie Benn and Mason Marchment on Dallas' second line to the average tune of 14:31 a night with about 1:40 of that coming on the powerplay. Similar to Amadio, Johnston sees some pretty healthy variation in ice time. For example, on December 27th against Nashville he played 18:55 and had over four minutes on the man advantage.

In fact, in four of his last five games, Johnston has exceeded his season average for ice time. Given his production it would make sense the Stars are trying to get their 2021 first-round pick more playing time.

Johnston has five points and 13 shots over his last six games. Four of those points have been goals. If you are consistently losing your goals category or have some snipers on the IR at the moment, Wyatt Johnston is a great source of inexpensive goals.

Stock Down

JT Miller, C/W, Vancouver Canucks (99% rostered)

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It seems the latest punching bag in Vancouver is JT Miller. After scoring at a 1.24 point per game pace last season, Miller signed a seven-year, $56 million dollar deal with the Canucks in the off-season. Entering this year, the Canucks expected him to produce at a similar level and help Vancouver improve on their 2021-22 40-win campaign.

That has not happened. Miller's production has been down this year. But I think the bigger issue, as far as Canucks fans are concerned, is Miller's perceived lack of effort. Hockey Night in Canada panelist Kevin Bieksa flayed JT Miller for his poor two-way game on a broadcast last week.

He's also done a few things that make him look like a bad teammate.

So, what does all that mean from a fantasy perspective? Miller is currently producing at a 0.86-point per-game rate. Which honestly, isn't that bad. That's actually what he did in the 2020-21 season and would be the fourth-highest scoring rate of his career. Miller is shooting at the second-highest rate of his career as well and his shooting percentage is almost exactly in line with his career average.

One concern is that Miller only has 11 points this year at five-on-five in 37 games. That is brutal production from a guy who is 99 percent rostered. He is relying on powerplay time to produce, and there is some good news in that regard. Miller's ice time is healthy. He's getting over 20 minutes a night with nearly four minutes coming on the man advantage.

But his expected goals-for is the lowest it's been in five years. He is not getting dangerous scoring chances, and even when he is, he isn't scoring. That is particularly true at five-on-five.

One interesting thing is that Miller's Corsi for percentage relative to his teammates is 2.2 at even strength. Meaning when he is on the ice, the Canucks are driving play more than when he is on the bench.

Honestly, there isn't anything in the above that screams positive regression to me. In my opinion, what we are seeing from Miller, is what we are going to get for the rest of the season. He is currently on a cold streak, but that will end. He'll get hot for a few games, just like he did earlier this season, then cool off again. Don't expect a 100-point season out of Miller. But could he tickle 70 points? Maybe. That's viable fantasy production, even if it's not what you wanted when you drafted him.

Filip Hronek, D, Detroit Red Wings (78% owned)

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Filip Hronek has been a great find for fantasy managers this season. With powerplay incumbent Moritz Seider struggling,  Hronek has been given ample time on the powerplay and he's produced in that role. In 36 games, he has 26 points, 12 of which have come on the man advantage.

But therein lies the problem. Hronek needs to be on the first-unit powerplay to remain fantasy relevant. As of late, he has not been.

In Detroit's last three games, Hronek has been on the ice for 31 percent of Detroit's power play time. In the Red Wing's last game, Hronek saw only 11.1 percent (or 43 seconds) of that time, and he shared it with Jake Walman. It actually appears that Walman is the preferred number two option on the man-advantage as of late. In addition to his time shared with Hronek, Walman manned the powerplay solo for an additional 1:11.

As we have seen throughout this season, the Red Wings are happy to shuffle their powerplay units. Hronek could certainly resume his first-unit role in the next game. But his reduction in ice-time and the introduction of Walman to the mix make things a little less certain in the Motor City. As of now, Hronek's stock is down.

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