2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 15 Unsustainable Players

by Justin Cheng
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 15 Unsustainable Players

The voting for the NHL All-Star Game closes on Tuesday. We are now far enough along in the Fantasy season to truly take stock of the players that have shined. It is at this point in the season that we can answer the question with confidence - who are the all-stars of your fantasy team? Here to give some suggestions, is the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 15 Unsustainable Players.

If you are looking for further add/drop guidance, make sure to check out Kyle's stock watch or Michael's Weekly Planner from earlier this week.

And as always, if you have any players that you want me to cover in future weeks, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter - @jchengWPG.

Without further ado, let's jump into the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 15 Unsustainable Players!

2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 15 Unsustainable Players

Unsustainably High

David Pastrnak, RW, Boston Bruins (100% rostered)

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Boston has surprised everyone this season, myself included. With the aging veterans, I expected them to be a bubble team, too good to have a real shot at drafting Connor Bedard, but not good enough to make noise in the playoffs. However, we are now past the halfway mark of the season, and the Bruins have the President's Trophy all but locked up.

Leading the charge this season has been David Pastrnak - who is a UFA at the season's end. He is currently on a hot streak with 10 goals and a couple of assists in his last six games. While he may be an elite player, this production is not sustainable.

Pastrnak's shooting percentage (SH%) is at an unsustainable 31.3%, much higher than his 3-year average of 14.1%. Additionally, his on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) is sitting at 20.4% - double what he finished with last season.

While Pastrnak is undoubtedly due for a big raise this summer, it's important to keep in mind that his current production is not likely to continue at this pace. It may be prudent to take advantage of Pastrnak's current value and consider trading him while his numbers are inflated. I would look at targeting players that were drafted in the first round of Fantasy drafts. Players like Cale Makar or Mikko Rantanen may make good targets.

With Colorado's very friendly schedule during the Fantasy playoffs this year, this is the kind of trade that could win you your league.

Eeli Tolvanen, LW/RW, Seattle Kraken (21% rostered)

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After being scooped up on waivers by the Seattle Kraken from the Nashville Predators, Eeli Tolvanen has cemented himself as a reliable option for head coach Dave Hakstol. Over the past two weeks, the Kraken's commitment to the young player who was once dubbed Nashville's top prospect has paid off.

In his past eight games, Tolvanen has scored four goals and added two assists. This puts him on pace for 62 points - significantly higher than his career high of 25 points set last season.

Be wary though, as these strong results may be a mirage.

Tolvanen has been getting very lucky with his shots. Over the past two weeks, he has 2.71 goals-for-above-expected (GFAx), putting him on pace for nearly 28 GFAx over the course of 82 games. Even the best shooters in the league (think Alex Ovechkin) never finish a season with such a high GFAx.

Further, Tolvanen's ice time has been limited even on his new team. He has averaged just 13:21 per game while skating on the third line and second powerplay unit. This lack of ice time will make it difficult for Tolvanen to keep up his current scoring pace.

And if that was not enough, Tolvanen's oiSH% currently sits at 15.2% - a mark way too high for a third-line player in the NHL. I would expect this number to regress closer to the 8.9% mark he finished with last season.

When Nashville has a friendly schedule, Tolvanen would make a good streaming option in deeper leagues. However, I would caution against burning a roster spot on Tolvanen hoping that he can maintain his current level of production.

Unsustainably Low

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Vincent Trocheck, C, New York Rangers (72% rostered)

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Often when players switch teams during free agency, there is a period of adjustment. The first 20 games or so often are lackluster, but most good players eventually find their footing. Vincent Trocheck has been an anomaly in this pattern.

After signing with the New York Rangers this off-season, Trocheck started the season off hot, racking up 28 points in 35 games before the turn of the new year (66-point pace). Over the past two weeks, he has slowed down considerably, notching just one assist over his past seven games. While Trocheck has still been delivering in the peripheral categories (he has been racking up hits and shots), this kind of point production is significantly lower than what Fantasy GMs have come to expect.

I do believe that Trocheck has what it takes to turn it around soon.

As mentioned, Trocheck has been a shooting machine. Over this dry spell, he has 22 shots, putting him on pace for 258 shots over an 82-game schedule. This is a significant increase from the 170 shots he was on pace for last season.

Additionally, his oiSH% is currently sitting at just 5.8%, which is significantly lower than the 10.4% mark from last year. I would not expect this to continue playing alongside Artemi Panarin and/or Chris Kreider. Eventually, these elite finishers will find the back of the net, and Trocheck should start to collect points on the additional goals.

Furthermore, his IPP is sitting at just 20% - a number that simply won't remain that low as the season progresses. Expect some regression, closer to the 53.7% IPP he finished with last season.

Until Trocheck can figure it out on the scoresheet, he is still providing enough value in leagues that count hits to justify holding onto him. He is currently on pace for 187 hits, which is an impressive feat for a player who should easily reach the 60-point plateau.

Thomas Chabot, D, Ottawa Senators (81% rostered)

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Big things were expected from Ottawa this season, but so far the Senators have disappointed. With the off-season acquisitions of Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, I expected Ottawa's powerplay to see a massive bump this season. I expected Thomas Chabot, the Senators' number-one guy to benefit the most.

However, Chabot has battled injuries this season and has been underperforming as of late. He has just two assists in his past six games. This is not the kind of point production that inspires confidence in Fantasy GMs.

I would expect Chabot to find his footing sooner than later. (For what it's worth, I have been saying this all season, for a few seasons now about Chabot, and it has yet to come to fruition.)

The biggest thing Chabot has going for him is his time on ice. Averaging 25:22 over the past two weeks, Chabot ranks inside the top 10 players in terms of playing time. On the season, Chabot is averaging just over 26 minutes which is second only to Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche.

This time on ice inevitably leads to more shots, more blocks, and more hits, which makes Chabot a well-rounded option in most Fantasy formats.

Additionally, his oiSH% is sitting at just 8.6%, which is a drop from the 10.4% he finished with last season. I would expect this number to finish even higher with the improved supporting cast around him. In all but the shallowest leagues, GMs should hold onto Chabot and expect him to bounce back in the near future.

Sustainably High

Matt Duchene, RW, Nashville Predators (71% rostered)

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After a strong season last year, Matt Duchene has taken a bit of a step back.

Last season, Duchene had a career year, scoring 43 goals and adding 43 assists over 78 games. He finished the 2021-22 campaign on pace for 90 points - by far the best of his career. As a result, he was drafted very early in many drafts this year, hoping that he would manage to replicate this success.

While he has not managed to reach the same level of success, Duchene has been having himself a nice season. He has 11 goals and 23 assists through 43 games - good for a 65-point pace. As the right-wing position is by far the shallowest of the forward positions from a fantasy perspective, Duchene is a solid option in most leagues.

I don't expect Duchene to replicate his success from last year, but he should be able to maintain a 65-point pace, for the rest-of-season.

For starters, Duchene has -0.62 GFAx over the past two weeks and is shooting just 6.25% over that span. This is significantly lower than the 14.21 GFAx and the 18.8% SH% he managed to finish with last season. Even if he falls well short of the mark from last season, he should still be able to hit 20 goals and 65 points.

Additionally, Duchene has an IPP of 67.8% and an oiSH% of 9.7% over his past eight games, during which he is on a 62-point pace. Both of these figures are right in line with his average over the past three seasons (63.2% IPP, 11.1% oiSH%). This suggests to me that this is the baseline of what we could expect from the Predators' forward. If you are looking to make a right-wing addition, Duchene may be the player you are looking for.

Sustainably Low

Andrew Copp, C/RW, Detroit Red Wings (13% rostered)

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It was supposed to be a storybook reunion. The Michigan kid returns to the Motor City to lead the team out of the rebuilding phase, into contender status.

It could not have gone any differently.

After missing the start of the season due to off-season surgery, Andrew Copp has struggled to find the consistency he had with the Jets/Rangers last season. Following a 21-goal, 53-point (in just 72 games - a 60-point pace over a full 82 games), Copp has just 24 points in 42 games this season.

What is concerning is that this drop appears to be due to a drop in talent surrounding Copp, as opposed to any sort of regression on Copp's part. Last year, Copp played the majority of the season alongside elite players including Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Artemi Panarin. This year, his most frequent linemate shave been Michael Rasmussen (who?) and David Perron. Playing with less skilled players will lead to fewer points.

There also isn't much room for statistical regression for Copp. Over the past two weeks, he has been on a 47-point pace, matching his season pace. During that span, he is shooting at 12.5%, has an IPP of 57.1%, and an oiSH% of 13.2%. Compared to the 11.5% SH%, 65.4% IPP, and 10.0% oiSH% he put up last season, his current production looks unsustainably high.

In all but the deepest leagues, you can find a better value on the waiver wire.

Closing

And with that, we wrap up our coverage of the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 15 Unsustainable Players.

Every Tuesday throughout this season we will be looking at the hottest and coldest players in the league. If you have any players that you want me to cover, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter @jchengWPG.

Advanced stats and analytics are taken from Natural Stat Trick.


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