2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch

by Kyle Vaughan
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch.

Below I'll take a look at some players who are doing various things. And I'll tell you why I think those things have made said players more or less valuable.

Don’t forget to check out the other great Fantasy Hockey content at Fantasy Six Pack.

All statistics from DobberHockey unless otherwise stated. Wednesday's games are not included as part of the analysis below.

2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 16 Stock Watch

Stock Up

Anton Lundell, LW, Florida Panthers (31% rostered)

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The Florida Panthers have played more games than any other team in the Eastern Conference. They are tied for the most games played across the entire league with the Los Angeles Kings. That's bad news for Panthers fans.

The Panthers are currently on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go. Their only chance at sneaking in seems to be in the form of a wildcard spot, and probably the second one at that.

All the other teams currently vying for a wildcard berth have played fewer games than the Panthers. The Buffalo Sabres are a point back of the Cats and have four games in hand. The Penguins (who they just lost to in a 7-6 overtime barn burner) and Capitals are four points up on Florida with fewer games played (as of the writing of this article).

What I'm saying is, for the Panthers to make it to the playoffs things will have to really go their way over the last 32 games. Now they have shown flashes of good hockey. Recently, they beat the Avalanche, Sabres and Wild who range from good to respectable-ish.

Some of the aforementioned good hockey is coming from Anton Lundell, who has six points in his last six games. As we enter the third quarter of the season, the 21-year-old finds himself on Florida's top line next to Aleksander Barkov. Side note: how did Panthers fans not vote Barkov into the all-star game? What a bummer.

Lundell has played nearly 20 minutes in two of his last three games. He's also shooting more as of late with 11 shots over his last three games. Although he is not currently on the Panthers' top powerplay unit, he is still averaging over two minutes a night on the man advantage.

The young Finn established himself as an NHLer last year and showed exactly why he was drafted 12th overall in 2020. He has the skill and size to make an impact for the Panthers, and that's exactly what he's been doing as of late. Snag him and let him make a difference for your squad too.

Victor Olofsson, RW, Buffalo Sabres (28% rostered)

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So pretty soon Buffalo is going to be the best team in the NHL, right? Not this year and not next year, but it's coming. Isn't it? Tage Thompson (25 years old) looks like a world-beater. Dylan Cozens (21) looks unstoppable. Rasmus Dahlin (only 22, what?) is in the Norris conversation. Owen Power (20) is playing well as of late. Jack Quinn (21), JJ Peterka (21), and Peyton Krebs (21) all have the potential to be good NHL players.

The Sabres have four picks in the top two rounds next year. They have over $18 million in cap space this year and over $30 million projected for next year. The only questionable contract they have is Jeff Skinner's deal, which pays him $9 million a year for four more seasons. But Skinner is currently producing over a point per game.

This is a young team with size, skill, and money to burn. They have so much cap space this year that if they are out of the playoffs by the trade deadline they could take on a bad contract or two from a cap-strapped team for a high draft pick and add to their draft capital.

That could be a big if, though. The Sabres currently sit fourth in the Atlantic Division. They won't be catching the Lightning, Maple Leafs or Bruins. So they'll need a wildcard spot to get in. As of the writing of this article, they are three points behind both the Penguins and Capitals (but have two games in hand on Washington).

They are playing well as of late and find themselves on a four-game heater. One man who is contributing to said heater is Victor Olofsson. He has five points and twelve shots in his last five games. Olofsson is on the second powerplay unit but is still averaging 2:23 a night on the man advantage.

In the last three games, Olofsson's line with Casey Mittelstadt and Tyson Jost has led all other Sabres lines in time on ice, logging over 35 minutes together at even strength. In that span, they have also outproduced all other Buffalo lines at five-on-five. This is technically a third line, but it's getting first-line deployment based on minutes.

If you are in need of some offensive help, don't overlook Olofsson. He's producing on one of the most offensively potent teams in the league.

Tomas Tatar, RW, New Jersey Devils (13% rostered)

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So Jack Hughes does good hockey. If he continues to produce at his current rate, he'll break the 100-point mark, and he actually has a chance at 50 goals, too. If you don't already have Hughes on your team, you aren't going to get him. But you can be Hughes adjacent through the likes of Tomas Tatar.

For much of the first half of the season, Tatar played with Nico Hischier and/or Jesper Bratt. But recently, he has found himself playing right wing on a line with Hughes and Erik Haula.

I'd like to take a moment and say that I heard Erik Haula's nickname is 'Famer'. Haula Famer. If that is true, it is a nickname of the highest quality and I salute those responsible.

Tatar hasn't exactly cemented himself on the top line just yet.  He only has five points in his last ten games. But he shoots, hits and takes penalties at serviceable rates. That peripheral stat coverage should get you by if Tatar goes a few games without a point. As long as he is next to Lil Jizzy (that's the godawful nickname PK Subban gave Hughes), he is worth your time.

Stock Down

Jonathan Huberdeau, RW, Calgary Flames (94% rostered)

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I was convinced that Flames general manager Brad Treliving had pulled a miracle when he landed Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazim Kadri this past off-season. Even with Huberdeau's slow start (more on that in a bit) in Calgary, and Tkachuk having a career year in Florida, I still think the Flames won this trade.

Mackenzie Weegar hasn't been exactly what the Flames hoped he would be offensively, but defensively, he's been great. Weegar has played the most minutes against elite competition of any Flames defenseman and has a DFF% of 54.8. DFF stands for dangerous Fenwick for. It's like Fenwick, but it accounts for how dangerous a shot is when it's taken. Puck IQ is an excellent site to view a team's DFF% against various levels of competition.

In addition to Huberdeau and Weegar, the Flames got a first-round pick and prospect. Absolute magic by Treliving.

There's no doubt when Calgary landed Huberdeau they hoped he would continue to produce at rates similar to his 2021-22 season. Huberdeau produced at a blistering 1.44 points per game mark, good for 115 points and tied for second in the league in total points. Tied with who, you ask? None other than Johnny Hockey.

In fantasy leagues, most managers had expectations similar to the Flames brass. That led Huberdeau to be drafted in the mid-first round, around guys like Nikita Kucherov, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen and Andrei Vasilevskiy (depending on league settings).

Unfortunately, Huberdeau is having his worst offensive season since 2014-15. He's producing at almost half the rate of last year with 0.71 points per game. He is shooting 1.2 shots per game less than 2021-22.

Huberdeau's shooting percentage at all strengths and at five-on-five are slightly low, but not to a degree that you can expect significant positive regression. His PDO and secondary assist rate are at or near his career averages.

Huberdeau has a season average ice-time per game of 17:02 and has played less than that in five of his last seven games.  And while he still gets some healthy burn on the Flames' top powerplay unit, there is little here that leads me to believe a big second half is coming.

I wouldn't trade him unless you get something obscene in return. Even with everything I've outlined above, I have a hard time completely writing off Huberdeau given how dominant he was last year. But you'll need to adjust your expectations for the remainder of the season. He is not the fantasy asset he was last year.

Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers (53% rostered)

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This time last year I would have bet big money that in January 2023 Evan Bouchard would be the bonafide first powerplay unit quarterback for the Oilers and Tyson Barrie would be playing somewhere else or getting third-line minutes with some time on the secondary powerplay. Welp, I would have lost that bet.

Tyson Barrie is having a solid year as a top-four defenceman with the Oilers and first-unit powerplay quarterback.  He has 32 points (21 have come on the powerplay), is on the ice for nearly 20 minutes a night, and is playing maybe the best defensive hockey of his life. The Oilers have the best powerplay percentage in the league and there is no reason to adjust anything with their man-advantage deployment.

Bouchard has had some serious wobble throughout this season but has found a sweet spot as of late next to 2019 eight-overall pick Philip Broberg. He does average about 1:48 on the powerplay, but hasn't hit that mark in four of his last five games. In Edmonton's last game against Vancouver, Bouchard saw three seconds of powerplay time. No bueno.

He has 18 points through 48 games but hasn't registered a point in his last five outings. Bouchard does provide peripheral coverage in the form of hits and shots, but not at rates that make him rosterable when he isn't producing offensively. Time to cut bait with Bouchard. I'd be perusing the waiver wire for better options on defence, like Calen Addison or Adam Boqvist.

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