2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 17 (Part 2) Unsustainable Players

by Justin Cheng
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 17 (Part 2) Unsustainable Players

I hope you are enjoying the short break. Depending on your league, your current matchup may be running across two weeks due to the All-Star festivities this weekend. With all of the other GMs checked out due to the lack of NHL action, this is your chance to get ahead. Sit back and buckle up as we dive into the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 17 (Part 2) Unsustainable Players.

As there have not been very many games since the last Unsustainable article, this week's piece will be a little bit condensed!

If you are looking for further add/drop guidance, make sure to check out Kyle's stock watch or Michael's Weekly Planner from earlier this week.

And as always, if you have any players that you want me to cover in future weeks, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter - @jchengWPG.

Without further ado, let's jump into the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 17 (Part 2) Unsustainable Players!

2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 17 (Part 2) Unsustainable Players

Unsustainably High

Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders (92% rostered)

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I would be remiss if I did not mention the biggest news this week.

With the trade deadline less than a month away, the first big trade chip fell from the table. Vancouver sent Bo Horvat off to the Big Apple in exchange for Anthony Beauvillier, a first-round pick, and the once-highly touted prospect, Aatu Räty.

From a Fantasy perspective, the biggest impact is obviously to Horvat himself. Rostered in nearly all leagues, he has been found money this year. His 31 goals and 23 assists through 49 games have him on pace for career highs in goals and points. With Vancouver, he was playing just under 21 minutes per night, averaging 2.9 shots per game, and shooting at 21.7%.

For starters, it is highly unlikely that Horvat can sustain a 20+% shooting percentage down the stretch. His highest shooting percentage of his career came last season when he shot at 16.0%. By way of contrast, he has averaged just a 14.0% shooting percentage over his career.

On the Islanders, I would expect two things to happen.

First, he will be playing fewer minutes. With four quality NHL centermen, the Islanders are stacked at center ice. While early signs suggest that Horvat will assume 1C duties with Mathew Barzal moving over to the wing, New York's depth will inevitably lead to less time on ice.

As well, the Islanders do not have quite the same supporting cast as Vancouver did. While Barzal is an elite playmaker in his own right, Horvat's potential linemates cannot match the raw skill of Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Brock Boeser.

Unsustainably Low

Anthony Beauvillier, LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks (3% rostered)

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While Horvat was the center of the deal that took place this week, Beauvillier was a key piece headed back in the other direction. The 25-year-old is in the second year of a three-year contract he signed with the Islanders, and projects to be a fixture in Vancouver's top-6.

The former late-first-round pick has had an inconsistent career thus far. His best season came back in 2019-20 when he put up 39 points in 68 games. Since then, he has struggled. This year, he is on pace for just 33 points.

In shallower leagues, it is probably safe to pass on Beauvillier for now. His ceiling is likely a 55-point guy, which, in a lot of leagues, is not particularly valuable. However, in leagues with 14+ teams or leagues that have a salary cap, Beauvillier may be a good depth option.

On the Islanders, Beauvillier was playing on the third line alongside Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Due to the Canucks' lack of depth, he will be seeing a significant bump in deployment as he is projected to play alongside Miller on the second line. This will also likely result in an increase in ice time from the 15:47 he has averaged so far this season.

Further, if Brock Boeser gets traded as many believe is likely, Beauvillier may see a further increase in deployment. Do not be surprised if Beauvillier is playing on the Canucks' first line alongside Pettersson by the season's end.

Sustainably High

Max Domi, C/LW/RW, Chicago Blackhawks (24% rostered)

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Max Domi signed a one-year contract with the Blackhawks this season in a last-ditch effort to revitalize his career. From Chicago's perspective, it was a great deal (just $3 million AAV) for a player that would almost certainly be flipped to a contender at the deadline.

So far this season, Domi has done all that's been asked of him, and more. He has 14 goals and 21 assists through 48 games. This puts him on pace for 60 points - the best mark since his 72-point breakout season with the Montreal Canadiens in 2018-19. While Patrick Kane is getting all of the Chicago media attention, Domi has quietly put up more points.

What makes Max Domi an interesting target is the fact that he is likely to be dealt to a contender within the next few weeks. Nearly any team that Domi ends up on will provide him with better linemates than Philipp Kurashev and Taylor Raddysh. This should ensure that at the very least Domi maintains his 60-point pace.

Domi's underlying numbers seem to suggest sustainability. The Blackhawks' forward is shooting at 12.8% - only marginally higher than the 10.4% he has averaged over his career and lower than the 13.8% he put up with the Canadiens.

Additionally, his secondary assist rate is just a hair over 50%. Meanwhile, his IPP is sitting at 66.0% - lower than 68.4% last season. These two points combined suggest that Domi's production this season is not coming from a plethora of lucky bounces.

Sustainably Low

Casey DeSmith, G, Pittsburgh Penguins (25% rostered)

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When it comes to fantasy, goaltending is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

Over the past month, Tristan Jarry has been in and out of the lineup as he has battled a lingering injury. On Sunday, Penguins' GM Ron Hextall gave an update on Jarry's health, stating that he is still considered day-to-day.

In Jarry's absence, Casey DeSmith has been having a rough go. He has just two wins in his last 7 games, going 2-3-2 during that stretch. He has allowed three or more goals in all but two of those games.

Looking forward, DeSmith has very little Fantasy value. This is especially true given that goaltending is the easiest position to stream on any given night based on which goalies move in and out of the lineup.

When Jarry returns, DeSmith will be demoted back to typical backup duties. He will likely only get into game action every other week. Additionally, if the rumours about the Pens' intention to acquire another goalie are true, DeSmith could find himself in the AHL before the trade deadline.

Closing

And with that, we wrap up our coverage of the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 17 (Part 2) Unsustainable Players.

Every Tuesday throughout this season we will be looking at the hottest and coldest players in the league. If you have any players that you want me to cover, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter @jchengWPG.

Advanced stats and analytics are taken from Natural Stat Trick.


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